RE: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?, AmiBroker Email List Archive

Frankly I have never seen a system that was for sale that was viable and I used to see all the commercial software in this category some of which ranged into the tens of thousands of dollars.

If you think about it the reasons for why this is become obvious …

From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of professor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, August 08, 2008 2:35 AM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?

Fred,

You are right. I have written several systems that will produce a profit when I backtest them. I have one that showed a profit for 50 years trading every stock in the DIA. However, it doesn't work when I backtest it this year. I don't use optimize, but I do make change to get better results. I also agreed that anyone buying a system should get proof that it works and is profitable by getting a statement to prove that it was traded profitably.

Thanks for your comments,

Tom

----- Original Message -----

From: Fred Tonetti

To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com

Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 9:08 PM

Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?

Almost anyone can write a system that can produce 30% CAR in sample …

“Entry tests” are better geared to something like … Show me your year end audited brokerage statement for the last 10 years … Everything else is some form of fish story which gets better and better as time goes by …

From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of brian_z111
Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 8:21 PM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?

Dick,

Thankyou very much.

You have been around a while and must have seen it all and heard it
all several times over.

I liked the article.

I have been over and around this trade many times, but not using
those particular indicators.

I still learnt 1 or 2 new things and reinforced some others
(sometimes you need a fresh view of an old problem to open your eyes
to it a bit wider).

I agree with his core trading philosophies e.g. his idea of "Reality
Based Logic".

If I was recruiting some upcoming traders, for a trading team, the
entry test would be "show me your 30% EOD equities system" (for any
mature economy/market), "now explain to me WHY it works".

It there isn't an underlying logic, based on market behaviour, then
it is probably a statistical fluke.

My concern with computer/AT trading is that it is fine when it is a
means to an end but it could become counter productive if it becomes
an end in itself.

I haven't rushed to it because I believe I need to keep looking at
the charts to stay in touch with market realities (sometimes trading
seems hard but as soon as I look at the charts it is easy again).

If I became a computer driven trader I would spend more and more time
looking at formulas, and computed results lists, and less and less
time chart reading/market watching.

Re the trade example in the article.

It is based on some of my core trading elements:

- it has a trend (trade with the trend)
- it has momentum

AND in that situation a big countertrend (pullback), with a trend
continuation confirmation, performs better than a small pullback +
TCC that doesn't break the trend (it is a type of contrarian trade -
both pullbacks have a similar W/L but the deep pullbacks produce a
much higher PayOff ratio) - in fact the deeper the better, as long as
it doesn't break a key pivot point.

I found the SFO and the tradingacademy sites by googling....

thanks once again.

brian_z

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com, "areehoi" <areehoi@xxx> wrote:
>
> Brian.
> You have given Louis (and others) some excellent advice. You may
find
> an article on Trading Systems appearing in the current issue of SFO
> magazine (I'm not sure you receive it in Australia) titled "System
> Trading: Whose on the Other Side" of interest. You'll be amazed at
> the simplicity of a trading system according to the author. I've
> posted it in the files section of the AB Group.
>
> Dick H
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> >
> > Louis,
> >
> > This could be the longest AB thread ever.
> >
> > Some wonderful people gave you some wonderful answers.
> >
> > To help you get some lasting value from it, here is my close.
> >
> >
> > When you started in AB you asked me "can we really make money
trading
> > and how much"
> >
> > I told you >50% but that you should aim for >30% to start with,
as a
> > benchmark.
> > Others said that was not possible.
> > Since then I have gone on to say 100% PA is good and 1000%PA is
> > possible.
> >
> > Now you are asking the same question again!
> >
> > (others have now confirmed they ARE doing over 50% but no one
else is
> > talking about 1000% yet).
> >
> >
> > You asked me where you should start and which approach was better.
> > I told you that you should learn in US EOD stocks because it has
all
> > of the basic elements of trading right there etc
> > I said that RT data was a lot harder to handle and not worth the
> > trouble to newcomers.
> >
> > You went to RT and had trouble.
> >
> > I told you that almost no one trades using 1000's of symbols in
RT
> > (most long term traders narrow down to the indexes, a filtered
> > watchlist of stocks, a small semi-permanent list of stocks, Forex
or
> > Commodities.
> >
> > You tried to use 100's or 1000's of RT stocks for your first
system.
> > You had trouble with that.
> >
> > I told you it would take years.
> > Now after only 7 months you are struggling with it.
> >
> > In this thread I have laid it all out for you (roughly) although
I am
> > only saying what others have said in different ways, but to close
out
> > I will briefly summarise/explain what I have said.
> >
> > Method:
> >
> > a) isolate the key skills required to trade
> > b) practice them repetitively until they become second nature
> > c) positively reinforce your trading alter ego by focus,
simplicity,
> > positive thinking, repetition etc
> >
> > a) is the reason that so few succeed.
> > b) and c) are a piece of cake.
> >
> > It takes so long to isolate the key skills of trading because the
> > subject is so vast and there are so many conflicting opinions AND
> > very few, if any, traders who make it will lay it all out for
anyone.
> >
> > All in all it is like going through a library full of books and
> > distilling the info down to a single Readers Digest.
> >
> > The super traders distill it all down to a tablespoon of gold.
> >
> > This takes a lot of time and many don't have what it takes to see
the
> > wood for the trees.
> >
> > After years I have got it down to the last pile of books (you can
> > easily successfully trade at that level, in fact you can trade
> > reasonably well if you only make it half way through).
> > I only managed that because I was lucky enough to be an intuitive
and
> > this helped me find the shortcuts (I didn't have to read all of
the
> > books).
> >
> > So once again, here is my practical advice to you.
> >
> > Don't take on the whole library - it is overwhelming.
> >
> > Take on one section.
> >
> > Start with US EOD trading, no leverage.
> > After you learn to get >30% there you can then start to learn
> > leveraging stocks (via options OR Single Stock Futures).
> > After you learn that then you can quickly and easily learn
> > Commodities/Futures etc or whatever you want - the trading world
is
> > your oyster.
> >
> > All of the core elements of trading are right there in EOD stocks.
> > If you can't find them there then you are not going to make it
> > anywhere.
> >
> >
> > Re AutoTrading.
> >
> > This is like having your car on auto-pilot.
> > First you have to have a car.
> > Then you have to learn to drive it.
> > Then you can say "now I will automate it and put my feet up while
it
> > drives down the road".
> > You don't just decide to learn autodriving before you fulfil the
> > first two steps.
> >
> >
> > Why not start with commodities?
> >
> > because you will be trying to learn trading and leveraging both
at
> > the same time plus all of the elements of trading are not exposed
the
> > way they are in stocks (you have the complication of seasonality
plus
> > you are limited to 20-30 instruments).
> > In stocks you get a much better feel for trading with the
different
> > cap levels, different volatilities, sectors and global
relationships
> > etc - things you don't see so clearly in other instruments.
> >
> >
> >
> > Why not start in RT?
> >
> > because so much of your time will be taken up with
software/hardware
> > issues when you should be focusing on learning to trade (plenty
of
> > time for RT once you can trade).
> > Also - once you can trade then trading RT bars is barely any
> > different - you can go straight on with it (tick trading is
something
> > else again - only suitable for people who are right at home with
IT
> > skills)
> >
> > Wheh should I learn Money Management?
> >
> > First you have to get a system that can do >=30% when paper
trading
> > i.e. it does that live, for a reasonable period (on data you have
> > never seen before).
> >
> > IF YOU CANT DO THAT FIRST YOU CAN FORGET THE REST AND GIVE UP.
> >
> > Then, if you get that far, you need to learn the basisc of MM
before
> > you start to trade with real money (you can improve your MM based
on
> > your trading experience but you must now the basics before you
start.
> >
> >
> > Realistically, only those with above average aptitude are going
to be
> > able to do that while they are holding down a job (the magnitude
of
> > the task is pretty big unless you have a mentor, a friend or you
have
> > the right stuff to skip through it).
> >
> > All the best with your endeavours,
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> > please excuse me if I don't answer any further questions on the
> > subject.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com, "Louis P." <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi,
> > >
> > > I was only wondering... Anyone actually making money or making
a
> > living
> > > with AB and trading?
> > >
> > > I've been working on ideas and plans for over 7 months now and
> > didn't find
> > > anything convincing yet. I've been searching daily data, then
> > hourly,
> > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute data and nothing seems
> > satisfying.
> > > Been searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV... nothing seems to
work.
> > >
> > > So... Anyone is making consistent money with this, and if so,
at
> > which
> > > timeframe and how do you do it?
> > >
> > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick database; it
seems
> > even
> > > 1-minute is too slow for intraday trading. Anyone making money
with
> > > 1-minute?
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > >
> > > Louis
> > >
> >
>

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