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Hello,
You may have some valid points here but
10% for me at least is not really anything worth panicing
plus making people belive that central bank will always step in and
bail out the market in case of any 5% down move
makes people just more reckless in their decisions and this in turn
may create new (old?) problems in long term.
Best regards,
Tomasz Janeczko
amibroker.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Tomasz Janeczko" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, January 23, 2008 2:00 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Helicopter Ben :-)
> Hi Tomasz,
>
> Yes, when world equity markets drop ~10 percent in 2 days in concert,
> you are talking 10s, maybe 100s of trillions of dollars. Yes, a lot
> of that is just 1s and 0s stored on computers, but if you don't agree
> that its presence, or its sudden disappearance, influences human
> behavior to a tremendous extent, then I don't know what I could
> possibly say to convince you otherwise. The markets certainly
> believe that all those 1s and 0s that have recently disappeared from
> major money center banks have some real consequences.
>
> You know I'm hardly going to argue against the cyclical nature of
> markets. I have long made a nice living off of them. But sudden,
> violent contractions in wealth have real consequences. The Fed knows
> there is little they can ultimately do about the market's course, but
> they are going to try and turn a waterfall into at least a cascade,
> or a rapids. That's probably a good idea, too.
>
> At times like yesterday, anything that gets people thinking, even a
> little bit, instead of reacting in blind panic, is probably a good
> idea. Markets are acting like a deep and long recession is already
> baked into the cake. Maybe, but not necessarily. Tossing a monkey
> wrench into the wheels of the panic bus in order to maybe slow it
> down a little is probably not a bad idea.
>
> Also, as I'm sure you know, but as your words seem to obfuscate,
> lowering interest rates is not exactly the same thing as printing
> money.
>
> And I think it is competition, not recessions, that do the real heavy
> lifting of improving efficiency.
>
> Yuki
>
> Wednesday, January 23, 2008, 8:42:07 AM, you wrote:
>
> TJ> Hello,
>
> TJ> Trillions of dollars ? Or rather "paper profit" (the numbers stored in computers)?
> TJ> The entire nature is cyclical. Autumn and winter comes after summer, what's wrong with that?
>
> TJ> Recession follows the period of growth. And it forces companies to seek
> TJ> more efficiency and makes them more competitive. That's healthy for the economy.
> TJ> Fed printing money does not make you wealthier, you will just see more zeros in numbers
> TJ> on your computer screen but this means nothing. What's the difference if someone
> TJ> is losing wealth by market fall or by money devaluation? Only the one who has the printer
> TJ> benefits from that.
>
> TJ> Best regards,
> TJ> Tomasz Janeczko
> TJ> amibroker.com
> TJ> ----- Original Message -----
> TJ> From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> TJ> To: "Dennis Brown" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> TJ> Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 11:34 PM
> TJ> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Helicopter Ben :-)
>
>
>>> Hi Dennis,
>>>
>>> Think about what you said compared to the reality of the situation.
>>> Nearly unregulated free-market capitalism (as in CDOs, SIVs, et al)
>>> just about brought down the house.
>>>
>>> It's a funny cognitive dissonance. Ultra-right religious
>>> conservatives (not saying you are one), who are often also pure
>>> laissez faire market people (ditto), accept the negatives of human
>>> nature as inevitable when it comes to moral issues. But somehow,
>>> this same negative human nature is presumed, one would apparently
>>> suppose, to just vanish once human beings step forth into the holy
>>> cathedral of completely unregulated capitalism. "Let the markets run
>>> themselves completely," they say. But every time they get their way,
>>> they or the markets just about run the truck into a ditch.
>>>
>>> There. If you start a thread with serious potential for *conflict*,
>>> Dennis, load the wagons! ^_-
>>>
>>> Yuki
>>>
>>> P.S. Given the non-zero sum nature of equity markets, and their
>>> size, it's probably not a bad idea to do something in an attempt to
>>> stop potentially trillions upon trillions of dollars from simply
>>> being panicked out of existence. Money is simply uncreated, to use a
>>> rather ugly phrase, for the most part. That was allowed to happen in
>>> the early 1930s, with pretty sad consequences.
>>>
>>> Wednesday, January 23, 2008, 12:38:32 AM, you wrote:
>>>
>>> DB> Hello Tomasz,
>>>
>>> DB> There are many of us in this country (USA) that want to see the
>>> DB> markets take care of themselves. Unfortunately not enough are aware
>>> DB> of the issues involved and there is only one person running for
>>> DB> President that has that goal --Ron Paul.
>>>
>>> DB> It may take a complete financial disaster before everyone wakes up
>>> DB> and realizes that centralized control does not work well. No small
>>> DB> committee can understand all the factors involved in an economy. If
>>> DB> they could, then it follows that a small number of people (or an
>>> DB> individual) could know enough to make a quick fortune in fundamental
>>> DB> investing. And we know how hard that is to achieve!
>>>
>>> DB> Best regards,
>>> DB> Dennis
>>>
>>> DB> On Jan 22, 2008, at 10:23 AM, Tomasz Janeczko wrote:
>>>
>>>>> Hello,
>>>>>
>>>>> So helicopter Ben is in full panic mode now :-)
>>>>>
>>>>> It is pretty amazing and funny to see how this "free economy" is
>>>>> hand-operated :-)
>>>>>
>>>>> Best regards,
>>>>> Tomasz Janeczko
>>>>> amibroker.com
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>>>>>
>>>>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>>>>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>>>>>
>>>>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
>>>>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>>>>>
>>>>> For other support material please check also:
>>>>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>>>>>
>>>>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>>>
>>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>>>
>>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
>>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>>>
>>> For other support material please check also:
>>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>>>
>>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>
> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>
> For other support material please check also:
> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
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