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You may see the next bar S_R already placed in the
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/RSIc/
folder.
It is quite expressive for the short-term predictions.
Dimitris
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Could be a heck of a dog fight. We were slapped hard right spot on
> the 200-day. This is the third flirtation with this level in the
> past few months, and the other times it looked like we mounted it
> successfully before giving it right back up.
>
> Fifty day and 200-day both virtually flat here, with about a 200
> point spread, give or take. It could be a war. OTOH, we (planet
> earth) are so flush with liquidity still that I suspect we have more
> upside room. Interesting negative cross between Steve's 144 and the
> 200 this week, the first cross since last August. But I don't think
> this is the end of the trend. Nasty to see institutions fail at the
> 200 however. But did they?
>
> Huge volume again in banks and brokers, but especially banks. We
are
> talking 700 million to 1.5 billion dollar plays, almost entirely on
> the long side, this going on for several days now. This is not Dick
> and Jane Suzuki tapping out orders at home. (Ichiro Suzuki, maybe.)
> ^^_^^ But this continued for some time *in the face* of a
significant
> futures failure today. It was only *very* late that, convinced the
> futures would not bounce today, institutions simply stopped
> supporting the bids. Want to bet they won't be back quickly on any
> weakness? And these issues represent the core of the market. They
> (the major banks) still hold a ton of stock in the rest of the
> market. One cannot bid up their shares without thinking the rest of
> the market is undervalued as well. (I'm talking about painting the
> tape again and again with 2000 or 3000 share blocks of
> 5000-dollar-and-higher stocks at a crack, which has been going on
all
> this week. This is *not* retail trade, to be sure.)
>
> Maybe some churning here, but if we take out the 200 now, it may be
a
> while before we'll see it again. I could see 2 to 4 weeks of fairly
> good strength here before a serious pullback.
>
> As for today, you mentioned the "positive" US session. I saw it as
a
> canary in the coal mine. So over bought near term, and even though
> we are significantly less over bought, everyone here realizes the US
> could correct sharply for 3 to 5 days or so, and no one is too eager
> to run a long play into that kind of potential. They gave a lot
back
> in the US last night, and as I mentioned in the case of ^225
futures,
> about all of it.
>
> Remember, they want to shake every long out that they possibly can
> before climbing over the 200 for a run. That may be what we are
> seeing here. Any notion that the big players want us attending the
> party is pure fantasy. ^_^ They want us showing up significantly
> late, ready to absorb some of their profit taking.
>
> Or so it appears from over here.
>
> Yuki
>
> Thursday, November 18, 2004, 5:00:35 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> Where the support is.
> DT> a. Price trendlines : Unfortunately they are ambiguous since
they
> DT> diverge. The resistance slope [defined by Sept8-Oct7 peaks] is
2.76,
> DT> the support slope [defined by Sept28-Oct25 troughs] is -9.031.
> DT> The support trendline was pointing 10,421 after todays close.
> DT> This support will be valid until a new trough appears.
> DT> Will it be higher than Oct25 Low ? [10,575]
> DT> Will it be lower ?
> DT> Who knows...
> DT> The new peak, on the other side, will be [probably] the Nov16
high
> DT> [11,268]
> DT> There is no clear scenario, this session was rather confusing,
you
> DT> turned your face south and you didnt follow the positive US
session...
> DT> b. The [recently posted] RSIc trendlines
>
> DT> //The RSIc trendlines
> DT> procedure RSIc(n)
> DT> {
> DT> C=RSIa(C,n);
> DT> O=RSIa(O,n);
> DT> H=RSIa(H,n);
> DT> H=IIf(H<Max(C,O),Max(C,O),H);
> DT> L=RSIa(L,n);
> L=IIf(L>>Min(C,O),Min(C,O),L);
> DT> }
> DT> n=Param("n",10,10,30,5);//RSI sensitivity
> DT> RSIc(n);
> DT> Plot(C,"RSIc",1,64);
> DT> per = Param("per",10,3,20,1);//trendlines sensitivity
> DT> x = Cum(1);s1=L;s11=H;
> DT> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> DT> endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
> DT> startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
> DT> dtS =endt-startt;
> DT> endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
> DT> startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
> DT> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> DT> trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
> DT> Plot(IIf(x>startt-10,trendlineS,-1e10),"Support",colorYellow,1);
> DT> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> DT> endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 ));
> DT> startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> DT> firstt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 3 ));
> DT> dtR =endt1-startt1;
> DT> endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> DT> startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> DT> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;
> DT> bR = endR;
> DT> trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;
> DT> Plot(IIf(x>startT1-10,trendlineR,-
1e10),"Resistance",colorYellow,1);
>
> DT> give a better short term idea : An almost parallel ASCENDING
channel
> DT> with lower limit at 47. The support line is increasing by
0.9/bar,
> DT> tomorrow it will be 47.92. If you RevEng it you will have
tomorrows
> DT> support at 10,946.
> DT> But, this RSIc channel is very short term and it is quite
sensitive.
> DT> [I will improve this code to give directly the expected Close
range ]
>
> DT> Dimitris
> DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx>
wrote:
> >> I guess nobody over here pays attention to the CME ^225 futures.
> >>
> >> At least a lot of nobodies . . . but I do.
> >>
> >> Despite the pathetic close in Chicago, the bulls came snorting
out
> DT> of
> >> the gate here, and they ran the futures to 11,250 in no short
order.
> >> It was your "last chance" to buy. ^^_^^ But, about 9:45, the
> DT> market
> >> reversed and we were quickly down to 11,140. No huge surprise to
> >> those who were paying full attention.
> >>
> >> Amazingly, sentiment is so one-way here right now that this first
> >> plunge apparently didn't scare anyone. Okay, so the first plunge
> >> *always* gets a bit of a bounce. But in the PM session, we
waited at
> >> 11,170 . . . no buyers. We waited at 11,130 . . . no buyers. We
> >> waited at 11,000 . . . no buyers.
> >>
> >> So, we have technical damage here, for sure. DT, I am still
sure
> DT> you
> >> are wrong about 10,900 being resistance. Clearly, the level is
> >> higher. But, we apparently need to test something lower before
we
> >> can go higher, which does not surprise me at all. One-way
sentiment
> >> is a killer. So, the question is . . . where is the support line?
> >> Could it be 10,900?
> >>
> >> I don't know where we will close (in 20 min.) but it won't be
where
> >> the morning traders will be happy.
> >>
> >> (It was a great morning to liquidate into strength.) ^_^
> >>
> >> Yuki
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