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Hi DIMITRIS,
Could be a heck of a dog fight. We were slapped hard right spot on
the 200-day. This is the third flirtation with this level in the
past few months, and the other times it looked like we mounted it
successfully before giving it right back up.
Fifty day and 200-day both virtually flat here, with about a 200
point spread, give or take. It could be a war. OTOH, we (planet
earth) are so flush with liquidity still that I suspect we have more
upside room. Interesting negative cross between Steve's 144 and the
200 this week, the first cross since last August. But I don't think
this is the end of the trend. Nasty to see institutions fail at the
200 however. But did they?
Huge volume again in banks and brokers, but especially banks. We are
talking 700 million to 1.5 billion dollar plays, almost entirely on
the long side, this going on for several days now. This is not Dick
and Jane Suzuki tapping out orders at home. (Ichiro Suzuki, maybe.)
^^_^^ But this continued for some time *in the face* of a significant
futures failure today. It was only *very* late that, convinced the
futures would not bounce today, institutions simply stopped
supporting the bids. Want to bet they won't be back quickly on any
weakness? And these issues represent the core of the market. They
(the major banks) still hold a ton of stock in the rest of the
market. One cannot bid up their shares without thinking the rest of
the market is undervalued as well. (I'm talking about painting the
tape again and again with 2000 or 3000 share blocks of
5000-dollar-and-higher stocks at a crack, which has been going on all
this week. This is *not* retail trade, to be sure.)
Maybe some churning here, but if we take out the 200 now, it may be a
while before we'll see it again. I could see 2 to 4 weeks of fairly
good strength here before a serious pullback.
As for today, you mentioned the "positive" US session. I saw it as a
canary in the coal mine. So over bought near term, and even though
we are significantly less over bought, everyone here realizes the US
could correct sharply for 3 to 5 days or so, and no one is too eager
to run a long play into that kind of potential. They gave a lot back
in the US last night, and as I mentioned in the case of ^225 futures,
about all of it.
Remember, they want to shake every long out that they possibly can
before climbing over the 200 for a run. That may be what we are
seeing here. Any notion that the big players want us attending the
party is pure fantasy. ^_^ They want us showing up significantly
late, ready to absorb some of their profit taking.
Or so it appears from over here.
Yuki
Thursday, November 18, 2004, 5:00:35 PM, you wrote:
DT> Where the support is.
DT> a. Price trendlines : Unfortunately they are ambiguous since they
DT> diverge. The resistance slope [defined by Sept8-Oct7 peaks] is 2.76,
DT> the support slope [defined by Sept28-Oct25 troughs] is -9.031.
DT> The support trendline was pointing 10,421 after todays close.
DT> This support will be valid until a new trough appears.
DT> Will it be higher than Oct25 Low ? [10,575]
DT> Will it be lower ?
DT> Who knows...
DT> The new peak, on the other side, will be [probably] the Nov16 high
DT> [11,268]
DT> There is no clear scenario, this session was rather confusing, you
DT> turned your face south and you didnt follow the positive US session...
DT> b. The [recently posted] RSIc trendlines
DT> //The RSIc trendlines
DT> procedure RSIc(n)
DT> {
DT> C=RSIa(C,n);
DT> O=RSIa(O,n);
DT> H=RSIa(H,n);
DT> H=IIf(H<Max(C,O),Max(C,O),H);
DT> L=RSIa(L,n);
L=IIf(L>>Min(C,O),Min(C,O),L);
DT> }
DT> n=Param("n",10,10,30,5);//RSI sensitivity
DT> RSIc(n);
DT> Plot(C,"RSIc",1,64);
DT> per = Param("per",10,3,20,1);//trendlines sensitivity
DT> x = Cum(1);s1=L;s11=H;
DT> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
DT> endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
DT> startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
DT> dtS =endt-startt;
DT> endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
DT> startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
DT> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
DT> trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
DT> Plot(IIf(x>startt-10,trendlineS,-1e10),"Support",colorYellow,1);
DT> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
DT> endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 ));
DT> startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
DT> firstt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 3 ));
DT> dtR =endt1-startt1;
DT> endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
DT> startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
DT> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;
DT> bR = endR;
DT> trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;
DT> Plot(IIf(x>startT1-10,trendlineR,-1e10),"Resistance",colorYellow,1);
DT> give a better short term idea : An almost parallel ASCENDING channel
DT> with lower limit at 47. The support line is increasing by 0.9/bar,
DT> tomorrow it will be 47.92. If you RevEng it you will have tomorrows
DT> support at 10,946.
DT> But, this RSIc channel is very short term and it is quite sensitive.
DT> [I will improve this code to give directly the expected Close range ]
DT> Dimitris
DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
>> I guess nobody over here pays attention to the CME ^225 futures.
>>
>> At least a lot of nobodies . . . but I do.
>>
>> Despite the pathetic close in Chicago, the bulls came snorting out
DT> of
>> the gate here, and they ran the futures to 11,250 in no short order.
>> It was your "last chance" to buy. ^^_^^ But, about 9:45, the
DT> market
>> reversed and we were quickly down to 11,140. No huge surprise to
>> those who were paying full attention.
>>
>> Amazingly, sentiment is so one-way here right now that this first
>> plunge apparently didn't scare anyone. Okay, so the first plunge
>> *always* gets a bit of a bounce. But in the PM session, we waited at
>> 11,170 . . . no buyers. We waited at 11,130 . . . no buyers. We
>> waited at 11,000 . . . no buyers.
>>
>> So, we have technical damage here, for sure. DT, I am still sure
DT> you
>> are wrong about 10,900 being resistance. Clearly, the level is
>> higher. But, we apparently need to test something lower before we
>> can go higher, which does not surprise me at all. One-way sentiment
>> is a killer. So, the question is . . . where is the support line?
>> Could it be 10,900?
>>
>> I don't know where we will close (in 20 min.) but it won't be where
>> the morning traders will be happy.
>>
>> (It was a great morning to liquidate into strength.) ^_^
>>
>> Yuki
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