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How about the ^N225 open on Monday ?
[technical or non technical opinions will be appreciated...]
Dimitris
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
>
> You may see the next bar S_R already placed in the
> http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/RSIc/
> folder.
> It is quite expressive for the short-term predictions.
> Dimitris
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi DIMITRIS,
> >
> > Could be a heck of a dog fight. We were slapped hard right spot
on
> > the 200-day. This is the third flirtation with this level in the
> > past few months, and the other times it looked like we mounted it
> > successfully before giving it right back up.
> >
> > Fifty day and 200-day both virtually flat here, with about a 200
> > point spread, give or take. It could be a war. OTOH, we (planet
> > earth) are so flush with liquidity still that I suspect we have
more
> > upside room. Interesting negative cross between Steve's 144 and
the
> > 200 this week, the first cross since last August. But I don't
think
> > this is the end of the trend. Nasty to see institutions fail at
the
> > 200 however. But did they?
> >
> > Huge volume again in banks and brokers, but especially banks. We
> are
> > talking 700 million to 1.5 billion dollar plays, almost entirely
on
> > the long side, this going on for several days now. This is not
Dick
> > and Jane Suzuki tapping out orders at home. (Ichiro Suzuki,
maybe.)
> > ^^_^^ But this continued for some time *in the face* of a
> significant
> > futures failure today. It was only *very* late that, convinced the
> > futures would not bounce today, institutions simply stopped
> > supporting the bids. Want to bet they won't be back quickly on any
> > weakness? And these issues represent the core of the market. They
> > (the major banks) still hold a ton of stock in the rest of the
> > market. One cannot bid up their shares without thinking the rest
of
> > the market is undervalued as well. (I'm talking about painting
the
> > tape again and again with 2000 or 3000 share blocks of
> > 5000-dollar-and-higher stocks at a crack, which has been going on
> all
> > this week. This is *not* retail trade, to be sure.)
> >
> > Maybe some churning here, but if we take out the 200 now, it may
be
> a
> > while before we'll see it again. I could see 2 to 4 weeks of
fairly
> > good strength here before a serious pullback.
> >
> > As for today, you mentioned the "positive" US session. I saw it
as
> a
> > canary in the coal mine. So over bought near term, and even
though
> > we are significantly less over bought, everyone here realizes the
US
> > could correct sharply for 3 to 5 days or so, and no one is too
eager
> > to run a long play into that kind of potential. They gave a lot
> back
> > in the US last night, and as I mentioned in the case of ^225
> futures,
> > about all of it.
> >
> > Remember, they want to shake every long out that they possibly can
> > before climbing over the 200 for a run. That may be what we are
> > seeing here. Any notion that the big players want us attending
the
> > party is pure fantasy. ^_^ They want us showing up significantly
> > late, ready to absorb some of their profit taking.
> >
> > Or so it appears from over here.
> >
> > Yuki
> >
> > Thursday, November 18, 2004, 5:00:35 PM, you wrote:
> >
> > DT> Where the support is.
> > DT> a. Price trendlines : Unfortunately they are ambiguous since
> they
> > DT> diverge. The resistance slope [defined by Sept8-Oct7 peaks]
is
> 2.76,
> > DT> the support slope [defined by Sept28-Oct25 troughs] is -9.031.
> > DT> The support trendline was pointing 10,421 after todays close.
> > DT> This support will be valid until a new trough appears.
> > DT> Will it be higher than Oct25 Low ? [10,575]
> > DT> Will it be lower ?
> > DT> Who knows...
> > DT> The new peak, on the other side, will be [probably] the Nov16
> high
> > DT> [11,268]
> > DT> There is no clear scenario, this session was rather
confusing,
> you
> > DT> turned your face south and you didnt follow the positive US
> session...
> > DT> b. The [recently posted] RSIc trendlines
> >
> > DT> //The RSIc trendlines
> > DT> procedure RSIc(n)
> > DT> {
> > DT> C=RSIa(C,n);
> > DT> O=RSIa(O,n);
> > DT> H=RSIa(H,n);
> > DT> H=IIf(H<Max(C,O),Max(C,O),H);
> > DT> L=RSIa(L,n);
> > L=IIf(L>>Min(C,O),Min(C,O),L);
> > DT> }
> > DT> n=Param("n",10,10,30,5);//RSI sensitivity
> > DT> RSIc(n);
> > DT> Plot(C,"RSIc",1,64);
> > DT> per = Param("per",10,3,20,1);//trendlines sensitivity
> > DT> x = Cum(1);s1=L;s11=H;
> > DT> pS = TroughBars( s1, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > DT> endt= LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 1 ));
> > DT> startt=LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, x, 2 ));
> > DT> dtS =endt-startt;
> > DT> endS = LastValue(ValueWhen( pS, s1, 1 ) );
> > DT> startS = LastValue( ValueWhen( pS, s1, 2 ));
> > DT> aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
> > DT> trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
> > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startt-10,trendlineS,-
1e10),"Support",colorYellow,1);
> > DT> pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
> > DT> endt1= LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 1 ));
> > DT> startt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 2 ));
> > DT> firstt1=LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, 3 ));
> > DT> dtR =endt1-startt1;
> > DT> endR = LastValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, 1 ) );
> > DT> startR = LastValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, 2 ));
> > DT> aR = (endR-startR)/dtR;
> > DT> bR = endR;
> > DT> trendlineR = aR * ( x -endt1 ) + bR;
> > DT> Plot(IIf(x>startT1-10,trendlineR,-
> 1e10),"Resistance",colorYellow,1);
> >
> > DT> give a better short term idea : An almost parallel ASCENDING
> channel
> > DT> with lower limit at 47. The support line is increasing by
> 0.9/bar,
> > DT> tomorrow it will be 47.92. If you RevEng it you will have
> tomorrows
> > DT> support at 10,946.
> > DT> But, this RSIc channel is very short term and it is quite
> sensitive.
> > DT> [I will improve this code to give directly the expected Close
> range ]
> >
> > DT> Dimitris
> > DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > >> I guess nobody over here pays attention to the CME ^225
futures.
> > >>
> > >> At least a lot of nobodies . . . but I do.
> > >>
> > >> Despite the pathetic close in Chicago, the bulls came snorting
> out
> > DT> of
> > >> the gate here, and they ran the futures to 11,250 in no short
> order.
> > >> It was your "last chance" to buy. ^^_^^ But, about 9:45, the
> > DT> market
> > >> reversed and we were quickly down to 11,140. No huge surprise
to
> > >> those who were paying full attention.
> > >>
> > >> Amazingly, sentiment is so one-way here right now that this
first
> > >> plunge apparently didn't scare anyone. Okay, so the first
plunge
> > >> *always* gets a bit of a bounce. But in the PM session, we
> waited at
> > >> 11,170 . . . no buyers. We waited at 11,130 . . . no buyers.
We
> > >> waited at 11,000 . . . no buyers.
> > >>
> > >> So, we have technical damage here, for sure. DT, I am still
> sure
> > DT> you
> > >> are wrong about 10,900 being resistance. Clearly, the level is
> > >> higher. But, we apparently need to test something lower
before
> we
> > >> can go higher, which does not surprise me at all. One-way
> sentiment
> > >> is a killer. So, the question is . . . where is the support
line?
> > >> Could it be 10,900?
> > >>
> > >> I don't know where we will close (in 20 min.) but it won't be
> where
> > >> the morning traders will be happy.
> > >>
> > >> (It was a great morning to liquidate into strength.) ^_^
> > >>
> > >> Yuki
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