Dick,
Thankyou very much.
You have been
around a while and must have seen it all and heard it
all several times
over.
I liked the article.
I have been over and around this
trade many times, but not using
those particular indicators.
I
still learnt 1 or 2 new things and reinforced some others
(sometimes you
need a fresh view of an old problem to open your eyes
to it a bit
wider).
I agree with his core trading philosophies e.g. his idea of
"Reality
Based Logic".
If I was recruiting some upcoming traders,
for a trading team, the
entry test would be "show me your 30% EOD equities
system" (for any
mature economy/market), "now explain to me WHY it
works".
It there isn't an underlying logic, based on market behaviour,
then
it is probably a statistical fluke.
My concern with
computer/AT trading is that it is fine when it is a
means to an end but it
could become counter productive if it becomes
an end in itself.
I
haven't rushed to it because I believe I need to keep looking at
the
charts to stay in touch with market realities (sometimes trading
seems
hard but as soon as I look at the charts it is easy again).
If I became
a computer driven trader I would spend more and more time
looking at
formulas, and computed results lists, and less and less
time chart
reading/market watching.
Re the trade example in the article.
It
is based on some of my core trading elements:
- it has a trend (trade
with the trend)
- it has momentum
AND in that situation a big
countertrend (pullback), with a trend
continuation confirmation, performs
better than a small pullback +
TCC that doesn't break the trend (it is a
type of contrarian trade -
both pullbacks have a similar W/L but the deep
pullbacks produce a
much higher PayOff ratio) - in fact the deeper the
better, as long as
it doesn't break a key pivot point.
I found the
SFO and the tradingacademy sites by googling....
thanks once
again.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"areehoi" <areehoi@xxx> wrote:
>
> Brian.
> You
have given Louis (and others) some excellent advice. You may
find
>
an article on Trading Systems appearing in the current issue of SFO
>
magazine (I'm not sure you receive it in Australia)
titled "System
> Trading: Whose on the Other Side" of interest. You'll
be amazed at
> the simplicity of a trading system according to the
author. I've
> posted it in the files section of the AB Group.
>
> Dick H
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> >
> >
Louis,
> >
> > This could be the longest AB thread
ever.
> >
> > Some wonderful people gave you some wonderful
answers.
> >
> > To help you get some lasting value from
it, here is my close.
> >
> >
> > When you
started in AB you asked me "can we really make money
trading
> >
and how much"
> >
> > I told you >50% but that you
should aim for >30% to start with,
as a
> >
benchmark.
> > Others said that was not possible.
> > Since
then I have gone on to say 100% PA is good and 1000%PA is
> >
possible.
> >
> > Now you are asking the same question
again!
> >
> > (others have now confirmed they ARE doing
over 50% but no one
else is
> > talking about 1000%
yet).
> >
> >
> > You asked me where you should
start and which approach was better.
> > I told you that you should
learn in US EOD stocks because it has
all
> > of the basic
elements of trading right there etc
> > I said that RT data was a lot
harder to handle and not worth the
> > trouble to newcomers.
>
>
> > You went to RT and had trouble.
> >
> >
I told you that almost no one trades using 1000's of symbols in
RT
> > (most long term traders narrow down to the indexes, a filtered
> > watchlist of stocks, a small semi-permanent list of stocks,
Forex
or
> > Commodities.
> >
> > You tried
to use 100's or 1000's of RT stocks for your first
system.
> >
You had trouble with that.
> >
> > I told you it would take
years.
> > Now after only 7 months you are struggling with
it.
> >
> > In this thread I have laid it all out for you
(roughly) although
I am
> > only saying what others have said in
different ways, but to close
out
> > I will briefly
summarise/explain what I have said.
> >
> > Method:
>
>
> > a) isolate the key skills required to trade
> > b)
practice them repetitively until they become second nature
> > c)
positively reinforce your trading alter ego by focus,
simplicity,
>
> positive thinking, repetition etc
> >
> > a) is the
reason that so few succeed.
> > b) and c) are a piece of
cake.
> >
> > It takes so long to isolate the key skills of
trading because the
> > subject is so vast and there are so many
conflicting opinions AND
> > very few, if any, traders who make it
will lay it all out for
anyone.
> >
> > All in all it
is like going through a library full of books and
> > distilling the
info down to a single Readers Digest.
> >
> > The super
traders distill it all down to a tablespoon of gold.
> >
>
> This takes a lot of time and many don't have what it takes to see
the
> > wood for the trees.
> >
> > After years I
have got it down to the last pile of books (you can
> > easily
successfully trade at that level, in fact you can trade
> >
reasonably well if you only make it half way through).
> > I only
managed that because I was lucky enough to be an intuitive
and
>
> this helped me find the shortcuts (I didn't have to read all of
the
> > books).
> >
> > So once again, here is my
practical advice to you.
> >
> > Don't take on the whole
library - it is overwhelming.
> >
> > Take on one
section.
> >
> > Start with US EOD trading, no
leverage.
> > After you learn to get >30% there you can then start
to learn
> > leveraging stocks (via options OR Single Stock
Futures).
> > After you learn that then you can quickly and easily
learn
> > Commodities/Futures etc or whatever you want - the
trading world
is
> > your oyster.
> >
> > All
of the core elements of trading are right there in EOD stocks.
> > If
you can't find them there then you are not going to make it
> >
anywhere.
> >
> >
> > Re AutoTrading.
>
>
> > This is like having your car on auto-pilot.
> >
First you have to have a car.
> > Then you have to learn to drive
it.
> > Then you can say "now I will automate it and put my feet up
while
it
> > drives down the road".
> > You don't just
decide to learn autodriving before you fulfil the
> > first two
steps.
> >
> >
> > Why not start with
commodities?
> >
> > because you will be trying to learn
trading and leveraging both
at
> > the same time plus all of the
elements of trading are not exposed
the
> > way they are in
stocks (you have the complication of seasonality
plus
> > you
are limited to 20-30 instruments).
> > In stocks you get a much
better feel for trading with the
different
> > cap levels,
different volatilities, sectors and global
relationships
> > etc
- things you don't see so clearly in other instruments.
> >
>
>
> >
> > Why not start in RT?
> >
>
> because so much of your time will be taken up with
software/hardware
> > issues when you should be focusing on learning to trade (plenty
of
> > time for RT once you can trade).
> > Also - once
you can trade then trading RT bars is barely any
> > different - you
can go straight on with it (tick trading is
something
> > else
again - only suitable for people who are right at home with
IT
>
> skills)
> >
> > Wheh should I learn Money
Management?
> >
> > First you have to get a system that can
do >=30% when paper
trading
> > i.e. it does that live, for a
reasonable period (on data you have
> > never seen before).
>
>
> > IF YOU CANT DO THAT FIRST YOU CAN FORGET THE REST AND GIVE
UP.
> >
> > Then, if you get that far, you need to learn
the basisc of MM
before
> > you start to trade with real money
(you can improve your MM based
on
> > your trading experience
but you must now the basics before you
start.
> >
> >
> > Realistically, only those with above average aptitude are going
to be
> > able to do that while they are holding down a job (the
magnitude
of
> > the task is pretty big unless you have a
mentor, a friend or you
have
> > the right stuff to skip through
it).
> >
> > All the best with your endeavours,
>
>
> > brian_z
> >
> > please excuse me if I
don't answer any further questions on the
> > subject.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"Louis P." <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > >
> > >
Hi,
> > >
> > > I was only wondering... Anyone
actually making money or making
a
> > living
> > >
with AB and trading?
> > >
> > > I've been working on
ideas and plans for over 7 months now and
> > didn't find
>
> > anything convincing yet. I've been searching daily data, then
> > hourly,
> > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute
data and nothing seems
> > satisfying.
> > > Been
searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV...
nothing seems to
work.
> > >
> > > So... Anyone
is making consistent money with this, and if so,
at
> >
which
> > > timeframe and how do you do it?
> > >
> > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick database; it
seems
> > even
> > > 1-minute is too slow for
intraday trading. Anyone making money
with
> > >
1-minute?
> > >
> > > Thanks,
> > >
> > > Louis
> > >
>
>
>