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[amibroker] Re: OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ?



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>The reasoning changes all the time.  whatever fills the page.

The quota to be filled, by the deadline, is the media message 
(apologies to Marshall McCluhan).

> Oil and markets now move parallel. 

And then some .... that is what I am finding eerie .... watching the 
major markets, at the moment, is like watching synchronized swimming.

>I thought the average production costs of oil is 70$/barrel. Guess 
>today it's cheaper.

Who nows?

My point is that reality and the Gulf Producers spin could be worlds 
apart.

>  Cheap oil is bad, it means recession or worse depression :)   

Just thinking out loud here .... let's face it ... if my predictions 
go better than 50/50 I am a statistical aberrhation or a scientific 
freak!

Oil at $140 was BAD ...

and now oil at $70 is BAD?

There is no good news in there anywhere ... no companies or 
industries that will increase earnings, in the next quarter or two, 
based on $70 oil?

Re interest rates and economies ... below 4%, with 3% inflation, does 
a 50bp rate cut move mountains.... this is headline news?

Re the US interest rates ... I am suggesting that with rates == 
inflation anyone and everyone will have loaded up to the hilt a long 
time ago and fresh cuts aren't going to stimulate anyone too much.

By comparison, cheap oil doesn't get a headline anywhere?

Specifically I am speculating that oil may well hover around about 
$70 for the next 3 months, maybe even 6 months.

Now that's either a brave or foolish prediction.

brian_z


--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Edward Pottasch" <empottasch@xxx> 
wrote:
>
>  Cheap oil is bad, it means recession or worse depression :)   The 
reasoning changes all the time.  whatever fills the page. Oil and 
markets now move parallel.  I thought the average production costs of 
oil is 70$/barrel. Guess today it's cheaper.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
>   ----- Original Message ----- 
>   From: brian_z111 
>   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
>   Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 3:02 PM
>   Subject: [amibroker] Re: OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ?
> 
> 
>   Sounds like you are on the USD (smile!)
> 
>   The news is out on the net - it's 50 bp (inflation heading down 
but 
>   still above ECB target rate?).
> 
>   Sorry Ed but the FX market appears to be indifferent to such news.
> 
>   There is an eerie hush around world markets right now .... 
strangest 
>   response of all is that no one is interested in the positive 
effect 
>   oil at $70 has on industrial economies ... it seems to be trading 
in 
>   a band capped at 70 (is oil in the tent?).
> 
>   brian_z
> 
>   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@> 
>   wrote:
>   >
>   > 150 bp cut by BoE - nice:-) Do they know something we don't 
know 
>   yet? 
>   > Time for 100 bp cut by ECB ?
>   > 
>   > Best regards,
>   > Tomasz Janeczko
>   > amibroker.com
>   > ----- Original Message ----- 
>   > From: "Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
>   > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>   > Sent: Friday, October 24, 2008 8:03 AM
>   > Subject: [amibroker] OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ?
>   > 
>   > 
>   > > Hello,
>   > > 
>   > > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart:
>   > > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
>   > > 
>   > > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently 
at 
>   1.5%)
>   > > 
>   > > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
>   > > 
>   > > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps 
of 
>   Japan central bank in '90s.
>   > > 
>   > > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, 
much 
>   faster than FED, IMHO. 
>   > > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see 
EURUSD 
>   = 1.0 soon
>   > > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency 
for 
>   months to come.
>   > > 
>   > > Any thoughts?
>   > > 
>   > > Best regards,
>   > > Tomasz Janeczko
>   > > amibroker.com
>   > > 
>   > > ------------------------------------
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>



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