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I have 2 simple questions for u:
What set of rules do you use to recognize a person's face?
What set of rules do you use to recognize a person's voice?
Bill
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> From the 2nd article:
>
> "Paul Taglia sees high-probability Window set-ups that the rest of us
> don't. I've seen him do this for nearly two years. He can't explain
> it...he simply says that he's looked at thousands and thousands of
> charts over his career and some charts simply look better to him than
> others. We once asked him to keep a journal to see if we could
> systematize what he saw. It was a useless exercise. He sees it but he
> can't explain it."
>
>
> According to Occams Law the simplest explanation is usually the best.
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simplicity
>
> Possible explanations, of Paul Taglia's discretionary style are:
>
> a) He can 'see', or sense, the future in the charts,
> b) he has a set of rules that he learnt in the past (based on
> experience) and they have become second nature - possibly he has
> forgotten what they are or when he learnt them (or at least some of
> them)
> c) he has a set of rules, and he knows that, but this is an excellent
> posture to take if his game plan is never to reveal them to anyone
> d) he has a set of rules but has a playful nature OR likes to take
> the mickey out of his associates OR has a superiority complex and
> disdains the idiots who surround him
> e) he has an inferiority complex and needs the boost that comes from
> the adulation of others - this is an excellent strategy to establish
> mystique as a trader and achieve legendary status
> f) it is a great way to market ones employment value in a transient
> workplace (its a resume that can't be questioned to any extent either)
> g) some combination of a-f
> h) he has a set of rules (some conscious, some sub-conscious) but he
> can't be bothered explaining them (it is a form of energy
> conservation - an alternavtive version of this is that he could be a
> very focused trader and has eliminated the non-essentials, like
> defining his style OR chatting about his style.
>
> BTW irrationality is the common name for the shadow (I used the
> symbolic name).
>
> There is no irrationality in maths, programming etc which is probably
> why I quite like programmers etc.
>
> Trading myths are born out of, and perpetuated by irrationality.
>
> brian_z
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "wavemechanic" <timesarrow@>
> wrote:
> >
> >
> http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/lcbattlep/082720
> 04-39801.cfm
> >
> >
> http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/swingtrading/commentary/lcbattlep/
> 09022004-39899.cfm
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: sidhartha70
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 10:52 AM
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: 'Rule Based' versus 'Discretionary'
> trading...
> >
> >
> > I think you're right Brian. We do all use rules of some sort.
> >
> > But I guess discretionary traders don't use 'hard and fast' rules
> and
> > can't always define the same set of rules by which they choose to
> > define an entry or exit.
> >
> > For example, as we all know, something as simple as defining a
> trend
> > programatically can be more problematic as you might at first
> think.
> > However, a good trader can see very quickly what state the market
> is
> > in by looking at various time frame of chart.
> >
> > Likewise, divergences of various sorts can be easy to see with the
> > naked eye but difficult to code in their entirety.
> >
> > Like driving a car, or a golf swing, you learn the 'rules' but
> when
> > you get really good you are no longer thinking rules... you've
> > effectively let go of the rules and are just 'doing'...
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> wrote:
> > >
> > > Here is my definition:
> > >
> > > We are all rule based traders.
> > >
> > > Mechanical Traders are a specialist group who have programmed
> > > computers to autotrade their rules OR automatically announce
> their
> > > rules via computer communications (audio, email, chart prompts,
> > > spoken text etc).
> > >
> > > I am prepared to continue the discussion with any seers,
> inituitives
> > > etc, who come forward, and adjust my definition to meet
> anything new
> > > that comes out of that.
> > >
> > > In advance I admit to the possibility of exceptions to the rule.
> > >
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > >Descretionary traders make decisions that are based on
> personal
> > > > >knowledge and circumstances, perhaps using many factors
> unknown to
> > > > >themselves. Like which journal they read the night before.
> > > >
> > > > This is the nub of the question for sure, and the point that
> I am
> > > > investigating.
> > > >
> > > > I suspect that when they (self-nominated DT's) think they are
> > > making
> > > > discretionary decisions they are in fact making rule based
> > > decisions.
> > > >
> > > > That is why I asked for specific examples of 'discretionary'
> > > decision
> > > > making e.g. I haven't seen Bilbo's chart yet but I consider
> it
> > > highly
> > > > unlikely that the decision about whether a trend is in place
> is a
> > > > discretionary decision - I can define a trend in several
> different
> > > > ways - all of them can readily be written as a rule (in words
> or
> > > with
> > > > code) - I don't care if the definitions are 'correct' or not
> as
> > > long as
> > > > the system that they are part of works i.e. my rules for a
> trend
> > > depend
> > > > on the context.
> > > >
> > > > As Dennis said, our rules might be difficult to program,
> causing us
> > > not
> > > > to automate the trade, but mentally we are still running the
> rules
> > > and
> > > > if we are honest with ourselves we do know what the rules are.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >For a novice traders to try and mimic the techniques (of
> > > Discretionary
> > > > >Traders) without
> > > > >having similar backgrounds merits caution.
> > > >
> > > > What I am suggesting is that, over time, the sub-conscious
> mind
> > > will
> > > > automate what was intially habitual conscious behaviour, and
> even
> > > make
> > > > some improvements on it, so that 'we' can skip the conscious
> part
> > > for
> > > > some 'tasks' e.g. driving the car becomes second nature.
> > > >
> > > > That won't happen for new traders, in a short time, so they
> do need
> > > to
> > > > persevere, be patient and not try to mimic people who have
> been
> > > around
> > > > for years.
> > > >
> > > > IMO formal (written) rules based
> trading/backtesting/optimization
> > > is
> > > > the best place to start - it grinds the basic lessons in very
> well.
> > > >
> > > > If anyone can look at a chart, and without recourse to any
> rules,
> > > know
> > > > which way the price is going to move and trade successfully
> (long
> > > > term) on that basis then that is something else altogether.
> > > >
> > > > If it is at all possible to do that then it definitely can't
> be
> > > taught.
> > > >
> > > > That is why I asked, "Anyone doing it?".
> > > >
> > > > It is just like >100%PA returns - anything is possible but
> once
> > > someone
> > > > confirms that they have done it then it moves from the realm
> of
> > > > possibility into reality.
> > > >
> > > > In the meantime I will stick to my guns by saying
> that "except for
> > > > people who KNOW what the price is going to do everyone else
> is a
> > > rule
> > > > based trader and categorizing traders, as DT's or MT's, is
> > > arbitrary".
> > > >
> > > > brian_z
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------------------------
> >
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> >
> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >
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> >
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> >
> >
> >
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> 8/20/2008 8:12 AM
> >
>
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