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BTW - as a rule of thumb I would say that the most common mistake I
see, in the way people approach the market, is to apply indicators
that are based on the view that a structure exists in the market that
underpins that indicator when IMO it doesn't i.e. forcing their view
on the market.
My observation of the market is that it is structureless
(unpredictable) and that I can only react to it rather than impose
myself on it e.g. believing that retracements will go to a discrete,
predictable level is an example of forcing a structure on the market
that isn't there. IMO retracements will exhibit a 'normal' amount of
variance (as far as normality applies to market behaviour).
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@xxx> wrote:
>
> Hello Steve,
>
> Thanks for your comments.
>
> At times the forum gets a bit 'dry' and some considered opinion on
> what works and what doesn't makes an interesting and valueable
> discussion.
>
> I could go over to the Elite Traders forum for some color but that
> would place one more job on the daily list.
> I also find that a higher level of trust exists in this forum (you
> get to know the people and also no one has anything to gain
> financially - not to any great extent anyway).
>
> From your recent brief comments we seem to be on a similar
wavelength.
>
> It is good to see you posting.
>
> Personally I am happy to give away everything, except my core 10%
> that I use to make a living, provided that I have the time to do it.
>
> > very simple things work as long as you apply good risk/reward
> > management.
>
> That is exactly what I have been implying with my recent comments
on
> PowerFactor - the W/L binomial component is subject to sample error
> and variance (we can't avoid the former or control/predict the
> later) - IMO this has bought more people undone than almost
anything
> else - as I showed with upVol/upPrice days, they soon revert to
> breakeven status - many apparent edges found in backtests are a
> mirage created by insufficient data and curve fitting.
>
> On the other hand, ave%W/ave%L is the component of our final
> reward/risk ratio that is not subject to variance and is totally
> under our control (it is managed by us from our stops).
>
> So, effective exits are a 'gimme' in trading - as reliable as
> anything we can find (allowing for a small amount of variance due
to
> slippage, although IMO that is controllable and works both ways as
> well).
>
> That is why I have recently posted on PowerFactor - because it
> contains the causal components of market outcomes and because
> it 'highlights' the simple fact that W/L is slippery and ave%W/ave%
L
> is as solid as a rock (all metrics that are compounded directly, or
> indirectly from W/L have the slippery component hidden in ways that
> are very difficult to find).
>
> This trading phliosophy is one outcome of my overall policy to look
> for things, in the market, that are dependable i.e. what can we
find
> in the market that does happen 80% of the time, or more (given that
> the market is nearly a random walk and that most things revert to
the
> binomial mean pretty quickly) e.g. change is almost 100% certain,
> butI have found a few things and made a list of them - they are
gold
> to me - something solid in a quicksand market.
>
> > From a technical perspective, support and resistance never has
been
> > and never will be "curve fitting". It exists. It's an inherent
> > part of even a RANDOM event system (as many think the markets are
> > anyway). It's observable and it's better than a 50/50 edge.
It's
> > not momentum based so you are never LAGGING the market.
>
> I don't think PriceAction trading is limited to S&R - I find many
> different and unique applications (I call my style Dynamic Trading -
> no lookback lagging indicators) e.g. KO talked the other day about
> the 'smoothing' indicator spikes - I consider smoothing to suffer
> from lagging and I am more interested in where the peak fits into a
> typical range - range is a dynamic form of approximating
significance.
>
> > S&R ......never will be "curve fitting". It exists. It's an
> inherent
> > part of even a RANDOM event system (as many think the markets are
> > anyway).
>
> I am not sure what you mean by S&R being part of Random market
> behaviour. I don't think I agree with that.
>
> I consider the market as exhibiting 'random like' behaviour (a
> randome walk with a limp) - human nature leaves its mark on the
> market and that is where we find the edge we can exploit - I have
> posted at least one example of this, if not more, in the past (even
> the recent past).
>
> > FORGET about automated strategies if you are not already a
> >successful
> > market operator.
>
> 100% agree.
>
> The same goes for leveraged trading (even more so).
>
> That is why I consistently plug US equities as the market to cut
our
> teeth on - if we can consistently win there then we can
consistently
> win anywhere (including with AT and leveraged trading).
>
> BTW - I thought the trading record of the top equity traders in the
> Robbins WorldCupofTrading is pretty average - IMO consistent triple
> figures are there for the taking in equity trading.
>
> (Also the reason I plug Yahoo US data - good enough to learn
trading
> with - anyone who can't get 30-40%, in testing there, isn't go to
be
> a long term winner in the markets - that is only the starting line.
>
> > If you're too scared to trade a live market or place orders by
your
> > own hand some time during the day based on end-of-day data etc
>
> re live trading - My tentative view is that 'live' trading is a
very
> important part of the learning process - for a start, as we have
> seen, historical data is very slippery and the brokers platform is
> the 'real' market (clearly shown in Hermans' posts on RT trading).
>
> We say we are 'mechanical traders' but I am not - I am a rule based
> trader - AB and backtesting etc are tools that I use to traing and
> hone my 'trading min' but in the end I can trade without them - I
> take pride in being able to 'read' the market and trade 'live' -
> hands on - there is a certain amount of discrepancy involved - it
is
> still rule based but rules can be applied mentally (no computer
> required if necessary).
>
> Sometimes I wonder if this might actually be the best way to trade
> (not withstanding the outstanding ideas on AT presented by Herman).
>
> > re FFT
>
> I wouldn't go so far as to tell others not to study it.
> They might find something there or, as if often the case, find some
> good ideas from failure.
>
> I personally don't rate the chance highly but I do make mistakes
and
> have blind spots.
>
> brian_z
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "scourt2000" <stevehite@> wrote:
> >
> >
> > If your time has value, then don't waste it looking into FFT as
an
> > edge in the markets.
> >
> > If your goal is to make money from the stock/futures market, then
> > very simple things work as long as you apply good risk/reward
> > management.
> >
> > The more complex you make this game, the more you wind up curve
> > fitting your ideas to try and match what the market is currently
> > doing. Don't do that. You will either eventually lose all of
your
> > risk money and quit this game or quit by sheer frustration.
> >
> > From a technical perspective, support and resistance never has
been
> > and never will be "curve fitting". It exists. It's an inherent
> > part of even a RANDOM event system (as many think the markets are
> > anyway). It's observable and it's better than a 50/50 edge.
It's
> > not momentum based so you are never LAGGING the market. It's
just
> > you standing in front of price (before price gets to you) with
the
> > knowledge that it will reverse more times than not before you get
> > stopped out. That's all you need. You don't need to pay for
> anyone
> > else's advice or buy their "proprietary indicators". That's all
> just
> > a game to part you from your money.
> >
> > Here's what you need to do first:
> >
> > FORGET about automated strategies if you are not already a
> successful
> > market operator. That's right. Until you have the experience and
> > skill level to make money by your own hand in the markets FIRST,
> then
> > don't ever think that you'll ever find something that works by
> > throwing math at the markets. This is a game which involves your
> > personal interaction with it in order to learn solid lessons in
> what
> > to do and not do the next time around.
> >
> > If you're too scared to trade a live market or place orders by
your
> > own hand some time during the day based on end-of-day data, then
> you
> > need to understand something very important in order to save you
> much
> > emotional pain and financial anguish: quit. That's it. Game
> over.
> > Trading is not for you. You'll need to either go to T-Bills /
> CD's
> > or put your money in the hands of financial professionals who, I
> > assure you, have no problems throwing your money at gawd knows
what
> > in order to churn out some end-of-year percentage gain or loss
and
> > gawd knows how much that will affect the taxes you pay based on
how
> > much they churned your money in the process.
> >
> > Inexperienced / unsuccessful traders automate unsuccessful
> systems.
> > They have no choice in the matter really. It's what they do
best.
> >
> > Successful / experienced traders (by their own hand FIRST) have a
> > good shot at turning what they do that's proven to make money
into
> an
> > automated system.
> >
> > It's as simple as that. I promise you.
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, renuka <pinkglassfairy@> wrote:
> > >
> > > hi,
> > >
> > > can anyone tell me where i can learn abt FFT ...how to
interpret
> it
> > i mean.
> > >
> > > thanx
> > >
> > >
> > > kmckiou <kmckiou@> wrote: Hi!
> > > Has anyone used Fourier transforms (fft) to filter price
data?
> I
> > tried
> > > the example provided in the description of fft and it worked
as
> > > expected, but it is not being used as a filter - it is just
> > plotting
> > > the dominant cycle. I suspect the necessary building blocks
are
> > present
> > > in this example, but my knowledge of Fourier transforms is
> pretty
> > weak,
> > > so, I thought I would ask if anyone had already coded a
program
> to
> > > filter price data using transforms before I started hacking
> about.
> > >
> > > Thanks!
> > >
> > > - Kevin
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Om namah shivay
> > >
> > >
> > > ---------------------------------
> > > Explore your hobbies and interests. Click here to begin.
> > >
> >
>
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