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Hey Mark,
sure, I agree. Imo every 'good' stock should go up eventually but not
every stock that's going up may be a 'good' stock. So if I'd want to
go long I'd choose from the universe of the stocks that are going up.
Taking into account the fundamentals may increase the staying
confidence and the probability to pick a return that's in the queues
of the distribution. Otherwise, it may be better to adopt a different trade management, imo.
Anyway, one has to start from technicals. And often it might be enough.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "quanttrader714"
<quanttrader714@xxxx> wrote:
>
> Hi Franco,
>
> Interesting link! But even if you get the fundamentals right (which
> can be incredibly difficult) as the old saying goes -- the market
can
> remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
>
> Mark
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Franco Gornati
<francogornati@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Well .. should be said that Enron was the big short of Jim Chanos
> just on
> > the merit of its fundamentals but his analysis was not the of kind
> that
> > can be systemized or backtested and sure one that needs a high
> level of
> > expertise.
> > Here's his testimony to the Full Committee on Energy and Commerce
> >
> http://energycommerce.house.gov/107/hearings/02062
> 002Hearing483/Chanos782.htm
> >
> > -Franco
> >
> > ----- Original Message ---------------
> >
> > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: Technical Vs technofundamental
trading
> > From: "duke.jones" <Duke.Jones@xxxx>
> > Date: Mon, 07 Feb 2005 22:38:47
> > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
> > amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > >
> > >Have to agree with Fred here...by the time the fundamentals
turned
> the stock was in the teens. Here is a little history.
> http://208.149.108.73/pubfiles/enecollapse.pdf
> > >
> > >Duke Jones, CMT
> > >
> > >-------Original Message-------
> > >> From: "Fred" <ftonetti@xxxx>
> > >> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Technical Vs technofundamental trading
> > >> Sent: 07 Feb 2005 22:31:13
> > >>
> > >> Price action in Enron was more than enough to tell one where
> Enron
> > >> was going or at least that one didn't wnat to be long in it
way
> > >> before in serious price trouble. The fundamentals lagged in
> that
> > >> case simply because they weren't being accurately reported but
> in any
> > >> case fundamentals lag. One can certainly use general market
> prices
> > >> as an indicator of where the economy is going but it doesn't
> work the
> > >> other way around.
> > >>
> > >> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Pal Anand" wrote:
> > >> >
> > >> > Hi,
> > >> >
> > >> > I agree with what was said in another forum by another
member,
> that
> > >> > if people had followed the proper fundamental criteria
> (inaddition
> > >> to
> > >> > technical criteria), they wouldn't have bought Enron and
many
> other
> > >> > financial basket cases.
> > >> >
> > >> > rgds, Pal
> > >> >
> > >> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Claude Caruana"
> > >> > wrote:
> > >> > > Hi all,
> > >> > >
> > >> > > I am an Amibroker user for a few weeks now and I must say
> it is
> > >> > about to
> > >> > > turn my trading method 180%.
> > >> > >
> > >> > > I initially purchased Amibroker to be able to generate
> optimal
> > >> > signals for a
> > >> > > watchlist of around 100 stocks which I have selected for
> their
> > >> > fundumentals,
> > >> > > however I am finding that my results work much better and
> more
> > >> > consistently
> > >> > > on the entire stock universe (The 7000 tickers I have
> loaded in
> > >> my
> > >> > db) than
> > >> > > if I try running it on any watchlists containing less that
> 200
> > >> > tickers.
> > >> > >
> > >> > > I find that, in general, the most reliable entry signals
> occur
> > >> very
> > >> > > infrequently, and hence, signals are too few and far apart
> to
> > >> create
> > >> > > consistent results when the basis is my 100 stock
watchlist.
> If I
> > >> > try to
> > >> > > "loosen the parameters" and get an optimal number of
> signals for
> > >> my
> > >> > 100
> > >> > > stocks, then the system will not be as reliable as the one
> > >> > with "tighter
> > >> > > parameters" scanning the entire stock universe.
> > >> > >
> > >> > > Before I ditch my fundumental approach (which quite franky
> has
> > >> yet
> > >> > to give
> > >> > > me positve results!) altogether and start using a
> technical-only
> > >> > system, I
> > >> > > would be very grateful if anybody could confirm whether my
> > >> > observation about
> > >> > > entry signals is normal, or whether I am missing
something.
> > >> > Finally, are
> > >> > > there any of you out there who trade using technicals
only?
> > >> > >
> > >> > > thanks for any feedback!
> > >> > >
> > >> > > Claude
> > >>
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