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Thanks,
I am still developing after approx 4 years so 300-400 is a tentative
figure (I didn't pluck it out of thin air - it forced itself upon me
by observation). For that reason this is 'newish' thinking for me so
your comments are a perfect help for me to foramlise my thinking on
the subject.
Thanks for posting.
Obviously I am getting to the point where I am going out on a limb,
relative to other traders, so confirmation from 1-2 other traders is
all I need to accept that I am not going up a dead end gully.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Dennis Brown <see3d@xxx> wrote:
>
> Brian,
>
> Points taken --though, I have a goal of 500% average in my trading
> simulations. I also have a theoretical trading mode for how good
the
> entries are with perfect exits and how good the exits are with
perfect
> entries. That gives me a real good idea about what my upper limit
> is. It also lets me explore the profit potential of different
> timeframes so I can focus on the best ones for my trading style.
It
> is good to know what can be achieved so you know when you have
arrived.
>
> Best regards,
> Dennis
>
>
> On Feb 26, 2008, at 5:18 PM, brian_z111 wrote:
>
> > Dennis,
> >
> >> No need to argue the point.
> >
> > I believe there is a need to argue the point because negative
> > comments from other traders affect the way we trade and shouldn't
go
> > unchallenged, especially if they not accompanied by objective
> > evidence.
> >
> > I stand by my comment that 300-400%PA is the theoretical upper
limit,
> > because if we are accepting actual returns of 40%PA we are not
aiming
> > high enough and need to make a mental adjustment.
> >
> >> Everyone is right, depending on the
> >> particular circumstances.
> >
> > No, everyone is not right depending on circumstances.
> > To be 'right' means that our observations can be independently
> > verified by others.
> >
> > If that isn't the case we are only suffering from self-delusion.
> >
> > I agree with your points 100%.
> >
> > Thnakyou very much for posting them.
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Dennis Brown <see3d@> wrote:
> >>
> >> No need to argue the point. Everyone is right, depending on the
> >> particular circumstances.
> >>
> >> As I have pointed out before, very high returns (>3%/day
average)
> > are
> >> being made by some traders I know using hardly more than a ruler
> > for
> >> their TA --trading trend lines and support and resistance levels
> > on
> >> very short timeframes (seconds to minutes) --and perhaps a couple
> > of
> >> indicators like MACD or CCI. The key is leverage and that the
> >> winnings are not compounded, but taken off the table and used to
> > live
> >> on, or put into more conservative long term positions. The
market
> > can
> >> not support large dollar compounding more than the average of the
> > long
> >> term growth of the better performing issues. You can skim large
%
> > off
> >> small $ if you fly below the radar. Greed will not work to your
> >> advantage.
> >>
> >> Dennis
> >>
> >> On Feb 26, 2008, at 9:50 AM, dave_88_1961 wrote:
> >>
> >>>
> >>> 100% can be made in the early years but as the account grows
> > returns
> >>> diminish.
> >>>
> >>> Dave
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>> A profit of 1% per day, every trading day, grows so fast that
> > the
> >>>>> account balance is larger than all the real estate in the US
in
> > just
> >>>>> a few years.
> >>>>
> >>>> Hypothetical numbers can be quoted to create a desired effect
> > e.g. if
> >>>> we put it this way, things look a lot different:
> >>>>
> >>>> A trader starting with $100K who returns 100%PA on average, and
> >>>> trades for 10 years, would be able to afford to buy a home in
San
> >>>> Jose Calfornia, but not the best one in the area.
> >>>>
> >>>> Do you think many traders with that kind of performance would
> >>>> continue to trade after 10 successful years?
> >>>>
> >>>> brian_z
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" brian_z111@
wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> I draw your attention to the following article, especially
item
> > 3:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> "Who is the most unusual trader you ever interviewed"?
> >>>>>
> >>>>> http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1363
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Two consecutive 300%PA plus public performances from Mark
Cook.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> It is possible that he was just incredibly lucky (are we
fooled
> > by
> >>>>> randomness a la Taleb)?
> >>>>>
> >>>>> He was also incredibly lucky for a period spanning 6 years
> > before
> >>>>> that (trading bonds and stock indexes!)
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Note that the period 1992-1993 when he publically achieved
those
> >>>>> results was not a particularly outstanding two years for
> > equities.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> brian_z
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > wrote:
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Howard,
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>>> Any time someone suggests a growth of more than about 40%
per
> >>>>> year,
> >>>>>>> take that with a very large grain of salt.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> I expected you to disagree with my statement.
> >>>>>> I'm sure a lot of traders would be aghast at the numbers I
> > quoted
> >>>>> as
> >>>>>> the theoretical potential.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> At his website Professor John Price posts audited returns of
> >>>> approx
> >>>>>> 20-25% PA over a 5 year period, or more, using simple Techno-
> >>>>>> fundamental methods (as I recall the figures).
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> The caveat there is that the sample period is short and
> > selective.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Trading on margin that would return 30-35% PA with less than
> > half
> >>>>> an
> >>>>>> hour a days work and no effort to use any other timing
> > mechanisms.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> If your statement is true we can all give up any further
> > efforts
> >>>>> and
> >>>>>> simple trade his method.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> Similarly, the ASX, which is a high dividend paying market
(due
> >>>> to
> >>>>>> franking) has total returns of in excess of 15% PA on average
> >>>> over
> >>>>>> longer time periods.
> >>>>>> Using simple leveraged buy&hold strategies that is 20-25%
> > without
> >>>>> any
> >>>>>> ongoing effort required what-so-ever.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> In "Stock Market Wizards", Schwager, Jack.D, Harper Business
> > 2001
> >>>>> the
> >>>>>> first page of the first chapter in the book quotes Stuart
> > Walton,
> >>>>>> fund manager, who achieved "115 percent average annual
> > compounded
> >>>>>> return in trading profits" un 8 consecutive years during the
> >>>>> nineties.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> As I understand it Schwager's books are well researched and
> > based
> >>>>> on
> >>>>>> verifiable case studies?
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> I only opened the book at the first chapter and didn't need
to
> > go
> >>>>> any
> >>>>>> further or to his other 2 books containing similar
testimonies.
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> brian_z
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users
only.
> >>>
> >>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> >>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >>>
> >>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
DEVLOG:
> >>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >>>
> >>> For other support material please check also:
> >>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> >>>
> >>> Yahoo! Groups Links
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
> >
> > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> >
> > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> >
> > For other support material please check also:
> > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
>
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