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Hi Tomasz,
Wednesday, January 23, 2008, 10:23:46 AM, you wrote:
TJ> You may have some valid points here but
TJ> 10% for me at least is not really anything worth panicing
TJ> plus making people belive that central bank will always step in and
TJ> bail out the market in case of any 5% down move
TJ> makes people just more reckless in their decisions and this in turn
TJ> may create new (old?) problems in long term.
I'm inclined to agree that stepping in *every* time the market burps
is a big mistake. There have been some instances recently where I
think I would *not* have stepped in. This time, I think it was
warranted, but the market now regularly demands it, so it may not be
very effective. We'll see how the market assimilates this action
over the next few bars. I actually did not think they would act last
night (my time) because I thought they greatly risked having the
market drive right over the policy action like it was road kill. As
it was, the US market did actually close down, not up, with a 3/4
point rate cut that went more than one-sixth of the way to zero from
where it was. But they are buying some cooling off time, and keeping
the "we have unlimited funds, and we are shorting" crowd, at bay, at
least for a while.
As far as the percentage declines go, they are meaningless of course
without also graphing time. 10 percent in a month would be annoying,
but not a panic. 10 percent in two days, while a key market is
closed but its futures are looking like they are going over a cliff,
almost surely qualifies as a panic. At least "Chopper Ben" and his
flight crew thought so, anyway.
Yuki
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