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USdingo <dingo@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
what country are you in?
d
From: Jason Hart [mailto:jhart_1972@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 10:48 AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
Herman -
Re embarrassed using the word "invest" heheh. One thing I never see is managing the tax implications of ST trading. How do people here deal with it - are certain measures, practices used to try and minimize taxes or is this another one of those "cost of doing business" items.
JasonHerman van den Bergen <psytek@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
Thank you Pal,
interesting comments and URLs. Reading some of the text I feel even more strongly that whatever MM you use is very much dictated by the type of trading system you use. Some of the articles still seem to talk about "investing", I am embarrassed to even use that word among my friends ;-)
However i agree that some parts of MM are universal and make common sense. Nevertheless I think that for short term trading (0-3 days) market volatility and descretionary moves wipes out most of the multi-digit precision/siginficance of MM; you have to develop your own and very personal MM. There is no ready plan you can adopt.
take care,
h
-----Original Message-----From: Pal Anand [mailto:palsanand@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 4:23 AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
Hi Herman,--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen" <psytek@xxxx> wrote:> Some time ago we had lengthy discussions on Von Tharp's theories. I read all of your past posts regarding Money Management, your discussions with William Wong, Al, Ara, Ken etc., Thanks for posting the results of your tests and links for the Money Management. I am yet to fully read them all. , particularly http://keplerweb.oeh.uni-linz.ac.at/trading/moneyMan.htmIf i> recall correctly he treats the market like a Random phenomena and bases all> his statistical analysis on that. This is completely contradictory to those> of us who design mechanical trading systems that give 60-75% winning trades,> have well distributed and defined losing and winning streaks, and have> profit as well as stop
control measures in place.I agree. Also, Tharp says: People are always looking for the "real" secrets of trading success, but their mental biases always have them looking in the wrong places and at the wrong things. Consequently, they search for magical trading systems with 75% accuracy or better or for great entry systems that they think will help them pick the right stock. Picking the right stock has nothing to do with success and neither does the accuracy of your stock picking.I strongly disagre with the above statement. Half of investing/trading is knowing what and when to trade. The other half is knowing what amount to risk. His statements are due to a strong belief in the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH).http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?id=2623<A
href="">http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?id=2883> > At the time of the thread i bought and read his book "Trade your way to> finacial freedom". It was fun reading however I proved a number of his> assumptions wrong 'for my trading systems'; my systems are definitely not> random. Testing several systems over 280,000 bars, with average trade> durations from 2-10 bars his predictions for winning and losing streaks for> example was way off. If you are interested you may search the archives, i> posted some of my code used to analyze systems, as well as results complete> with charts on this list.> > Far too little time is spend on system analysis, way too much time goes into> driving profits up by optimization. All systems are different; analyze your> own systems, do not believe that anybody else can tell you have
they behave> under various market conditions.> Part of exploiting and maximizing a trading systems potential is knowing how to risk our money. A well thought out system should have the entry and exit point fixed before the trade is entered. The difference is your risk. The money management discussion "how many" is then based on your total account size, %Risk/Trade, Entry and Exit points. MM has everything to do with Entries and Exits (Stops), because one needs to use these entry and exit stops your system and the market specifies in order to determine the "how many". This is one of the great secrets. This goes contradictory to the game's philosophy which treats entries and setups as false control illusions. It is true that while we are searching for a Holy grail system spending endless time there, position sizing might offer a much easier path because it optimizes
expectancy while controls the risk of your choice, you know you can live long enough to earn your expectancy returns.I agree with Edward O. Thorp who says: The central problem for gamblers is to find positive expectation bets. But the gambler also needs to know how to manage his money,i.e. how much to bet. In the stock market (more inclusively, the securities markets) the problem is similar but more complex. The gambler, who is now an investor, looks for excess risk adjusted return. In both these settings, we explore the use of the Kelly criterion, which is to maximize the expected value of the logarithm of wealth (maximize expected logarithmic utility). The criterion is known to economists and financial theorists by names such as the geometric mean maximizing portfolio strategy, maximizing logarithmic utility, the growth-optimal strategy, the capital growth criterion, etc.MM is an integral part of the
basic system design and the goal of your system should be to bet the optimum amount, where the risk/reward ratio of your system is the best it can be, i.e., it maximizes expectancy within levels of risk that are acceptable. If you have an edge over this game, then you should take advantage of it, but do it with the track's money by using a small initial bankroll, i.e, an Anti-Martingale system unless one is day-trading. But, in order to apply MM effectively, trader's needs to have a defined system for entering and exiting the market with a historical and accurate profit and loss record. Having a well tested trading system helps insure that traders get consistent trading results from future trades, within normal statistical boundaries. It is understanding these statistical boundaries that represents a large aspect of managing an account both effectively and efficiently. The main way traders learn to understand
these statistical boundaries is to have a sufficient sample of tested trades.> bets regards,> herman.rgds, Pal> -----Original Message-----> From: Pal Anand [mailto:palsanand@xxxx]> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:34 PM> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please> > > I downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and played with> it. The first 2 levels are a piece of cake. The 3rd level is> difficult, but in only 3 trials out of 75 I finished it. I think I> have unlocked the secret code for the right combination of the Risk> ($ per Share) and Investment level (# Shares to buy.) This is no> mean feat. There is only one combination which
is optimum. Find> this combination and I would acknowledge that you are a Master and> you dont need to spend on anything else. Here are the instructions> to download and for the game:> > http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm> > Position Sizing: The Secrets> of the Masters Trading Game> Instructions for Level Three> > This level is similar to level one. You are given a trading system> that goes long in the market. Your only choice is to decide how> much to risk for each trade. That's it! You simply decide how much> to risk. Overall, level two is an even better system than level one> gave you.
Over many trials, your expectancy will be 0.91 as> compared with 0.45 for the first level.> > Now that you've reached this level, we recommend that you begin by> saving the game. If you should go bankrupt, you will have to start> again at the beginning of the game if you don't have a saved game at> this level. However, we hope you can get through the game without> going bankrupt.> > Once again, you will have the opportunity to make 75 trades. Your> minimum goal is to make a profit of 50% by the end of the 75 trades> so that you can advance to level four. However, you will> automatically advance to level three should you increase your equity> by 500% from the starting value.> > If you
have not made a profit at the end of 75 trades, you will need> to start this level over again. However, if you have made a profit> that's less than 50%, you will then have another 25 trades to reach> your goal of 50% to advance to the next level.> > If you have a loss at the end of 75 trades, you will have to start> the level over again with a 10% penalty (subtracted from your prior> starting equity).> > The probabilities and payoffs for this level are given in the> statistics section of the game (in the View menu.) We'd suggest> that you study them carefully and develop a strategy before you> begin the game.> > Level Three> > > Questions & Answers> >
Question:> Why am I not allowed to go short? I would be right 70% of the> time. Isn't that what it's all about?> > Response:> Hopefully you'll step out of the box of needing to be right by> playing this game. You should be learning the importance of large R-> multiples over being right. Wait until you get a 30R or 20R trade> in your favor and see what that does for your account. Or would you> rather have that against you? If being right is that important to> you, you'll have your chance to go against the expectancy in level> five.> > Question:> What's a good strategy to play this game?> > Response:> Figuring out a good strategy and learning from
your mistakes is one> of the skill requirements of this game. What is your worst-case> loss? It's four percent, so you'll risk bankruptcy by risking over> 25% on any trade. Also think about how many losses you could have> in a row. You're only right 30% of the time. It's very likely that> you might have 9 losses in a row in your 75 trades. You might even> have a streak of losses as big as 20 or more. You need to play to> survive that you that you can make money on the 30R trades that> might come up. With those two guidelines, design your own strategy.> > IITM also sells products designed to help you with strategy> development. These include 1) the money management report; 2) a> newsletter
issue devoted to optimal bet size; and 3) optimal bet> size software that will be available for purchase in mid-2002.> > Question:> Once again, I don't have much information on any of these> investments or trades. How am I to know which one's will go up?> > Response:> You don't know what will go up, that's true. But you do know the> payoffs and probabilities of the system you will be trading. That's> all you need to know to figure out to work out bet sizing> strategies. Those strategies are the key to success and this game> is designed to get you away from predicting the market and into> thinking about those strategies.> > rgds, Pal> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"relentless1000" <cgmv@xxxx> wrote:> > I purchased the "Developing a winning trading system that fits> you"> > audio tape course back in December 03 (got it on sale for $699).> > Just as I've found with other books and courses its not a> blueprint> > for making a fortune, but I did come away learning a handful of> > helpful things.> >> > I found it a little pricey since it is an audio taped seminar.> The> > advertising for it says it's profesionally edited. I found the> > recording to be of less quality than I expected. Several times> > through the 12 tapes people in the seminar ask questions or make> > comments that you cannot hear well, sometimes even the
instructors> > cannot be heard for short periods until the microphone picks them> > up. Not a major problem but for ~ $ 700+, I expect a little> better> > job than this.> >> > The content is organized well and pretty informative, altough I> think> > for much less money you could buy some books and get pretty much> the> > same info. I think if you studied Van's book "Trade your way to> > Financial Freedom" and Charles LeBeau's book "Computer Analysis of> > the Futures Market" (Charles was a major part of the audio taped> > course, I found his input very helpful) you'd get a majority of> the> > technical content.>
>> > Good Luck> >> > GV> >> >> >> >> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa" <advenosa@xxxx>> wrote:> > > All of his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak performance> > course, but I know someone who did. He learned a lot about himself> > when he went through it, but I don't think he is using much of it> > today. Just like anything else. I don't think you are using much> of> > the stuff you learned in college today, either, but it was good> > training. You pays your money and you takes your chances, so goes> the> > cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about
his course> > offerings?> > >> > > Al V.> > > ----- Original Message -----> > > From: Greg> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM> > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses please> > >> > >> > > Al and Phil,> > >> > > Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps' courses. I was> wondering> > if you know anything about his Peak Performance Course for> Investors> > and Traders. It looks interesting, although a little pricey. I>
know> > of people paying much more for a personal adviser that works with> > them on some of the areas that Tharp deals with, such as making a> > business plan. Seems like Tharp goes into areas that will> > psychologically prepare you for trading. I guess I'll have to read> > through the description of the course more thoroughly and then> decide> > if I it would be worthwhile for me.> > >> > > Thanks again for your comments,> > >> > > Greg> > > ----- Original Message -----> > > From: Al Venosa> > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41 AM> > > Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses please> > >> > >> > > Hi, Greg:> > >> > > I took Van's Advanced Stock Market course about 2.5 years> ago.> > Don't even know if he still offers it. Although I enjoyed it> > immensely, especially all the money management material, the main> > lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of sorts. Since I'm> more> > of a mechanical trading system type of person, I didn't get that> much> > out of his presentations because a lot of that sort of
trading> > philosophy is discretionary, or at least subjective judgment. If> > that's your thing, then you will likely get a lot more out of it> than> > I did. But I thought the money management stuff was very> worthwhile.> > For about $80, you could buy Van's Report on Money Management plus> > his book "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" and learn all you> need> > about money management for a fraction of the price of his course,> > IMO.> > >> > > Regards,> > >> > > Al Venosa> > > ----- Original Message -----> >
> From: Greg> > > To: AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx> > > Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:18 AM> > > Subject: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses please> > >> > >> > > Hi,> > >> > > I was wondering if anyone here has taken any of the> courses> > offered by Van Tharp. If so could you please comment on there> > helpfulness.> > >> > > Thanks,> > >
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