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<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Ken Close
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, June 12, 2004 5:12
PM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Fib
solutions vs the tough market decisions
The Dynamic Trader program will also allow you to plot/extend fib
timeratios (something I asked TJ for over two years ago---but I am not
soanxious anymore). With this, you can plot various fib
retracementratios from various pivot points in the past. You can
superimpose fibtime ratios. This allows you to draw a "box" (price
retracement levelsform horizontal parts of the box, while time ratios form
the verticalsides of the box) which is supposed to represent a very high
probability"zone" (time and price) for a tradeable reversal.
Wavemechanic hereuses DT (I believe) and perhaps could comment.
Yes, DT will handle all Fibonacci
stuff.
After all that, I
agree with a hesitation, and do not know how toconsistently make these
kinds of trades. Others, however, can and do.Have a nice
day.KenPS: I imagine your creative programming talents still
do not enable youto program fib time lines.....?????
:-(-----Original Message-----From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Saturday, June 12, 2004 2:18 PMTo:
<A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
[amibroker] Re: Fib solutions vs the tough market decisionsKen,I
didn't explain the usual Fib pattern since it is easily available.The
question is the same : Why not 0.382, why not 0.500, why yes the 0.618. If
you have already two Long positions at 0.382 AND 0.50, would you keep on
buying the 0.618 ? The bad news is that there is NO priority rule, all
levels are equally probable [this is the wrong use of the statistics,
0.382 WAS perfect 3 months ago but 1.61 WAS true gold 9 months ago etc
etc].Note also that we speak for emotional trading in front of 0.618 [with
0.382 AND 0.50 already false]. Is this 0.618 the only emotional factor
this specific day? Certainly not. Some INTC would announce results
[loosing -2.5% one h before the announcement...], some OPEC meeting is
ready to decide, your cash flow is not in the best condition etc. I hope
you know the situation and you will probably agree with my
hesitations.Dimitris Tsokakis--- In <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ken
Close" <closeks@x...> wrote:>
Dimitris:> > > > Hello: thanks for
this unique code, innovative and interesting as is> most of your
postings.> > > > I am not criticizing your
observations but I would make my own> observation that the reversal at
D in your diagram is almost exactly at> the 0.618 retracement of
the STRAIGHT support fib lines drawn from a> bottom at you're a to the
top at C. This does not in any way invalidate> your
observations, and I myself would not make a buy on the day a bar>
hits one of the fib ratios, but would it be possibly true that hitting
a> more traditional "STRAIGHT" support fib retracement ratio could
be> considered a SETUP and then if the next x bars (say three) are up,
or a> very short EMA of price turns up, then that could be
confirmation and> one could enter then with more confidence??
Is it not a possibility?> Further, the weekly chart shows that the
very same low is 38.2% fib> retracement from the low on 5/2/2003 to the
same "C" top on 4/15/2004.> I believe it is "common" knowledge
among those who use these setups that> the probabilities are higher
when different time frame reversals occur> at common fib
retracement levels.> > > > Thanks again for
your innovative coding.> > > > Ken>
> > > -----Original Message-----> From:
Dimitris Tsokakis [mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxx] > Sent: Saturday, June 12,
2004 11:58 AM> To: <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [amibroker] Fib solutions vs the tough market decisions>
> > > Many [and potential] foreign traders
preferred the TokyoSE the last> months.> > After a
prolonged uptrend, the big boys [not the crowd !!] decided to>
apply severe pressure [C]> > The index was loosing -2% or -3% or
-5% without any serious resistance.> > The tough question
was the magnitude of the correction.> > Fibonacci buyers failed
at all known levels.> > Although my innovative research was not
posted this period, Oblique Fib> traders would also fail >
> to catch the proper Buy level.> > This failure sounds
somehow descriptive now but it could cost a lot of> money,
because> > 1. 0.382 [negative]> > 2. 0.500
[negative again]> > 3. 0.618 [the great secret for many silent
traders, but, negative again]> > 4. 0.786 [many traders
leave "the others" buy at 0.618 and come and buy> everything at the
tricky 0.786 but, the market is negative again]> > 5. 1.000
[Well, there is no doubt we still have a bullish environment,> the
market will react at this level, but, negative again]> > 6.
1.618[the situation is serious now, buy at this level is
equivalent> to a bank guarantee etc etc]> > This is
the most tragic case, IMO. These buyers still wait, the market>
ignored their intension, the market> > was not interested for
the color of their money, if they still want to> buy let us take
now a +2% and a +2.4% > > and, if they forget these Fib stories,
let them buy +5% higher. If they> do not agree, they will pay
another +5%> > 3 days later, it is a free market, they may buy
whenever they want !!> > Since it is a real story and
not a trade-fiction, I think I will never> place an order at any
Fib level, horizontal> > or [the new] oblique.> >
Dimitris Tsokakis> > > > >
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