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Hello Boris,
I haven't read Williams but based on your quote I have just entered
him in my 'little green book'.
A few interesting observations (at random):
a) Astrology - greatly misunderstood in modern western culture.
The vast majority of practitioners haven't got a clue.
Even the 'elite' are decades behind the cutting edge.
An incredibly difficult subject in general, let alone when applied to
the markets (or divination).
Personally I am against divination in any form anyway (somewhat of a
misnomer there).
One of my core axioms for trading is to find the aboslute line of
least resistance - what gets the job done with the least amount of
efort - Astrology isn't on my list.
b) Fibonacci - IMO it's claim to fame was established in those
markets where trading was consucted in imperial 1/8ths. The above
comments also apply.
c) Generally - all 'methods' listed suffer from the folly of imposing
an ideal (set of philosophical trading beliefs) on a market that
clearly disbelieves.
enjoyed william's comments.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Boris Kanevsky <lanbor@xxx> wrote:
>
> scourt2000 wrote:
> >
> >
> > If your time has value, then don't waste it looking into FFT as an
> > edge in the markets.
> >
> > If your goal is to make money from the stock/futures market, then
> > very simple things work as long as you apply good risk/reward
> > management.
> >
> > The more complex you make this game, the more you wind up curve
> > fitting your ideas to try and match what the market is currently
> > doing. Don't do that. You will either eventually lose all of your
> > risk money and quit this game or quit by sheer frustration.
> >
> > >From a technical perspective, support and resistance never has
been
> > and never will be "curve fitting". It exists. It's an inherent
> > part of even a RANDOM event system (as many think the markets are
> > anyway). It's observable and it's better than a 50/50 edge. It's
> > not momentum based so you are never LAGGING the market. It's just
> > you standing in front of price (before price gets to you) with the
> > knowledge that it will reverse more times than not before you get
> > stopped out. That's all you need. You don't need to pay for anyone
> > else's advice or buy their "proprietary indicators". That's all
just
> > a game to part you from your money.
> >
> > Here's what you need to do first:
> >
> > FORGET about automated strategies if you are not already a
successful
> > market operator. That's right. Until you have the experience and
> > skill level to make money by your own hand in the markets FIRST,
then
> > don't ever think that you'll ever find something that works by
> > throwing math at the markets. This is a game which involves your
> > personal interaction with it in order to learn solid lessons in
what
> > to do and not do the next time around.
> >
> > If you're too scared to trade a live market or place orders by
your
> > own hand some time during the day based on end-of-day data, then
you
> > need to understand something very important in order to save you
much
> > emotional pain and financial anguish: quit. That's it. Game over.
> > Trading is not for you. You'll need to either go to T-Bills / CD's
> > or put your money in the hands of financial professionals who, I
> > assure you, have no problems throwing your money at gawd knows
what
> > in order to churn out some end-of-year percentage gain or loss and
> > gawd knows how much that will affect the taxes you pay based on
how
> > much they churned your money in the process.
> >
> > Inexperienced / unsuccessful traders automate unsuccessful
systems.
> > They have no choice in the matter really. It's what they do best.
> >
> > Successful / experienced traders (by their own hand FIRST) have a
> > good shot at turning what they do that's proven to make money
into an
> > automated system.
> >
> > It's as simple as that. I promise you.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <mailto:amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>,
> > renuka <pinkglassfairy@> wrote:
> > >
> > > hi,
> > >
> > > can anyone tell me where i can learn abt FFT ...how to
interpret it
> > i mean.
> > >
> > > thanx
> > >
> > >
> > > kmckiou <kmckiou@> wrote: Hi!
> > > Has anyone used Fourier transforms (fft) to filter price data? I
> > tried
> > > the example provided in the description of fft and it worked as
> > > expected, but it is not being used as a filter - it is just
> > plotting
> > > the dominant cycle. I suspect the necessary building blocks are
> > present
> > > in this example, but my knowledge of Fourier transforms is
pretty
> > weak,
> > > so, I thought I would ask if anyone had already coded a program
to
> > > filter price data using transforms before I started hacking
about.
> > >
> > > Thanks!
> > >
> > > - Kevin
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Om namah shivay
> > >
> > >
> > > ---------------------------------
> > > Explore your hobbies and interests. Click here to begin.
> > >
> >
> >
>
>
>
> From Larry Williams:
>
>
> Can You Handle The Truth
>
> There are as many ways to supposedly beat the market as there are
market
> players.
>
> In my search for "what works" I don't think I have left many
stones, if
> any, unturned. To save you time, money and frustration, I'm going
to
> shoot straight from the hip and tell you what I have found to be
true
> for me.
>
> I'm going to step on toes and do all I can to destroy market
> myths...this will upset many people...so be it. These comments are
based
> on my experience. I am more than willing to listen to "the other
side of
> the story" but my search has shown the following:
>
>
> W. D. GANN---This is the biggest fraud going. I knew Gann's son and
> promotion manager. The wild claims about W. D. are incorrect and do
no
> match with what his son and F. B. Thatcher told me. I bought the
Gann
> $5,000 course. It is a collection of general commentaries laced
with
> astrology. Gann, shortly before he died, sold his advisory service
to 2
> or 3 different people at the same time.
>
> FIBONNACI--Here's a technique that claims to be able to tell us
where
> markets will go to, or retrace to, based on a pattern of numbers.
The
> pattern goes like 1,2,3,5,8,13 and on and on. Each new number is
the sum
> of the last 2 numbers. Additionally, going back, say from 13 to 8
is a
> 61.8% retracement. I have shown, from actual market studies of
turning
> points, that these supposed resistant points of 61.8, 38.0 are
> meaningless...that in fact, markets are no more apt to bottom or
top at
> these numbers than any other number.
>
> ASTROLOGY---Frankly, while a skeptic and doubting Thomas, I have
seen
> some evidence that in some way people are affected by all this.
Guys
> like Arch Crawford have had too many good calls, and the Bradley
Model
> as well, to diss the entire subject.
> Yet....this is no sure thing either.
>
> *SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS*----*Ah, great focus has been placed
on
> the fact that a market will "bounce" off former highs and lows. The
> notion is that what was once support (a market low) will become
> resistance if a market has fallen below and is rallying back to
that
> area. It will...about half the time...and no one can tell you which
half!*
>
> POINT AND FIGURE CHARTS/CANDLESTICK CHARTS---These are just
different
> ways of looking at price patterns. I think Point and Figure (P&F)
is a
> waste of time...it leaves time out of the equation. Besides, P&F
charts
> of stocks look the same as P&F charts of spins on a roulette wheel.
>
> Candlestick charts are an art form. I have programmed close to 100
of
> their supposed "best patterns" and have found that most of the time
the
> patterns are meaningless or don't work as the vendors of this ilk
claim.
>
> *THE BOTTOM LINE---*There are few paths to easy wealth and sudden
> riches....I have many friends that use the tools discussed above
and do
> well. How can that be? Because these people are smart, good traders
and
> use these as tools...there is no one mystic formula to this
business.
> Why? Because the market is bombarded every day with random
influences. I
> hope all this helps in your pursuit of what is true for you.
>
> *Larry Williams*.
>
> *
> *
>
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