Hi Ton - It is the norm for me, when I start
an optimization, for AB to tell me that it will take several months or more to
run, I think I remember a few where it said 50 or 100 *years*, something like
that. But with the IO engines you can go ahead and run it anyway, for
me they always finish probably within an hour, sometimes much
quicker. The times can vary a bit, I think maybe it depends on where in
the opt space they start, what paths they take from there and what it leads them
to... Sometimes they will finish and report results in 5 or 10 minutes,
other times can be an hour or maybe a little more, most will be somewhere in the
middle. At least that is how it always works for me. I
definitely agree with you, I am not looking for peaks like the one you
posted either but sometimes there are smaller and more profitable plateaus
that are tradable for months and I like to at least find them and know they
are there...
Steve
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, February 04, 2009 11:27
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] SPSO vs Trib vs
CMAE, was: random optimization?
Your are talking about ".... up into the
trillions and more.". How are you handling the time problem ? These
should be optimizations of several months ... Even with CMAE etc. it will be
still a question of weeks ( about 1/4 of the time ). Let's say I want
to optimize 100 different systems on 10 different Symbols or 1.000
combinations times your trillions. It's a life time. I just do not have a solution for this. Do you
?
And again optimization on points is not what I
would like to do. Because of the underneath picture ... I would like to
optimize on areas in stead of points. I hoped to get this with CMAE.
The result was negative ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, February 04, 2009
12:21 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] SPSO vs Trib
vs CMAE, was: random optimization?
Hi Ton - The 2 MA crossover system was just a
simple example for illustration purposes. In real life I would do an
exhaustive opt on that one since it would only have maybe 100 x 100 = 10,000
combinations, and perhaps the small optimization space is why CMAE was
able to find the peak. The systems I test with the IO
engines generally have at least millions of possible combos and
some up into the trillions and more. FWIW, I have done lots of these tests
and I will have to stand by my earlier remarks because that is my
honest experience, but perhaps others may see different
results...
Steve
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 3:40
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] SPSO vs Trib
vs CMAE, was: random optimization?
Interesting ...
..... results, then ran lots of IO tests and compared them to the
exhaustive results to see what the IO's found and also what they
missed. You could say that CMAE seems
to take the "safe" approach, IMHO it finds the broad plateaus pretty
well but as you might guess they are usually far from the most
profitable. In my experience, the other two IO engines
will generally find those too but they also find a lot of the smaller
and more profitable ones, which you can then run a mini exhaustive opt
on to get a more complete picture ....
Is that true ? Does CMAE really take the
'safe' approach ? Look to following
picture and see what CMAE gave me as an
optimum ...
I got the left peak and hoped to get
the plateau in the middle ...
Regards, Ton.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009
7:54 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] SPSO vs
Trib vs CMAE, was: random optimization?
Hi Steve - Once you have done an IO and found some results that look
promising, then you can run a mini exhaustive opt if you want. For a
simple example, you run an IO on a MA crossover system, testing both
MA's with periods from 1 to 100. You won't see all possible combos
reported but maybe the results show that MA1=10 and MA2=20 might be
good. So to see all the other values in that neighborhood you could
then run a little exhaustive opt, say MA1 = 5 thru 15 and MA2 = 15
thru 25, something like that, which will run in a reasonable
time.
To test the built-in IO engines, I ran a few exhausive opts
and saved the results, then ran lots of IO tests and compared them
to the exhaustive results to see what the IO's found and also what
they missed. You could say that CMAE seems to take the "safe"
approach, IMHO it finds the broad plateaus pretty well but as you
might guess they are usually far from the most profitable. In my
experience, the other two IO engines will generally find those too
but they also find a lot of the smaller and more profitable ones,
which you can then run a mini exhaustive opt on to get a more complete
picture.
Regarding the trade-off you mentioned, I would think
it is a matter of personal taste. How greedy are you? 8 - ) How
risk-averse? I am inclined to try the smaller and higher plateaus
first, as long as they have a little play on each side and are doing
well right now, and knowing that they will fail eventually and I
need to keep a close eye on them... Good
luck!
Steve
----- Original Message ----- From:
"Steve Davis" <_sdavis@xxxxxxcom> To:
<amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com> Sent:
Monday, February 02, 2009 5:01 PM Subject: [amibroker] SPSO vs Trib
vs CMAE, was: random optimization?
> Steve, > > I
would like to hear more about your system optimization process.
How > were you able to determine the size of the plateaus
discovered by the > built-in optimizers, and how did you decide
which solutions had the > best trade-off between plateau size and
profitability? > > Thanks, > another
Steve > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"Steve Dugas" <sjdugas@xxx> wrote: >> >> Hi
- I have spent lots of time playing with the built-in
intelligent >> optimizers, in my experience SPSO will return
the same results every > time if >> the settings are the
same. Trib and CMAE will probably return different >> results
each time. FWIW, I find CMAE to be the worst of the three and
I >> don't use it anymore, it will find plateaus but nearly
always misses > the >> much more profitable but smaller
plateaus. Using a quad-core I can > run 4 >> simultaneous
instances and I find that by running 1 SPSO and 3 > Trib's
and >> then comparing the 4 results together, it will generally
point me to > some >> pretty good param values. Good
luck! >> >> Steve >> >> -----
Original Message ----- >> From: "gabriel_id@..."
<finance@xxx> >> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com> >>
Sent: Monday, February 02, 2009 7:25 AM >> Subject: [amibroker]
Re: random optimization? >> >> >> >
OK.. >> > >> > Can u give me what type of engine
and with what kind of settings will >> > get the same
results when i optimize this lines: >> > >> > N
= Optimize("N-minutes", 33, 1, 60, 1); >> >
TimeFrameSet( N * in1Minute ); >> > MA1 = MA( Close,
10); >> > MA2 = MA( Close, 20); >> > BuySignal =
Cross( MA1, MA2); >> > sellSignal = Cross( MA2,
MA1); >> > TimeFrameRestore(); >>
> >> > Buy = TimeFrameExpand(BuySignal ,
N*in1Minute); >> > Sell =
TimeFrameExpand(sellSignal , N*in1Minute); >>
> >> > I tried cmae, 5 , 1000, have variable results.. on
walkforward >> > i tried spso, 5, 1000, same variables
results.. >> > and also trib, 5, 1000.. >>
> >> > >> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"Mike" <sfclimbers@> wrote: >> >> >>
>> Tribes is a non exhaustive optimizer, meaning that it does
not >> >> evaluate every possible
combination. >> >> >> >> As such, it is
possible that it will find different "optimal" >> >>
solutions every time, depending on the nature of the surface
being >> >> optimized. For example; If the surface has
many similar peaks, it may >> >> land on a different one
each time (local optima) instead of the one >> >> true
optimal solution (global optima). >> >> >>
>> Try increasing the number of Runs and/or MaxEval. If you have
more >> >> than 2 or 3 optimization variables, 1000
MaxEval is not enough. >> >> >> >> http://amibroker.com/guide/h_optimization.html >>
>> >> >> Mike >> >> >>
>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"gabriel_id@" <finance@> wrote: >> >>
> >> >> > hi there, >> >>
> >> >> > i am a bit confused, i run the same
optimization process.. on same >> >> > data range..
and i got different results each time :) >> >>
> >> >> > and the engine was trib, 5,
1000... >> >> > >> >> >
thx, >> >> > GV >> >> > >>
>> >> > >> > >> > >>
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********************* > TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT from
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