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Malcolm,
Spot on. I agree 100%.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, malcolm Crouch <malcolm.croucher@xxx> wrote:
>
> Its a funny Conversation this .
>
> If All systems will eventually fail then
>
> The underlying theory must be wrong .... so therefore dow theory , elliot
> wave theory , fundamental economic thoery ect must all be wrong ... except
> these are the underpinning of most practitioners. which leads us to say then
> All textbookss are wrong and all academics are wrong .. which say all
> universities are wrong .....
>
> So therefore most education in the financial markets will eventually fail
> ...
>
> So this could bring us to a conversation about the random walk of stock
> prices ...... which would lean on a quantitve side ... which would fail .
>
> however there are practictions making from -100% to plus 1000% per annum
> .... so i would say not all
> Systems but rather the Individuals designing the system fail .
>
> Perhaps the education fail in a sense...
> The learners fail ...
> The work experience fails
> so perhaps all that is needed is the correct hard work and the correct
> study and the correct experience
> (which would be very difficult with limited resources )
>
>
>
> I would imagine you are defining the problem wrong, when actually the
> problem is the greater environment not the system.
>
> i think a classic example of this is the current weakness in the market in a
> way the education system has failed , the regulatory system has failed and
> executive management has failed (to name a few )
>
> The world has a long way still to go ..... we are a young civilisation .
>
>
> Regards
>
> Malcolm
>
>
>
>
> On Thu, Jun 4, 2009 at 10:01 AM, Herman <psytek@xxx> wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > Brian, often people waste a lot of time trying to call something black or
> > white; you learn more if you try looking at the grey stuff in between.
> >
> >
> > Of course there are 'systems' that last forever. Buy-n-hold, trend
> > following, or rotational trading are trading systems to some. It all depends
> > on your criteria of what makes a trading system. Then there are highly
> > optimized trading systems that will, as one would expect, fade in and out of
> > Performance. Some systems will, with some discretionary input, keep working
> > forever while for a true mechanical trader these systems will fail. What may
> > be a great trading idea to one person may be a joke to another.
> >
> >
> > However, if you must have an answer I think it is best to err on the safe
> > side and say that ALL systems will eventually fail. Overconfidence in any
> > system may end up costing you dearly.
> >
> >
> > Best regards,
> >
> > herman
> >
> >
> > Wednesday, June 3, 2009, 9:32:35 PM, you wrote:
> >
> >
> > > You are sitting on the fence Herman ... that can become a bit
> > uncomfortable;-)
> >
> >
> > > In the scientific method all axioms are temporary and it only takes one
> >
> > > verifiable case to reject the null hypothesis of the current axiom.
> >
> >
> > > We already have a list of candidate systems that people claim have
> > remained successful over decades.
> >
> >
> > > Declare yourself ... do ALL systems fail because they are discovered and
> > traded to failure or not?
> >
> >
> > > Are you are an evidenced based trader or some other kind of trader?
> >
> >
> > > Because breakout systems were made famous by the Turtles and they now
> > fail
> >
> > > for some traders does that mean all breakout systems fail for all traders
> > and
> >
> > > all instruments all of the time (how can anyone know the answer to that
> > question one way or another?)
> >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
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>
> --
> Malcolm A.B Croucher
>
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