making money will be always more difficult because professional
investor
are using more and more sophisticated tools which are not
available to
small investors
if anybody can really make 30% would be hired
immediately by a fund
since as far as I know only reinassance techonologies
and few others
was able to keep such a stable performacce
markets
dont follow any law, they do what the participant make them
doing, so any
system can fail after being successful for 100 years,
and the big fishes
can easily manipulate markets with their capitals
nobody has a
successful system would make it public since it would
than reduce its
profitability, so all you can find in books is
basically
useless
reinassance technologies hires people with no financial
background at all
of course if you mange 100k usd or less you can have
some good
performacce since is a very little capital,
why don't we
open a trading competition to check all this performances?
it would be
fun, and could also make amibroker more famous ... may be
not so good since
than, we would loose our competitive advantage
Let's call it AMICUP.
Who is in?
regards
ly
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
<professor@x..> wrote:
>
> Fred,
>
> You
are right. I have written several systems that will produce a
profit when I
backtest them. I have one that showed a profit for 50
years trading every
stock in the DIA. However, it doesn't work when I
backtest it this year. I
don't use optimize, but I do make change to
get better results. I also
agreed that anyone buying a system should
get proof that it works and is
profitable by getting a statement to
prove that it was traded
profitably.
>
> Thanks for your comments,
> Tom
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Fred Tonetti
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com
> Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 9:08 PM
> Subject: RE:
[amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?
>
>
>
> Almost anyone can write a system that can produce 30% CAR in sample
.
>
>
>
> "Entry tests" are better geared to
something like . Show me your
year end audited brokerage statement for the
last 10 years .
Everything else is some form of fish story which gets
better and
better as time goes by .
>
>
>
>
>
----------------------------------------------------------
>
> From: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com
[mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com]
On
Behalf Of brian_z111
> Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2008 8:21 PM
>
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com
>
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Anyone actually making money?
>
>
>
> Dick,
>
> Thankyou very much.
>
>
You have been around a while and must have seen it all and heard it
>
all several times over.
>
> I liked the article.
>
>
I have been over and around this trade many times, but not using
>
those particular indicators.
>
> I still learnt 1 or 2 new things
and reinforced some others
> (sometimes you need a fresh view of an old
problem to open your eyes
> to it a bit wider).
>
> I
agree with his core trading philosophies e.g. his idea of "Reality
>
Based Logic".
>
> If I was recruiting some upcoming traders, for
a trading team, the
> entry test would be "show me your 30% EOD
equities system" (for any
> mature economy/market), "now explain
to me WHY it works".
>
> It there isn't an underlying logic,
based on market behaviour, then
> it is probably a statistical
fluke.
>
> My concern with computer/AT trading is that it is fine
when it is a
> means to an end but it could become counter productive
if it becomes
> an end in itself.
>
> I haven't rushed to
it because I believe I need to keep looking at
> the charts to stay in
touch with market realities (sometimes trading
> seems hard but as soon
as I look at the charts it is easy again).
>
> If I became a
computer driven trader I would spend more and more time
> looking at
formulas, and computed results lists, and less and less
> time chart
reading/market watching.
>
> Re the trade example in the
article.
>
> It is based on some of my core trading
elements:
>
> - it has a trend (trade with the trend)
> -
it has momentum
>
> AND in that situation a big countertrend
(pullback), with a trend
> continuation confirmation, performs better
than a small pullback +
> TCC that doesn't break the trend (it is a
type of contrarian trade -
> both pullbacks have a similar W/L but the
deep pullbacks produce a
> much higher PayOff ratio) - in fact the
deeper the better, as long as
> it doesn't break a key pivot
point.
>
> I found the SFO and the tradingacademy sites by
googling....
>
> thanks once again.
>
> brian_z
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"areehoi" <areehoi@> wrote:
> >
> > Brian.
>
> You have given Louis (and others) some excellent advice. You may
>
find
> > an article on Trading Systems appearing in the current issue
of SFO
> > magazine (I'm not sure you receive it in Australia) titled
"System
> > Trading: Whose on the Other Side" of interest. You'll be
amazed at
> > the simplicity of a trading system according to the
author. I've
> > posted it in the files section of the AB
Group.
> >
> > Dick H
> >
> >
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"brian_z111" <brian_z111@> wrote:
> > >
> >
> Louis,
> > >
> > > This could be the longest AB
thread ever.
> > >
> > > Some wonderful people gave
you some wonderful answers.
> > >
> > > To help you
get some lasting value from it, here is my close.
> > >
>
> >
> > > When you started in AB you asked me "can we
really make money
> trading
> > > and how much"
>
> >
> > > I told you >50% but that you should aim for
>30% to start with,
> as a
> > > benchmark.
>
> > Others said that was not possible.
> > > Since then I
have gone on to say 100% PA is good and 1000%PA is
> > >
possible.
> > >
> > > Now you are asking the same
question again!
> > >
> > > (others have now
confirmed they ARE doing over 50% but no one
> else is
> >
> talking about 1000% yet).
> > >
> > >
>
> > You asked me where you should start and which approach was
better.
> > > I told you that you should learn in US EOD stocks
because it has
> all
> > > of the basic elements of
trading right there etc
> > > I said that RT data was a lot harder
to handle and not worth the
> > > trouble to newcomers.
>
> >
> > > You went to RT and had trouble.
> > >
> > > I told you that almost no one trades using 1000's of
symbols in
> RT
> > > (most long term traders narrow down
to the indexes, a filtered
> > > watchlist of stocks, a small
semi-permanent list of stocks, Forex
> or
> > >
Commodities.
> > >
> > > You tried to use 100's or
1000's of RT stocks for your first
> system.
> > > You had
trouble with that.
> > >
> > > I told you it would
take years.
> > > Now after only 7 months you are struggling with
it.
> > >
> > > In this thread I have laid it all out
for you (roughly) although
> I am
> > > only saying what
others have said in different ways, but to close
> out
> >
> I will briefly summarise/explain what I have said.
> > >
> > > Method:
> > >
> > > a) isolate the
key skills required to trade
> > > b) practice them repetitively
until they become second nature
> > > c) positively reinforce your
trading alter ego by focus,
> simplicity,
> > > positive
thinking, repetition etc
> > >
> > > a) is the reason
that so few succeed.
> > > b) and c) are a piece of cake.
>
> >
> > > It takes so long to isolate the key skills of
trading because the
> > > subject is so vast and there are so
many conflicting opinions AND
> > > very few, if any, traders who
make it will lay it all out for
> anyone.
> > >
>
> > All in all it is like going through a library full of books and
> > > distilling the info down to a single Readers
Digest.
> > >
> > > The super traders distill it all
down to a tablespoon of gold.
> > >
> > > This takes
a lot of time and many don't have what it takes to see
> the
>
> > wood for the trees.
> > >
> > > After years
I have got it down to the last pile of books (you can
> > >
easily successfully trade at that level, in fact you can trade
> >
> reasonably well if you only make it half way through).
> > >
I only managed that because I was lucky enough to be an intuitive
> and
> > > this helped me find the shortcuts (I didn't have to read
all of
> the
> > > books).
> > >
> >
> So once again, here is my practical advice to you.
> > >
> > > Don't take on the whole library - it is
overwhelming.
> > >
> > > Take on one
section.
> > >
> > > Start with US EOD trading, no
leverage.
> > > After you learn to get >30% there you can then
start to learn
> > > leveraging stocks (via options OR Single
Stock Futures).
> > > After you learn that then you can quickly
and easily learn
> > > Commodities/Futures etc or whatever
you want - the trading world
> is
> > > your
oyster.
> > >
> > > All of the core elements of
trading are right there in EOD stocks.
> > > If you can't find
them there then you are not going to make it
> > >
anywhere.
> > >
> > >
> > > Re
AutoTrading.
> > >
> > > This is like having your car
on auto-pilot.
> > > First you have to have a car.
> >
> Then you have to learn to drive it.
> > > Then you can say
"now I will automate it and put my feet up while
> it
> >
> drives down the road".
> > > You don't just decide to learn
autodriving before you fulfil the
> > > first two steps.
>
> >
> > >
> > > Why not start with
commodities?
> > >
> > > because you will be trying
to learn trading and leveraging both
> at
> > > the same
time plus all of the elements of trading are not exposed
> the
>
> > way they are in stocks (you have the complication of seasonality
> plus
> > > you are limited to 20-30
instruments).
> > > In stocks you get a much better feel for
trading with the
> different
> > > cap levels, different
volatilities, sectors and global
> relationships
> > > etc
- things you don't see so clearly in other instruments.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Why not start in
RT?
> > >
> > > because so much of your time will be
taken up with
> software/hardware
> > > issues when you
should be focusing on learning to trade (plenty
> of
> > >
time for RT once you can trade).
> > > Also - once you can trade
then trading RT bars is barely any
> > > different - you can go
straight on with it (tick trading is
> something
> > >
else again - only suitable for people who are right at home with
> IT
> > > skills)
> > >
> > > Wheh should I
learn Money Management?
> > >
> > > First you have to
get a system that can do >=30% when paper
> trading
> >
> i.e. it does that live, for a reasonable period (on data you have
> > > never seen before).
> > >
> > > IF
YOU CANT DO THAT FIRST YOU CAN FORGET THE REST AND GIVE UP.
> > >
> > > Then, if you get that far, you need to learn the basisc of
MM
> before
> > > you start to trade with real money (you
can improve your MM based
> on
> > > your trading
experience but you must now the basics before you
> start.
> >
>
> > >
> > > Realistically, only those with
above average aptitude are going
> to be
> > > able to do
that while they are holding down a job (the magnitude
> of
>
> > the task is pretty big unless you have a mentor, a friend or you
> have
> > > the right stuff to skip through it).
>
> >
> > > All the best with your endeavours,
> >
>
> > > brian_z
> > >
> > > please
excuse me if I don't answer any further questions on the
> > >
subject.
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxps.com,
"Louis P." <rockprog80@> wrote:
> > > >
> >
> > Hi,
> > > >
> > > > I was only
wondering... Anyone actually making money or making
> a
> >
> living
> > > > with AB and trading?
> > > >
> > > > I've been working on ideas and plans for over 7 months
now and
> > > didn't find
> > > > anything
convincing yet. I've been searching daily data, then
> > >
hourly,
> > > > 15-minute and now I am into 1-minute data and
nothing seems
> > > satisfying.
> > > > Been
searching RSI, MFI, ADX, MA, HHV, LLV... nothing seems to
>
work.
> > > >
> > > > So... Anyone is making
consistent money with this, and if so,
> at
> > >
which
> > > > timeframe and how do you do it?
> > >
>
> > > > I'm beginning to think about switching to tick
database; it
> seems
> > > even
> > > >
1-minute is too slow for intraday trading. Anyone making money
>
with
> > > > 1-minute?
> > > >
> >
> > Thanks,
> > > >
> > > > Louis
>
> > >
> > >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
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