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>Lets stick to the topic of Amibroker and the ways we can profit from
>the
>situations the markets offer.
Most of the time "we" discuss formulas etc followed by data and
trading applications but sometimes that gets a bit sterile and I
personally like to see an occassional wider ranging discussion.
I don't do politics or religion (too boring anyway) but I am enjoyng
the discussion on 'economics' and it is good to see Tomasz relaxed
and chatting with us and Yuki adding her unique coloration to the
board.
Re trading oppurtunities:
I am a rule based technical trader (for want of a better description)
so I trade as if I am in an economic vacuum but I have to ask myself
should I keep doing that as part of the continual search for
improvement. On that basis I like to encourage people to chat about
peripheral trading topics because more often than not someone will
let something useful slip.
So the interest for me in the current conversation is that I am
thinking about whether TA did a better job of predicting the
current 'correction' than fundamental or economic analysis.
Undoubtedly some people have been following, or even anticipating,
the sub-prime fallout etc. I'm not one of them, because of my style,
but if any of the chat in this thread sheds any light on that subject
I am all for it.
I did offer some specifics for the Australian market (although they
are probably not worth much):
1) some of the Aussie banks have exposure to the US sub-prime market
2) Aussie majors have upped their margins to pay for that - this is a
move the Aussie (Fed) should have anticipated but couldn't influence
(theoretically) - this came on top of 'official' tightenings.
3) The Aussie 'tightening' appeared to be nearing the end of the
cycle.
4) The effect on consumer confidence, and hence spending, caused by
the current market 'correction' is LIKELY to have tipped the balance
in favour of an end to, or a pause in AUD interest rate rises for a
while.
Also for what it is worth:
I was recently in New Zealand. The Aus major banks are owners of NZ
majors.
Kiwis are fiercely patriotic and anti Australian (in a fiendly big
brother way) - The NZ government has formed a local national bank
(KiwiBank) - as far as I know it is not a publically listed company.
Any one who follows the Aus banks and uses traditional fundamental
analysis might benefit from keeping an eye on KiwiBank and its future
impact on the Aus majors. KiwiBank has the sentimental favouritism
amongst Kiwis.
brian_z
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dmcleod1981" <dmcleod1981@xxx>
wrote:
>
> Yuki,
>
> Surprised to read of you leaning towards regulations when your own
> economy is one of the most stagnant large economies and over
regulated
> in the world. Your talking about the problems of SIV's, CDO's etc
> seems to be the pot calling the kettle black as your banking system
> still carries the burden of debt taken on the books from over 20
years
> ago. None of us are fans of what is happening in the US as even
though
> perhaps its not the primary driver of world economic activity
anymore
> it is still one of the largest consumers.
>
> I am not trying to make a case of regulation is bad, however, over
> regulation is can be just as harmful as inadequate or inept.
>
> Not sure how the tangent of religious views entered the thread but
> that begins to encroach on subject matter like politics that is best
> kept off of the list.
>
> Lets stick to the topic of Amibroker and the ways we can profit from
> the situations the markets offer.
>
> Thanks,
> DM
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@> wrote:
> >
> > Hi Dennis,
> >
> > Think about what you said compared to the reality of the
situation.
> > Nearly unregulated free-market capitalism (as in CDOs, SIVs, et
al)
> > just about brought down the house.
> >
> > It's a funny cognitive dissonance. Ultra-right religious
> > conservatives (not saying you are one), who are often also pure
> > laissez faire market people (ditto), accept the negatives of human
> > nature as inevitable when it comes to moral issues. But somehow,
> > this same negative human nature is presumed, one would apparently
> > suppose, to just vanish once human beings step forth into the holy
> > cathedral of completely unregulated capitalism. "Let the markets
run
> > themselves completely," they say. But every time they get their
way,
> > they or the markets just about run the truck into a ditch.
> >
> > There. If you start a thread with serious potential for
*conflict*,
> > Dennis, load the wagons! ^_-
> >
> > Yuki
> >
> > P.S. Given the non-zero sum nature of equity markets, and their
> > size, it's probably not a bad idea to do something in an attempt
to
> > stop potentially trillions upon trillions of dollars from simply
> > being panicked out of existence. Money is simply uncreated, to
use a
> > rather ugly phrase, for the most part. That was allowed to happen
in
> > the early 1930s, with pretty sad consequences.
> >
> > Wednesday, January 23, 2008, 12:38:32 AM, you wrote:
> >
> > DB> Hello Tomasz,
> >
> > DB> There are many of us in this country (USA) that want to see
the
> > DB> markets take care of themselves. Unfortunately not enough
are aware
> > DB> of the issues involved and there is only one person running
for
> > DB> President that has that goal --Ron Paul.
> >
> > DB> It may take a complete financial disaster before everyone
wakes up
> > DB> and realizes that centralized control does not work well. No
> small
> > DB> committee can understand all the factors involved in an
economy. If
> > DB> they could, then it follows that a small number of people (or
an
> > DB> individual) could know enough to make a quick fortune in
fundamental
> > DB> investing. And we know how hard that is to achieve!
> >
> > DB> Best regards,
> > DB> Dennis
> >
> > DB> On Jan 22, 2008, at 10:23 AM, Tomasz Janeczko wrote:
> >
> > >> Hello,
> > >>
> > >> So helicopter Ben is in full panic mode now :-)
> > >>
> > >> It is pretty amazing and funny to see how this "free economy"
is
> > >> hand-operated :-)
> > >>
> > >> Best regards,
> > >> Tomasz Janeczko
> > >> amibroker.com
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Please note that this group is for discussion between users
only.
> > >>
> > >> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> > >> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
> > >>
> > >> For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check
DEVLOG:
> > >> http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/
> > >>
> > >> For other support material please check also:
> > >> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
> > >>
> > >> Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
>
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