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Louis,
That would require a book ;-)
A few starting tips:
EOD is an excellent place to start and to cut your teeth.
Daily bars are the natural rythm of the market.
Eventually you have to account for intra-day behaviour.
> What do you think is the best way to get high-returns... Is it
>trend following
Most of us are making money out of trend following (even if we call
it something else). That is why I say there is only one trade and
thousands of ways of describing it.
There are a few traders who make money out of the markets when they
are not moving (option sellers) but they are an exception.
Brokers and people like that are not traders - they are bagmen and
that doesn't count as trading.
The trick is "What consitutes a trend?"
I bet you can't find two traders who can agree on that one (and I
mean Traders, with a capital letter).
In notation:
ave%Won^NumberWins/ave%Loss^NumberLosses == expectancy
express expectancy as a % growth factor == your edge
maximise your edge * high frequency == high returns.
Tip for the day:
When you are in the forum keep your eyes peeled and your nerves
steeled.
Experienced traders post comments that are gold but they do it
without any fanfare - they just slip in, leave the answer we need and
slip out.
Collect the gold deposits and you are there.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Louis Préfontaine"
<rockprog80@xxx> wrote:
>
> What do you think is the best way to get high-returns... Is it
trend
> following, or switching from a breakout to another, or... For now
I need
> to work on EOD data because of work I can't be there all day long,
but what
> kind of system do you believe is the most profitable?
>
> Thanks,
>
> Louis
>
> 2008/2/26, brian_z111 <brian_z111@xxx>:
> >
> > Dennis,
> >
> > > No need to argue the point.
> >
> > I believe there is a need to argue the point because negative
> > comments from other traders affect the way we trade and shouldn't
go
> > unchallenged, especially if they not accompanied by objective
> > evidence.
> >
> > I stand by my comment that 300-400%PA is the theoretical upper
limit,
> > because if we are accepting actual returns of 40%PA we are not
aiming
> > high enough and need to make a mental adjustment.
> >
> > >Everyone is right, depending on the
> > > particular circumstances.
> >
> > No, everyone is not right depending on circumstances.
> > To be 'right' means that our observations can be independently
> > verified by others.
> >
> > If that isn't the case we are only suffering from self-delusion.
> >
> > I agree with your points 100%.
> >
> > Thnakyou very much for posting them.
> >
> > brian_z
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>,
Dennis
> > Brown <see3d@> wrote:
> > >
> > > No need to argue the point. Everyone is right, depending on the
> > > particular circumstances.
> > >
> > > As I have pointed out before, very high returns (>3%/day
average)
> > are
> > > being made by some traders I know using hardly more than a ruler
> > for
> > > their TA --trading trend lines and support and resistance levels
> > on
> > > very short timeframes (seconds to minutes) --and perhaps a
couple
> > of
> > > indicators like MACD or CCI. The key is leverage and that the
> > > winnings are not compounded, but taken off the table and used to
> > live
> > > on, or put into more conservative long term positions. The
market
> > can
> > > not support large dollar compounding more than the average of
the
> > long
> > > term growth of the better performing issues. You can skim large
%
> > off
> > > small $ if you fly below the radar. Greed will not work to your
> > > advantage.
> > >
> > > Dennis
> > >
> > > On Feb 26, 2008, at 9:50 AM, dave_88_1961 wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > > 100% can be made in the early years but as the account grows
> > returns
> > > > diminish.
> > > >
> > > > Dave
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>,
> > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > wrote:
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>> A profit of 1% per day, every trading day, grows so fast
that
> > the
> > > >>> account balance is larger than all the real estate in the
US in
> > just
> > > >>> a few years.
> > > >>
> > > >> Hypothetical numbers can be quoted to create a desired effect
> > e.g. if
> > > >> we put it this way, things look a lot different:
> > > >>
> > > >> A trader starting with $100K who returns 100%PA on average,
and
> > > >> trades for 10 years, would be able to afford to buy a home
in San
> > > >> Jose Calfornia, but not the best one in the area.
> > > >>
> > > >> Do you think many traders with that kind of performance would
> > > >> continue to trade after 10 successful years?
> > > >>
> > > >> brian_z
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>,
> > "brian_z111" brian_z111@ wrote:
> > > >>>
> > > >>> I draw your attention to the following article, especially
item
> > 3:
> > > >>>
> > > >>> "Who is the most unusual trader you ever interviewed"?
> > > >>>
> > > >>> http://www.moneybags.com.au/profile.asp?id=1363
> > > >>>
> > > >>> Two consecutive 300%PA plus public performances from Mark
Cook.
> > > >>>
> > > >>> It is possible that he was just incredibly lucky (are we
fooled
> > by
> > > >>> randomness a la Taleb)?
> > > >>>
> > > >>> He was also incredibly lucky for a period spanning 6 years
> > before
> > > >>> that (trading bonds and stock indexes!)
> > > >>>
> > > >>> Note that the period 1992-1993 when he publically achieved
those
> > > >>> results was not a particularly outstanding two years for
> > equities.
> > > >>>
> > > >>> brian_z
> > > >>>
> > > >>>
> > > >>>
> > > >>>
> > > >>> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx <amibroker%
40yahoogroups.com>,
> > "brian_z111" <brian_z111@>
> > wrote:
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> Howard,
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>>> Any time someone suggests a growth of more than about 40%
per
> > > >>> year,
> > > >>>>> take that with a very large grain of salt.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> I expected you to disagree with my statement.
> > > >>>> I'm sure a lot of traders would be aghast at the numbers I
> > quoted
> > > >>> as
> > > >>>> the theoretical potential.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> At his website Professor John Price posts audited returns
of
> > > >> approx
> > > >>>> 20-25% PA over a 5 year period, or more, using simple
Techno-
> > > >>>> fundamental methods (as I recall the figures).
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> The caveat there is that the sample period is short and
> > selective.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> Trading on margin that would return 30-35% PA with less
than
> > half
> > > >>> an
> > > >>>> hour a days work and no effort to use any other timing
> > mechanisms.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> If your statement is true we can all give up any further
> > efforts
> > > >>> and
> > > >>>> simple trade his method.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> Similarly, the ASX, which is a high dividend paying market
(due
> > > >> to
> > > >>>> franking) has total returns of in excess of 15% PA on
average
> > > >> over
> > > >>>> longer time periods.
> > > >>>> Using simple leveraged buy&hold strategies that is 20-25%
> > without
> > > >>> any
> > > >>>> ongoing effort required what-so-ever.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> In "Stock Market Wizards", Schwager, Jack.D, Harper
Business
> > 2001
> > > >>> the
> > > >>>> first page of the first chapter in the book quotes Stuart
> > Walton,
> > > >>>> fund manager, who achieved "115 percent average annual
> > compounded
> > > >>>> return in trading profits" un 8 consecutive years during
the
> > > >>> nineties.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> As I understand it Schwager's books are well researched and
> > based
> > > >>> on
> > > >>>> verifiable case studies?
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> I only opened the book at the first chapter and didn't
need to
> > go
> > > >>> any
> > > >>>> further or to his other 2 books containing similar
testimonies.
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>> brian_z
> > > >>>>
> > > >>>
> > > >>
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between users
only.
> > > >
> > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly
to
> > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > > >
> > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
DEVLOG:
> > > > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> > > >
> > > > For other support material please check also:
> > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > > >
> > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
>
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