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When I try to filter a stock list of over 20,000, technical criteria
alone does not filter much. I am forced to use fundamental criteria
to reduce the list to single digits, at the same time, enforce my
contrarian strategy. For eg., using the filter "optionable stocks"
among others (because optionable stocks tend to be "safe" which
actually is the missing link in stocks), I reduce the list
substantially, which makes the resulting list more to my liking.
But, technical criteria has to signal the "go" for making an
investment decision, unless one is of the Buffet types who can
withstand the dd's.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "fgornati" <francogornati@xxxx>
wrote:
>
> Hey Mark,
> sure, I agree. Imo every 'good' stock should go up eventually but
not
> every stock that's going up may be a 'good' stock. So if I'd want to
> go long I'd choose from the universe of the stocks that are going
up.
> Taking into account the fundamentals may increase the staying
> confidence and the probability to pick a return that's in the queues
> of the distribution. Otherwise, it may be better to adopt a
different trade management, imo.
> Anyway, one has to start from technicals. And often it might be
enough.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "quanttrader714"
> <quanttrader714@xxxx> wrote:
> >
> > Hi Franco,
> >
> > Interesting link! But even if you get the fundamentals right
(which
> > can be incredibly difficult) as the old saying goes -- the market
> can
> > remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
> >
> > Mark
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Franco Gornati
> <francogornati@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > Well .. should be said that Enron was the big short of Jim
Chanos
> > just on
> > > the merit of its fundamentals but his analysis was not the of
kind
> > that
> > > can be systemized or backtested and sure one that needs a high
> > level of
> > > expertise.
> > > Here's his testimony to the Full Committee on Energy and
Commerce
> > >
> > http://energycommerce.house.gov/107/hearings/02062
> > 002Hearing483/Chanos782.htm
> > >
> > > -Franco
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message ---------------
> > >
> > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Technical Vs technofundamental
> trading
> > > From: "duke.jones" <Duke.Jones@xxxx>
> > > Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 22:38:47
> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
> > > amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > > >
> > > >Have to agree with Fred here...by the time the fundamentals
> turned
> > the stock was in the teens. Here is a little history.
> > http://208.149.108.73/pubfiles/enecollapse.pdf
> > > >
> > > >Duke Jones, CMT
> > > >
> > > >-------Original Message-------
> > > >> From: "Fred" <ftonetti@xxxx>
> > > >> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Technical Vs technofundamental
trading
> > > >> Sent: 07 Feb 2005 22:31:13
> > > >>
> > > >> Price action in Enron was more than enough to tell one where
> > Enron
> > > >> was going or at least that one didn't wnat to be long in it
> way
> > > >> before in serious price trouble. The fundamentals lagged in
> > that
> > > >> case simply because they weren't being accurately reported
but
> > in any
> > > >> case fundamentals lag. One can certainly use general market
> > prices
> > > >> as an indicator of where the economy is going but it doesn't
> > work the
> > > >> other way around.
> > > >>
> > > >> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Pal Anand" wrote:
> > > >> >
> > > >> > Hi,
> > > >> >
> > > >> > I agree with what was said in another forum by another
> member,
> > that
> > > >> > if people had followed the proper fundamental criteria
> > (inaddition
> > > >> to
> > > >> > technical criteria), they wouldn't have bought Enron and
> many
> > other
> > > >> > financial basket cases.
> > > >> >
> > > >> > rgds, Pal
> > > >> >
> > > >> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Claude Caruana"
> > > >> > wrote:
> > > >> > > Hi all,
> > > >> > >
> > > >> > > I am an Amibroker user for a few weeks now and I must
say
> > it is
> > > >> > about to
> > > >> > > turn my trading method 180%.
> > > >> > >
> > > >> > > I initially purchased Amibroker to be able to generate
> > optimal
> > > >> > signals for a
> > > >> > > watchlist of around 100 stocks which I have selected for
> > their
> > > >> > fundumentals,
> > > >> > > however I am finding that my results work much better
and
> > more
> > > >> > consistently
> > > >> > > on the entire stock universe (The 7000 tickers I have
> > loaded in
> > > >> my
> > > >> > db) than
> > > >> > > if I try running it on any watchlists containing less
that
> > 200
> > > >> > tickers.
> > > >> > >
> > > >> > > I find that, in general, the most reliable entry signals
> > occur
> > > >> very
> > > >> > > infrequently, and hence, signals are too few and far
apart
> > to
> > > >> create
> > > >> > > consistent results when the basis is my 100 stock
> watchlist.
> > If I
> > > >> > try to
> > > >> > > "loosen the parameters" and get an optimal number of
> > signals for
> > > >> my
> > > >> > 100
> > > >> > > stocks, then the system will not be as reliable as the
one
> > > >> > with "tighter
> > > >> > > parameters" scanning the entire stock universe.
> > > >> > >
> > > >> > > Before I ditch my fundumental approach (which quite
franky
> > has
> > > >> yet
> > > >> > to give
> > > >> > > me positve results!) altogether and start using a
> > technical-only
> > > >> > system, I
> > > >> > > would be very grateful if anybody could confirm whether
my
> > > >> > observation about
> > > >> > > entry signals is normal, or whether I am missing
> something.
> > > >> > Finally, are
> > > >> > > there any of you out there who trade using technicals
> only?
> > > >> > >
> > > >> > > thanks for any feedback!
> > > >> > >
> > > >> > > Claude
> > > >>
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