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I acknowledge your point.
I am sure mundane psychology is full of comebacks on both sides of
the argument.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "bilbo0211" <wjdandreta@xxx> wrote:
>
> I have 2 simple questions for u:
>
> What set of rules do you use to recognize a person's face?
>
> What set of rules do you use to recognize a person's voice?
>
> Bill
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> >
> > From the 2nd article:
> >
> > "Paul Taglia sees high-probability Window set-ups that the rest
of us
> > don't. I've seen him do this for nearly two years. He can't
explain
> > it...he simply says that he's looked at thousands and thousands
of
> > charts over his career and some charts simply look better to him
than
> > others. We once asked him to keep a journal to see if we could
> > systematize what he saw. It was a useless exercise. He sees it
but he
> > can't explain it."
> >
> >
> > According to Occams Law the simplest explanation is usually the
best.
> >
> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simplicity
> >
> > Possible explanations, of Paul Taglia's discretionary style are:
> >
> > a) He can 'see', or sense, the future in the charts,
> > b) he has a set of rules that he learnt in the past (based on
> > experience) and they have become second nature - possibly he has
> > forgotten what they are or when he learnt them (or at least some
of
> > them)
> > c) he has a set of rules, and he knows that, but this is an
excellent
> > posture to take if his game plan is never to reveal them to anyone
> > d) he has a set of rules but has a playful nature OR likes to
take
> > the mickey out of his associates OR has a superiority complex and
> > disdains the idiots who surround him
> > e) he has an inferiority complex and needs the boost that comes
from
> > the adulation of others - this is an excellent strategy to
establish
> > mystique as a trader and achieve legendary status
> > f) it is a great way to market ones employment value in a
transient
> > workplace (its a resume that can't be questioned to any extent
either)
> > g) some combination of a-f
> > h) he has a set of rules (some conscious, some sub-conscious) but
he
> > can't be bothered explaining them (it is a form of energy
> > conservation - an alternavtive version of this is that he could
be a
> > very focused trader and has eliminated the non-essentials, like
> > defining his style OR chatting about his style.
> >
> > BTW irrationality is the common name for the shadow (I used the
> > symbolic name).
> >
> > There is no irrationality in maths, programming etc which is
probably
> > why I quite like programmers etc.
> >
> > Trading myths are born out of, and perpetuated by irrationality.
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "wavemechanic" <timesarrow@>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > >
> >
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/lcbattlep/082720
> > 04-39801.cfm
> > >
> > >
> >
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/swingtrading/commentary/lcbattlep/
> > 09022004-39899.cfm
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: sidhartha70
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Wednesday, August 20, 2008 10:52 AM
> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: 'Rule Based' versus 'Discretionary'
> > trading...
> > >
> > >
> > > I think you're right Brian. We do all use rules of some sort.
> > >
> > > But I guess discretionary traders don't use 'hard and fast'
rules
> > and
> > > can't always define the same set of rules by which they
choose to
> > > define an entry or exit.
> > >
> > > For example, as we all know, something as simple as defining
a
> > trend
> > > programatically can be more problematic as you might at first
> > think.
> > > However, a good trader can see very quickly what state the
market
> > is
> > > in by looking at various time frame of chart.
> > >
> > > Likewise, divergences of various sorts can be easy to see
with the
> > > naked eye but difficult to code in their entirety.
> > >
> > > Like driving a car, or a golf swing, you learn the 'rules'
but
> > when
> > > you get really good you are no longer thinking rules... you've
> > > effectively let go of the rules and are just 'doing'...
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Here is my definition:
> > > >
> > > > We are all rule based traders.
> > > >
> > > > Mechanical Traders are a specialist group who have
programmed
> > > > computers to autotrade their rules OR automatically
announce
> > their
> > > > rules via computer communications (audio, email, chart
prompts,
> > > > spoken text etc).
> > > >
> > > > I am prepared to continue the discussion with any seers,
> > inituitives
> > > > etc, who come forward, and adjust my definition to meet
> > anything new
> > > > that comes out of that.
> > > >
> > > > In advance I admit to the possibility of exceptions to the
rule.
> > > >
> > > > brian_z
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111"
<brian_z111@>
> > wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > >Descretionary traders make decisions that are based on
> > personal
> > > > > >knowledge and circumstances, perhaps using many factors
> > unknown to
> > > > > >themselves. Like which journal they read the night
before.
> > > > >
> > > > > This is the nub of the question for sure, and the point
that
> > I am
> > > > > investigating.
> > > > >
> > > > > I suspect that when they (self-nominated DT's) think they
are
> > > > making
> > > > > discretionary decisions they are in fact making rule
based
> > > > decisions.
> > > > >
> > > > > That is why I asked for specific examples
of 'discretionary'
> > > > decision
> > > > > making e.g. I haven't seen Bilbo's chart yet but I
consider
> > it
> > > > highly
> > > > > unlikely that the decision about whether a trend is in
place
> > is a
> > > > > discretionary decision - I can define a trend in several
> > different
> > > > > ways - all of them can readily be written as a rule (in
words
> > or
> > > > with
> > > > > code) - I don't care if the definitions are 'correct' or
not
> > as
> > > > long as
> > > > > the system that they are part of works i.e. my rules for
a
> > trend
> > > > depend
> > > > > on the context.
> > > > >
> > > > > As Dennis said, our rules might be difficult to program,
> > causing us
> > > > not
> > > > > to automate the trade, but mentally we are still running
the
> > rules
> > > > and
> > > > > if we are honest with ourselves we do know what the rules
are.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >For a novice traders to try and mimic the techniques (of
> > > > Discretionary
> > > > > >Traders) without
> > > > > >having similar backgrounds merits caution.
> > > > >
> > > > > What I am suggesting is that, over time, the sub-
conscious
> > mind
> > > > will
> > > > > automate what was intially habitual conscious behaviour,
and
> > even
> > > > make
> > > > > some improvements on it, so that 'we' can skip the
conscious
> > part
> > > > for
> > > > > some 'tasks' e.g. driving the car becomes second nature.
> > > > >
> > > > > That won't happen for new traders, in a short time, so
they
> > do need
> > > > to
> > > > > persevere, be patient and not try to mimic people who
have
> > been
> > > > around
> > > > > for years.
> > > > >
> > > > > IMO formal (written) rules based
> > trading/backtesting/optimization
> > > > is
> > > > > the best place to start - it grinds the basic lessons in
very
> > well.
> > > > >
> > > > > If anyone can look at a chart, and without recourse to
any
> > rules,
> > > > know
> > > > > which way the price is going to move and trade
successfully
> > (long
> > > > > term) on that basis then that is something else
altogether.
> > > > >
> > > > > If it is at all possible to do that then it definitely
can't
> > be
> > > > taught.
> > > > >
> > > > > That is why I asked, "Anyone doing it?".
> > > > >
> > > > > It is just like >100%PA returns - anything is possible
but
> > once
> > > > someone
> > > > > confirms that they have done it then it moves from the
realm
> > of
> > > > > possibility into reality.
> > > > >
> > > > > In the meantime I will stick to my guns by saying
> > that "except for
> > > > > people who KNOW what the price is going to do everyone
else
> > is a
> > > > rule
> > > > > based trader and categorizing traders, as DT's or MT's,
is
> > > > arbitrary".
> > > > >
> > > > > brian_z
> > > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > ------------------------------------
> > >
> > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users
only.
> > >
> > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly
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> > >
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> > >
> > > For other support material please check also:
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > No virus found in this incoming message.
> > > Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com
> > > Version: 8.0.138 / Virus Database: 270.6.6/1623 - Release
Date:
> > 8/20/2008 8:12 AM
> > >
> >
>
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