|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi Andrew,
Monday, February 7, 2005, 10:52:51 PM, you wrote:
AZ> G'day all,
AZ> In playing around with indicators and code trying to come up
AZ> with astrategy to trade that I can follow and trust, I am reliant
AZ> on futureprices meeting certain criteria before I enter a trade.
AZ> Now, I knowwhen I check my strategy in AA in tells me that I'm
AZ> referencing futureprices and the results will be overstated, but
AZ> is this really the case?
AZ> I have a 2 part strategy. The first part tells me when a buy
AZ> setuphappens, according to my indicators. Two days later the
AZ> second parttells me whether to enter a trade or discard it. Ok,
AZ> during backtesting AA did all the work, which it obviously cannot
AZ> do in areal world scenario. But in paper and real trading I will
AZ> be makingthat final entry (or not) decision.
AZ> Am I being given false confidence by my strategy because of
AZ> futurereferences or is my thinking sound?
It's hard to say based on such sketchy information, but if your code
is looking into the future, you cannot expect to get the results
produced by back testing in real trading, period, ever. So I would
say "Yes", probably the results are *way* overstated. Normally,
people who use code that looks into the future initially suspect that
they have found the magic wand, and they start making plans for
spending a lot of money that they are never going to see. It simply
doesn't work that way, and we save most of them from the disaster
that almost surely awaits if such a system were to be traded live.
Also, it sounds like you haven't decided if you have a 'system' or
not, yet. A system means (with very, very few exceptions) that there
are no "entry decisions" to be made, once the system is developed and
tested (where the decisions are made) and deemed worthy of going
live.
Yuki
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~-->
What would our lives be like without music, dance, and theater?
Donate or volunteer in the arts today at Network for Good!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/Tcy2bD/SOnJAA/cosFAA/GHeqlB/TM
--------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Check AmiBroker web page at:
http://www.amibroker.com/
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Yahoo! Groups Links
<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/
<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
amibroker-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|