|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hello Steve,
Thanks for your comments.
At times the forum gets a bit 'dry' and some considered opinion on
what works and what doesn't makes an interesting and valueable
discussion.
I could go over to the Elite Traders forum for some color but that
would place one more job on the daily list.
I also find that a higher level of trust exists in this forum (you
get to know the people and also no one has anything to gain
financially - not to any great extent anyway).
>From your recent brief comments we seem to be on a similar wavelength.
It is good to see you posting.
Personally I am happy to give away everything, except my core 10%
that I use to make a living, provided that I have the time to do it.
> very simple things work as long as you apply good risk/reward
> management.
That is exactly what I have been implying with my recent comments on
PowerFactor - the W/L binomial component is subject to sample error
and variance (we can't avoid the former or control/predict the
later) - IMO this has bought more people undone than almost anything
else - as I showed with upVol/upPrice days, they soon revert to
breakeven status - many apparent edges found in backtests are a
mirage created by insufficient data and curve fitting.
On the other hand, ave%W/ave%L is the component of our final
reward/risk ratio that is not subject to variance and is totally
under our control (it is managed by us from our stops).
So, effective exits are a 'gimme' in trading - as reliable as
anything we can find (allowing for a small amount of variance due to
slippage, although IMO that is controllable and works both ways as
well).
That is why I have recently posted on PowerFactor - because it
contains the causal components of market outcomes and because
it 'highlights' the simple fact that W/L is slippery and ave%W/ave%L
is as solid as a rock (all metrics that are compounded directly, or
indirectly from W/L have the slippery component hidden in ways that
are very difficult to find).
This trading phliosophy is one outcome of my overall policy to look
for things, in the market, that are dependable i.e. what can we find
in the market that does happen 80% of the time, or more (given that
the market is nearly a random walk and that most things revert to the
binomial mean pretty quickly) e.g. change is almost 100% certain,
butI have found a few things and made a list of them - they are gold
to me - something solid in a quicksand market.
> From a technical perspective, support and resistance never has been
> and never will be "curve fitting". It exists. It's an inherent
> part of even a RANDOM event system (as many think the markets are
> anyway). It's observable and it's better than a 50/50 edge. It's
> not momentum based so you are never LAGGING the market.
I don't think PriceAction trading is limited to S&R - I find many
different and unique applications (I call my style Dynamic Trading -
no lookback lagging indicators) e.g. KO talked the other day about
the 'smoothing' indicator spikes - I consider smoothing to suffer
from lagging and I am more interested in where the peak fits into a
typical range - range is a dynamic form of approximating significance.
> S&R ......never will be "curve fitting". It exists. It's an
inherent
> part of even a RANDOM event system (as many think the markets are
> anyway).
I am not sure what you mean by S&R being part of Random market
behaviour. I don't think I agree with that.
I consider the market as exhibiting 'random like' behaviour (a
randome walk with a limp) - human nature leaves its mark on the
market and that is where we find the edge we can exploit - I have
posted at least one example of this, if not more, in the past (even
the recent past).
> FORGET about automated strategies if you are not already a
>successful
> market operator.
100% agree.
The same goes for leveraged trading (even more so).
That is why I consistently plug US equities as the market to cut our
teeth on - if we can consistently win there then we can consistently
win anywhere (including with AT and leveraged trading).
BTW - I thought the trading record of the top equity traders in the
Robbins WorldCupofTrading is pretty average - IMO consistent triple
figures are there for the taking in equity trading.
(Also the reason I plug Yahoo US data - good enough to learn trading
with - anyone who can't get 30-40%, in testing there, isn't go to be
a long term winner in the markets - that is only the starting line.
> If you're too scared to trade a live market or place orders by your
> own hand some time during the day based on end-of-day data etc
re live trading - My tentative view is that 'live' trading is a very
important part of the learning process - for a start, as we have
seen, historical data is very slippery and the brokers platform is
the 'real' market (clearly shown in Hermans' posts on RT trading).
We say we are 'mechanical traders' but I am not - I am a rule based
trader - AB and backtesting etc are tools that I use to traing and
hone my 'trading min' but in the end I can trade without them - I
take pride in being able to 'read' the market and trade 'live' -
hands on - there is a certain amount of discrepancy involved - it is
still rule based but rules can be applied mentally (no computer
required if necessary).
Sometimes I wonder if this might actually be the best way to trade
(not withstanding the outstanding ideas on AT presented by Herman).
> re FFT
I wouldn't go so far as to tell others not to study it.
They might find something there or, as if often the case, find some
good ideas from failure.
I personally don't rate the chance highly but I do make mistakes and
have blind spots.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "scourt2000" <stevehite@xxx> wrote:
>
>
> If your time has value, then don't waste it looking into FFT as an
> edge in the markets.
>
> If your goal is to make money from the stock/futures market, then
> very simple things work as long as you apply good risk/reward
> management.
>
> The more complex you make this game, the more you wind up curve
> fitting your ideas to try and match what the market is currently
> doing. Don't do that. You will either eventually lose all of your
> risk money and quit this game or quit by sheer frustration.
>
> From a technical perspective, support and resistance never has been
> and never will be "curve fitting". It exists. It's an inherent
> part of even a RANDOM event system (as many think the markets are
> anyway). It's observable and it's better than a 50/50 edge. It's
> not momentum based so you are never LAGGING the market. It's just
> you standing in front of price (before price gets to you) with the
> knowledge that it will reverse more times than not before you get
> stopped out. That's all you need. You don't need to pay for
anyone
> else's advice or buy their "proprietary indicators". That's all
just
> a game to part you from your money.
>
> Here's what you need to do first:
>
> FORGET about automated strategies if you are not already a
successful
> market operator. That's right. Until you have the experience and
> skill level to make money by your own hand in the markets FIRST,
then
> don't ever think that you'll ever find something that works by
> throwing math at the markets. This is a game which involves your
> personal interaction with it in order to learn solid lessons in
what
> to do and not do the next time around.
>
> If you're too scared to trade a live market or place orders by your
> own hand some time during the day based on end-of-day data, then
you
> need to understand something very important in order to save you
much
> emotional pain and financial anguish: quit. That's it. Game
over.
> Trading is not for you. You'll need to either go to T-Bills /
CD's
> or put your money in the hands of financial professionals who, I
> assure you, have no problems throwing your money at gawd knows what
> in order to churn out some end-of-year percentage gain or loss and
> gawd knows how much that will affect the taxes you pay based on how
> much they churned your money in the process.
>
> Inexperienced / unsuccessful traders automate unsuccessful
systems.
> They have no choice in the matter really. It's what they do best.
>
> Successful / experienced traders (by their own hand FIRST) have a
> good shot at turning what they do that's proven to make money into
an
> automated system.
>
> It's as simple as that. I promise you.
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, renuka <pinkglassfairy@> wrote:
> >
> > hi,
> >
> > can anyone tell me where i can learn abt FFT ...how to interpret
it
> i mean.
> >
> > thanx
> >
> >
> > kmckiou <kmckiou@> wrote: Hi!
> > Has anyone used Fourier transforms (fft) to filter price data?
I
> tried
> > the example provided in the description of fft and it worked as
> > expected, but it is not being used as a filter - it is just
> plotting
> > the dominant cycle. I suspect the necessary building blocks are
> present
> > in this example, but my knowledge of Fourier transforms is
pretty
> weak,
> > so, I thought I would ask if anyone had already coded a program
to
> > filter price data using transforms before I started hacking
about.
> >
> > Thanks!
> >
> > - Kevin
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Om namah shivay
> >
> >
> > ---------------------------------
> > Explore your hobbies and interests. Click here to begin.
> >
>
Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
For other support material please check also:
http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/
<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional
<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/join
(Yahoo! ID required)
<*> To change settings via email:
mailto:amibroker-digest@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
mailto:amibroker-fullfeatured@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
amibroker-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|