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"Theorize, and then test the theory for validity."
If you want to play in the trading world's "scientific method sandbox," propose a falsifiable hypothesis and let all chew on it.
Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: "sebastiandanconia" <sebastiandanconia@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2006 11:10 AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
> "...I suggest it is not due to limitations of our equipment, but simply
> a system that is no good as it is explained..."
>
> That's precisely the conclusion I've come to, and it's all Tomasz's
> fault for building AB and making such testing possible.:)
>
> If I can strain your chess analogy a little bit, the edge that
> grandmasters have is that, of all the potential moves available to them
> they can quickly recognize the critical ones and focus on them,
> excluding all the others as unimportant "noise."
>
> As traders, that's what I think we should aspire to. A stock doesn't go
> up because a 5-day EMA crosses above a 20-day EMA or because the
> directional movement index is positive and the ADX is greater than 30.
> Those indicators coincide with the stock's uptrend but aren't the cause.
> Neither is the cause to be found in linear regression, Gann angles,
> Fibonnaci numbers, etc. What is the cause, then? Theorize, and then
> test the theory for validity. That's when we can start to learn
> something. Otherwise, all we're doing is testing random data for
> patterns that are only meaningless coincidences, like the Superbowl
> Theory.
>
> And that's enough sermonizing from me.:)
>
>
> Luck,
>
> Sebastian
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "M Webb" <the_bear_98@xxx> wrote:
>>
>>
>> In the old days, programming a computer to play chess and capture the
> mind of a Grandmaster, with the instant "pattern recognition" they
> possessed was very difficult. It took many years before the combination
> of computing power and programming finally got rolling. Now we have
> programs that will beat you like a borrowed mule. It is easy to grade
> these programs as they have ratings that prove how good they are. During
> this same time frame, we now have the computers and programming to
> really back-test and prove a trading theory might have worked in the
> past. We can go buy a book, program it, and discover it doesn't produce
> a reward/risk worth trying at all. Now in the old days, the Grandmaster
> would say "I only think one move ahead, but it is always the best move."
> We found a way to mostly brute force find the same move, but when we try
> to program one of the successful traders systems, the back-test does not
> pan out. I suggest it is not due to limitations of our equipment, but
> simply a system that is no good as it is explained.
>>
>> Although it might be theoretically possible to combine two losing
> systems with a magic ranking process that could produce an overall
> winner, I feel safe in saying no one can come up with an example they
> would share.
>>
>> Monty
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: allansn@xxx
>> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> Sent: Friday, October 20, 2006 12:44 PM
>> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
>>
>>
>>
>> Just out of curiousity,is it possible to have two non correlated
> trading techniques that show negative backtest results individually,but
> when combined produce above average returns...
>>
>> I am over in Elite trader observing a candlestick debate,and trying
> to understand how "savvy" traders who fully acknowledge that
> candlepatterns fail miserably in backtests insist that they are a great
> confirming indicator..
>>
>> Is there a method to this madness??
>>
>> Allan
>>
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: sebastiandanconia
>> Date: Friday, October 20, 2006 10:33 am
>> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
>> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>> > I've read about this kind of behavior before, and it's a problem
> for
>> > anyone who is trying to emulate the methods of successful (or
>> > allegedlysuccessful) traders. What is happening is that these
>> > traders aren't
>> > fully conscious of everything in their decision-making process.
> There
>> > are "soft" factors that are key to their success that AREN'T in
> their
>> > "written down" or "official" methods. And if every factor isn't
>> > included the method can't be accurately tested for validity.
>> >
>> > JMO, but I suspect that's one of the reasons it's so difficult for
>> > traders to duplicate the success of even legitimate, well-meaning
>> > system-sellers or "gurus." Maybe they really know something
>> > unique, or
>> > maybe they just had a run of luck when their "fuzzy" thinking
>> > paid off
>> > but that particular set of conditions won't ever be repeated.
>> >
>> >
>> > Luck,
>> >
>> > Sebastian
>> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, allansn@ wrote:
>> > >
>> > > Hi Jim,
>> > >
>> > > What I find interesting about various pattern recognitions
>> > such as Edwards and Magee type formations and candlesticks is
>> > when you
>> > backtest them in isolation they simply show no predictive
>> > power.I am
>> > predominantly refferring to Candlesticks as I have done extensive
>> > testing in that area.
>> > >
>> > > Yet,I have friends who strictly trade off them with western
> price
>> > patterns and trendlines and return well over 50% annually.
>> > >
>> > > Others I know use them as a filter to their systematic
> trading,and
>> > they know full well that Candlesticks do not backtest well.But
>> > they wont
>> > trade without them
>> > >
>> > > Interesting how the mind works
>> > >
>> > > Allan
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > From: jwmc107
>> > > Date: Thursday, October 19, 2006 7:48 pm
>> > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart patterns
>> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > >
>> > > >
>> > > > Hi Joe, Brian, Alan and others,
>> > > >
>> > > > Here are Tom's trading results:
>> > > > Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
>> > > > Tomas 14.80% 18.70% 9.00% 13.50% 29.10% 15.40%
>> > > > S&P500 -10.10% -13.00% -23.40% 28.69% 10.88% 4.91%
>> > > > Nasdaq -39.30% -21.10% -31.50% 50.00% 8.60% 1.40%
>> > > > DJIA -6.20% -7.10% -16.80% 28.28% 5.31% 1.72%
>> > > >
>> > > > The results speak that the system works. Hope that someone can
>> > > > make
>> > > > the code available, as I dont have any programming skill
> myself.
>> > > >
>> > > > There are WL codes available, we can just translate it to AFL.
>> > > >
>> > > > Regards,
>> > > > Jim
>> > > >
>> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Joe Landry" wrote:
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Allan
>> > > > > I had to think back a bit. Well I'm schiz'ed, a
>> > > > fundamentalist
>> > > > and a technician. Making money on fundamentals right
>> > > > now(Validea)
>> > > > but I know what
>> > > > > will preserve it is technical analysis.(or risk management?)
>> > > > >
>> > > > > What might be an interesting side note, we had Nelson
> Freeburg
>> > > > of
>> > > > Formula Research give a talk to us last Sat. and
>> > > > > he related as to how his first investment book while he
>> > was at
>> > > > Columbia was Martin Pring's early TA book. This led to his
>> > > > development of a first "system" called Primas (Pring Moving
>> > > > Average
>> > > > System). I've got a cam video of his talk on our server, let
>> > > > me
>> > > > know if you'd like to down load it.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Best regards
>> > > > > JOE
>> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > From: allansn@
>> > > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > > > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 7:53 AM
>> > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart
> patterns
>> > > > >
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Joe,
>> > > > > I am shocked...I never would have taken you for a
>> > > > closet "Edwards and Magee" man :)
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Allan
>> > > > >
>> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > From: Joe Landry
>> > > > > Date: Thursday, October 19, 2006 8:15 am
>> > > > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart
> patterns
>> > > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > > >
>> > > > > > I just dusted it off Dimitris' program again and was
>> > > > stepping
>> > > > > > through the
>> > > > > > selections.
>> > > > > > If you're not familiar with it you might want to check out
>> > > > > > Anthony
>> > > > > > Faragasso's charting script
>> > > > > > as labelled below and in the program library. It's a good
>> > > > > > companion for this
>> > > > > > exploration.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > I tried my hand at on of his most successful patterns
>> > > > called
>> > > > > > "pipes" but was
>> > > > > > not happy with the results.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > BTW Bulkowski has a newer paperback called Getting Started
>> > > > in
>> > > > > > Chart Patterns
>> > > > > > pub within
>> > > > > > the last year.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > As far as Thomas is concerned, I would be a potential
>> > > > customer
>> > > > > > for a set of
>> > > > > > Bulkowski pattern recognition
>> > > > > > routines if such were to be produced and put up for sale.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > Best regards
>> > > > > > JOE
>> > > > > > SECTION_BEGIN("Pattern Recog. Tony Farragasso");
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > // Name and Purpose ----------------- Faragasso Pattern
>> > > > > > Recognition -----------------
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > // Date 11/23/03
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > // Source Anthony Faragasso
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > // Type Indicator, Exploration, AB PT
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > // Patterns Wedge, Broad, Upchannel, Bearish.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > > From: "brian.z123"
>> > > > > > To:
>> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 12:50 AM
>> > > > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: Scan for Bulkowski's chart
> patterns
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Hello Jim,
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Do you mean the chart patterns from Bulkowskis
>> > > > encyclopedia
>> > > > > > (over 60
>> > > > > > > patterns)?
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > If you want to code them in AFL some have been done by
>> > > > Dmitiris
>> > > > > > > Tsokaki! s (Hello Dimitris, I hope the fish are jumping
>> > > > into
>> > > > your
>> > > > > > > boat)....from the AFL library.
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Formula name: Pattern Recognition Exploration
>> > > > > > > Author/Uploader: Dimitris Tsokakis - tsokakis [at]
> oneway.gr
>> > > > > > > Date/Time added: 2001-09-03 14:03:35
>> > > > > > > Origin:
>> > > > > > > Keywords:
>> > > > > > > Level: medium
>> > > > > > > Flags: exploration
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > DISCLAIMER: Most formulas present in AFL on-line
>> > library are
>> > > > > > > submitted by the users and are provided here on an "as
>> > > > is"
>> > > > and "as
>> > > > > > > available" basis. AmiBroker.com makes no
>> > representations or
>> > > > > > > warranties of any kind to the contents or the operation
>> > > > of
>> > > > material
>> > > > > > > presented here. We do not maintain nor provide technical
>> > > > > > support for
>> > > > > > > 3rd party formulas.
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Download formula file | Delete formula
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Description:
>> > > > > > > Paste the code in Automatic Analysis and Explore All
>> > > > Stocks
>> > > > > > for the
>> > > > > > > last date of your data.
>> > > > > > > In Results click twice a label , for example "a TR" and
>> > > > you
>> > > > will
>> > > > > > > collect all ascending Triangles marked with an "1".
>> > > > > > > This Exploration recognizes the following patterns:
>> > > > > > > +Ascending Wedges "aW"
>> > > > > > > +Descending Wedges "dW"
>> > > > > > > + ascending Triangles "a TR"
>> > > > > > > +descending Triangles "d TR"
>> > > > > > > +ascending channel "a ll"
>> > > > > > > +descending channel "d ll"
>> > > > > > > +almost horizontal channel "ll"
>> > > > > > > +Converging Support and Resistance
>> > > > > > > +Diverging Support and Resistance
>> > > > > > > +N/A, ie examples not belonging to any above category.
>> > > > > > > You may decrease sensitivity, changing
>> > > > > > > per=3;
>> > > > > > > with another percentage higher than 3.
>> > > > > > > For Indicator Builder paste the code in Comments
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > It would be an interesting project to code all of the
>> > > > major
>> > > > patterns
>> > > > > > > (if it hasn'! t been d one already).
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > There is also a formula there for identifying candle
>> > > > patterns
>> > > > > > by Top
>> > > > > > > Gun Herman van den Bergen....
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Converting candles to bar chart patterns would be
> another
>> > > > > > > interesting project.
>> > > > > > > I'll do both projects if I run out of things to do.
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > I haven't tried either of the formulas....I just noticed
>> > > > them there
>> > > > > > > the other day so passing it on to you.
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > BrianB2.
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jwmc107" wrote:
>> > > > > > >>
>> > > > > > >>
>> > > > > > >>
>> > > > > > >> Is there any AFL code to scan for Bulkowski's chart
>> > > > patterns and
>> > > > > > > to
>> > > > > > >> share with?
>> > > > > > >>
>> > > > > > >> Thanks,
>> > > > > > >> Jim
>> > > > > > >>
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Please note that this group is for discussion between
>> > > > users
>> > > > only.
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail
>> > > > directly
>> > > > to
>> > > > > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > For other support material please check also:
>> > > > > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > >
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>>
>
>
>
>
>
> Please note that this group is for discussion between users only.
>
> To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
> SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com
>
> For other support material please check also:
> http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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