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Hi Tomasz,
Yes, when world equity markets drop ~10 percent in 2 days in concert,
you are talking 10s, maybe 100s of trillions of dollars. Yes, a lot
of that is just 1s and 0s stored on computers, but if you don't agree
that its presence, or its sudden disappearance, influences human
behavior to a tremendous extent, then I don't know what I could
possibly say to convince you otherwise. The markets certainly
believe that all those 1s and 0s that have recently disappeared from
major money center banks have some real consequences.
You know I'm hardly going to argue against the cyclical nature of
markets. I have long made a nice living off of them. But sudden,
violent contractions in wealth have real consequences. The Fed knows
there is little they can ultimately do about the market's course, but
they are going to try and turn a waterfall into at least a cascade,
or a rapids. That's probably a good idea, too.
At times like yesterday, anything that gets people thinking, even a
little bit, instead of reacting in blind panic, is probably a good
idea. Markets are acting like a deep and long recession is already
baked into the cake. Maybe, but not necessarily. Tossing a monkey
wrench into the wheels of the panic bus in order to maybe slow it
down a little is probably not a bad idea.
Also, as I'm sure you know, but as your words seem to obfuscate,
lowering interest rates is not exactly the same thing as printing
money.
And I think it is competition, not recessions, that do the real heavy
lifting of improving efficiency.
Yuki
Wednesday, January 23, 2008, 8:42:07 AM, you wrote:
TJ> Hello,
TJ> Trillions of dollars ? Or rather "paper profit" (the numbers stored in computers)?
TJ> The entire nature is cyclical. Autumn and winter comes after summer, what's wrong with that?
TJ> Recession follows the period of growth. And it forces companies to seek
TJ> more efficiency and makes them more competitive. That's healthy for the economy.
TJ> Fed printing money does not make you wealthier, you will just see more zeros in numbers
TJ> on your computer screen but this means nothing. What's the difference if someone
TJ> is losing wealth by market fall or by money devaluation? Only the one who has the printer
TJ> benefits from that.
TJ> Best regards,
TJ> Tomasz Janeczko
TJ> amibroker.com
TJ> ----- Original Message -----
TJ> From: "Yuki Taga" <yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
TJ> To: "Dennis Brown" <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
TJ> Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 11:34 PM
TJ> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Helicopter Ben :-)
>> Hi Dennis,
>>
>> Think about what you said compared to the reality of the situation.
>> Nearly unregulated free-market capitalism (as in CDOs, SIVs, et al)
>> just about brought down the house.
>>
>> It's a funny cognitive dissonance. Ultra-right religious
>> conservatives (not saying you are one), who are often also pure
>> laissez faire market people (ditto), accept the negatives of human
>> nature as inevitable when it comes to moral issues. But somehow,
>> this same negative human nature is presumed, one would apparently
>> suppose, to just vanish once human beings step forth into the holy
>> cathedral of completely unregulated capitalism. "Let the markets run
>> themselves completely," they say. But every time they get their way,
>> they or the markets just about run the truck into a ditch.
>>
>> There. If you start a thread with serious potential for *conflict*,
>> Dennis, load the wagons! ^_-
>>
>> Yuki
>>
>> P.S. Given the non-zero sum nature of equity markets, and their
>> size, it's probably not a bad idea to do something in an attempt to
>> stop potentially trillions upon trillions of dollars from simply
>> being panicked out of existence. Money is simply uncreated, to use a
>> rather ugly phrase, for the most part. That was allowed to happen in
>> the early 1930s, with pretty sad consequences.
>>
>> Wednesday, January 23, 2008, 12:38:32 AM, you wrote:
>>
>> DB> Hello Tomasz,
>>
>> DB> There are many of us in this country (USA) that want to see the
>> DB> markets take care of themselves. Unfortunately not enough are aware
>> DB> of the issues involved and there is only one person running for
>> DB> President that has that goal --Ron Paul.
>>
>> DB> It may take a complete financial disaster before everyone wakes up
>> DB> and realizes that centralized control does not work well. No small
>> DB> committee can understand all the factors involved in an economy. If
>> DB> they could, then it follows that a small number of people (or an
>> DB> individual) could know enough to make a quick fortune in fundamental
>> DB> investing. And we know how hard that is to achieve!
>>
>> DB> Best regards,
>> DB> Dennis
>>
>> DB> On Jan 22, 2008, at 10:23 AM, Tomasz Janeczko wrote:
>>
>>>> Hello,
>>>>
>>>> So helicopter Ben is in full panic mode now :-)
>>>>
>>>> It is pretty amazing and funny to see how this "free economy" is
>>>> hand-operated :-)
>>>>
>>>> Best regards,
>>>> Tomasz Janeczko
>>>> amibroker.com
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>>>>
>>>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
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>>>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
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>>>>
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>>>>
>>>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>>
>> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
>> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>>
>> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG:
>> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
>>
>> For other support material please check also:
>> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>>
>> Yahoo! Groups Links
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