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making money will be always more difficult because professional
investor are using more and more sophisticated tools which are not
available to small investors
if anybody can really make 30% would be hired immediately by a fund
since as far as I know only reinassance techonologies and few others
was able to keep such a stable performacce
markets dont follow any law, they do what the participant make them
doing, so any system can fail after being successful for 100 years,
and the big fishes can easily manipulate markets with their capitals
nobody has a successful system would make it public since it would
than reduce its profitability, so all you can find in books is
basically useless
reinassance technologies hires people with no financial background at all
of course if you mange 100k usd or less you can have some good
performacce since is a very little capital,
why don't we open a trading competition to check all this performances?
it would be fun, and could also make amibroker more famous ... may be
not so good since than, we would loose our competitive advantage
Let's call it AMICUP. Who is in?
regards
ly
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, <professor@xxx> wrote:
>
> Fred,
>
> You are right. I have written several systems that will produce a
profit when I backtest them. I have one that showed a profit for 50
years trading every stock in the DIA. However, it doesn't work when I
backtest it this year. I don't use optimize, but I do make change to
get better results. I also agreed that anyone buying a system should
get proof that it works and is profitable by getting a statement to
prove that it was traded profitably.
>
> Thanks for your comments,
> Tom
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Fred Tonetti
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 9:08 PM
> Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?
>
>
>
> Almost anyone can write a system that can produce 30% CAR in sample .
>
>
>
> "Entry tests" are better geared to something like . Show me your
year end audited brokerage statement for the last 10 years .
Everything else is some form of fish story which gets better and
better as time goes by .
>
>
>
>
>
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of brian_z111
> Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 8:21 PM
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?
>
>
>
> Dick,
>
> Thankyou very much.
>
> You have been around a while and must have seen it all and heard it
> all several times over.
>
> I liked the article.
>
> I have been over and around this trade many times, but not using
> those particular indicators.
>
> I still learnt 1 or 2 new things and reinforced some others
> (sometimes you need a fresh view of an old problem to open your eyes
> to it a bit wider).
>
> I agree with his core trading philosophies e.g. his idea of "Reality
> Based Logic".
>
> If I was recruiting some upcoming traders, for a trading team, the
> entry test would be "show me your 30% EOD equities system" (for any
> mature economy/market), "now explain to me WHY it works".
>
> It there isn't an underlying logic, based on market behaviour, then
> it is probably a statistical fluke.
>
> My concern with computer/AT trading is that it is fine when it is a
> means to an end but it could become counter productive if it becomes
> an end in itself.
>
> I haven't rushed to it because I believe I need to keep looking at
> the charts to stay in touch with market realities (sometimes trading
> seems hard but as soon as I look at the charts it is easy again).
>
> If I became a computer driven trader I would spend more and more time
> looking at formulas, and computed results lists, and less and less
> time chart reading/market watching.
>
> Re the trade example in the article.
>
> It is based on some of my core trading elements:
>
> - it has a trend (trade with the trend)
> - it has momentum
>
> AND in that situation a big countertrend (pullback), with a trend
> continuation confirmation, performs better than a small pullback +
> TCC that doesn't break the trend (it is a type of contrarian trade -
> both pullbacks have a similar W/L but the deep pullbacks produce a
> much higher PayOff ratio) - in fact the deeper the better, as long as
> it doesn't break a key pivot point.
>
> I found the SFO and the tradingacademy sites by googling....
>
> thanks once again.
>
> brian_z
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "areehoi" <areehoi@> wrote:
> >
> > Brian.
> > You have given Louis (and others) some excellent advice. You may
> find
> > an article on Trading Systems appearing in the current issue of SFO
> > magazine (I'm not sure you receive it in Australia) titled "System
> > Trading: Whose on the Other Side" of interest. You'll be amazed at
> > the simplicity of a trading system according to the author. I've
> > posted it in the files section of the AB Group.
> >
> > Dick H
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Louis,
> > >
> > > This could be the longest AB thread ever.
> > >
> > > Some wonderful people gave you some wonderful answers.
> > >
> > > To help you get some lasting value from it, here is my close.
> > >
> > >
> > > When you started in AB you asked me "can we really make money
> trading
> > > and how much"
> > >
> > > I told you >50% but that you should aim for >30% to start with,
> as a
> > > benchmark.
> > > Others said that was not possible.
> > > Since then I have gone on to say 100% PA is good and 1000%PA is
> > > possible.
> > >
> > > Now you are asking the same question again!
> > >
> > > (others have now confirmed they ARE doing over 50% but no one
> else is
> > > talking about 1000% yet).
> > >
> > >
> > > You asked me where you should start and which approach was better.
> > > I told you that you should learn in US EOD stocks because it has
> all
> > > of the basic elements of trading right there etc
> > > I said that RT data was a lot harder to handle and not worth the
> > > trouble to newcomers.
> > >
> > > You went to RT and had trouble.
> > >
> > > I told you that almost no one trades using 1000's of symbols in
> RT
> > > (most long term traders narrow down to the indexes, a filtered
> > > watchlist of stocks, a small semi-permanent list of stocks, Forex
> or
> > > Commodities.
> > >
> > > You tried to use 100's or 1000's of RT stocks for your first
> system.
> > > You had trouble with that.
> > >
> > > I told you it would take years.
> > > Now after only 7 months you are struggling with it.
> > >
> > > In this thread I have laid it all out for you (roughly) although
> I am
> > > only saying what others have said in different ways, but to close
> out
> > > I will briefly summarise/explain what I have said.
> > >
> > > Method:
> > >
> > > a) isolate the key skills required to trade
> > > b) practice them repetitively until they become second nature
> > > c) positively reinforce your trading alter ego by focus,
> simplicity,
> > > positive thinking, repetition etc
> > >
> > > a) is the reason that so few succeed.
> > > b) and c) are a piece of cake.
> > >
> > > It takes so long to isolate the key skills of trading because the
> > > subject is so vast and there are so many conflicting opinions AND
> > > very few, if any, traders who make it will lay it all out for
> anyone.
> > >
> > > All in all it is like going through a library full of books and
> > > distilling the info down to a single Readers Digest.
> > >
> > > The super traders distill it all down to a tablespoon of gold.
> > >
> > > This takes a lot of time and many don't have what it takes to see
> the
> > > wood for the trees.
> > >
> > > After years I have got it down to the last pile of books (you can
> > > easily successfully trade at that level, in fact you can trade
> > > reasonably well if you only make it half way through).
> > > I only managed that because I was lucky enough to be an intuitive
> and
> > > this helped me find the shortcuts (I didn't have to read all of
> the
> > > books).
> > >
> > > So once again, here is my practical advice to you.
> > >
> > > Don't take on the whole library - it is overwhelming.
> > >
> > > Take on one section.
> > >
> > > Start with US EOD trading, no leverage.
> > > After you learn to get >30% there you can then start to learn
> > > leveraging stocks (via options OR Single Stock Futures).
> > > After you learn that then you can quickly and easily learn
> > > Commodities/Futures etc or whatever you want - the trading world
> is
> > > your oyster.
> > >
> > > All of the core elements of trading are right there in EOD stocks.
> > > If you can't find them there then you are not going to make it
> > > anywhere.
> > >
> > >
> > > Re AutoTrading.
> > >
> > > This is like having your car on auto-pilot.
> > > First you have to have a car.
> > > Then you have to learn to drive it.
> > > Then you can say "now I will automate it and put my feet up while
> it
> > > drives down the road".
> > > You don't just decide to learn autodriving before you fulfil the
> > > first two steps.
> > >
> > >
> > > Why not start with commodities?
> > >
> > > because you will be trying to learn trading and leveraging both
> at
> > > the same time plus all of the elements of trading are not exposed
> the
> > > way they are in stocks (you have the complication of seasonality
> plus
> > > you are limited to 20-30 instruments).
> > > In stocks you get a much better feel for trading with the
> different
> > > cap levels, different volatilities, sectors and global
> relationships
> > > etc - things you don't see so clearly in other instruments.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Why not start in RT?
> > >
> > > because so much of your time will be taken up with
> software/hardware
> > > issues when you should be focusing on learning to trade (plenty
> of
> > > time for RT once you can trade).
> > > Also - once you can trade then trading RT bars is barely any
> > > different - you can go straight on with it (tick trading is
> something
> > > else again - only suitable for people who are right at home with
> IT
> > > skills)
> > >
> > > Wheh should I learn Money Management?
> > >
> > > First you have to get a system that can do >=30% when paper
> trading
> > > i.e. it does that live, for a reasonable period (on data you have
> > > never seen before).
> > >
> > > IF YOU CANT DO THAT FIRST YOU CAN FORGET THE REST AND GIVE UP.
> > >
> > > Then, if you get that far, you need to learn the basisc of MM
> before
> > > you start to trade with real money (you can improve your MM based
> on
> > > your trading experience but you must now the basics before you
> start.
> > >
> > >
> > > Realistically, only those with above average aptitude are going
> to be
> > > able to do that while they are holding down a job (the magnitude
> of
> > > the task is pretty big unless you have a mentor, a friend or you
> have
> > > the right stuff to skip through it).
> > >
> > > All the best with your endeavours,
> > >
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > > please excuse me if I don't answer any further questions on the
> > > subject.
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Louis P." <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hi,
> > > >
> > > > I was only wondering... Anyone actually making money or making
> a
> > > living
> > > > with AB and trading?
> > > >
> > > > I've been working on ideas and plans for over 7 months now and
> > > didn't find
> > > > anything convincing yet. I've been searching daily data, then
> > > hourly,
> > > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute data and nothing seems
> > > satisfying.
> > > > Been searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV... nothing seems to
> work.
> > > >
> > > > So... Anyone is making consistent money with this, and if so,
> at
> > > which
> > > > timeframe and how do you do it?
> > > >
> > > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick database; it
> seems
> > > even
> > > > 1-minute is too slow for intraday trading. Anyone making money
> with
> > > > 1-minute?
> > > >
> > > > Thanks,
> > > >
> > > > Louis
> > > >
> > >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
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