>The reasoning changes all the time. whatever fills the
page.
The quota to be filled, by the deadline, is the media message
(apologies to Marshall McCluhan).
> Oil and markets now move
parallel.
And then some .... that is what I am finding eerie ....
watching the
major markets, at the moment, is like watching synchronized
swimming.
>I thought the average production costs of oil is
70$/barrel. Guess
>today it's cheaper.
Who nows?
My point
is that reality and the Gulf Producers spin could be worlds
apart.
> Cheap oil is bad, it means recession or worse
depression :)
Just thinking out loud here .... let's face it ... if my
predictions
go better than 50/50 I am a statistical aberrhation or a
scientific
freak!
Oil at $140 was BAD ...
and now oil at $70
is BAD?
There is no good news in there anywhere ... no companies or
industries that will increase earnings, in the next quarter or two,
based on $70 oil?
Re interest rates and economies ... below 4%,
with 3% inflation, does
a 50bp rate cut move mountains.... this is
headline news?
Re the US interest rates ... I am suggesting that with
rates ==
inflation anyone and everyone will have loaded up to the hilt a
long
time ago and fresh cuts aren't going to stimulate anyone too
much.
By comparison, cheap oil doesn't get a headline
anywhere?
Specifically I am speculating that oil may well hover around
about
$70 for the next 3 months, maybe even 6 months.
Now that's
either a brave or foolish prediction.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"Edward Pottasch" <empottasch@...>
wrote:
>
> Cheap
oil is bad, it means recession or worse depression :) The
reasoning
changes all the time. whatever fills the page. Oil and
markets now move
parallel. I thought the average production costs of
oil is 70$/barrel.
Guess today it's cheaper.
>
>
>
>
>
>
----- Original Message -----
> From: brian_z111
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com
> Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 3:02 PM
> Subject:
[amibroker] Re: OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ?
>
>
>
Sounds like you are on the USD (smile!)
>
> The news is out on
the net - it's 50 bp (inflation heading down
but
> still above ECB
target rate?).
>
> Sorry Ed but the FX market appears to be
indifferent to such news.
>
> There is an eerie hush around world
markets right now ....
strangest
> response of all is that no one
is interested in the positive
effect
> oil at $70 has on industrial
economies ... it seems to be trading
in
> a band capped at 70 (is
oil in the tent?).
>
> brian_z
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"Tomasz Janeczko" <groups@>
> wrote:
> >
> >
150 bp cut by BoE - nice:-) Do they know something we don't
know
>
yet?
> > Time for 100 bp cut by ECB ?
> >
> >
Best regards,
> > Tomasz Janeczko
> > amibroker.com
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Tomasz Janeczko"
<groups@>
> > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com>
>
> Sent: Friday, October 24, 2008 8:03 AM
> > Subject: [amibroker]
OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ?
> >
> >
> >
> Hello,
> > >
> > > Did you see this daily
effective FED rate chart:
> > > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
>
> >
> > > Usually effective rate follows closely target
rate (currently
at
> 1.5%)
> > >
> > > In
recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
> > >
>
> > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps
of
> Japan central bank in '90s.
> > >
> > > Now
EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast,
much
>
faster than FED, IMHO.
> > > If situation evolves in that
direction we are going to see
EURUSD
> = 1.0 soon
> > >
and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency
for
>
months to come.
> > >
> > > Any thoughts?
>
> >
> > > Best regards,
> > > Tomasz
Janeczko
> > > amibroker.com
> > >
> > >
------------------------------------
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