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<FONT face=Arial
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<FONT face=Arial
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From: Jason Hart [mailto:jhart_1972@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 10:48 AMTo:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Comments on
Van Tharp courses please
Herman -
Re embarrassed using the word "invest" heheh. One thing I never see
is managing the tax implications of ST trading. How do people here deal
with it - are certain measures, practices used to try and minimize taxes or is
this another one of those "cost of doing business" items.
JasonHerman van den Bergen <psytek@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE class=replbq
>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Thank you Pal,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>interesting comments and URLs. Reading some of the text I feel even
more strongly that whatever MM you use is very much dictated by the type of
trading system you use. Some of the articles still seem to talk about
"investing", I am embarrassed to even use that word among my friends
;-)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>However i agree that some parts of MM are universal and make common
sense. Nevertheless I think that for short term trading (0-3
days) market volatility and descretionary moves wipes out most of
the multi-digit precision/siginficance of MM; you have to develop
your own and very personal MM. There is no ready plan you can
adopt.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>take care,
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>h
<FONT
size=2><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff>
<SPAN
class=718051515-08032004> -----Original
Message-----From: Pal Anand
[mailto:palsanand@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 4:23
AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker]
Re: Comments on Van Tharp courses please
Hi Herman,--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"Herman van den Bergen" <psytek@xxxx> wrote:> Some time
ago we had lengthy discussions on Von Tharp's theories. I read all
of your past posts regarding Money Management, your discussions with
William Wong, Al, Ara, Ken etc., Thanks for posting the results
of your tests and links for the Money Management. I am yet to
fully read them all. , particularly <A
href="">http://keplerweb.oeh.uni-linz.ac.at/trading/moneyMan.htmIf
i> recall correctly he treats the market like a Random phenomena
and bases all> his statistical analysis on that. This is
completely contradictory to those> of us who design mechanical
trading systems that give 60-75% winning trades,> have well
distributed and defined losing and winning streaks, and have>
profit as well as stop control measures in place.I agree.
Also, Tharp says: People are always looking for the "real"
secrets of trading success, but their mental biases always have them
looking in the wrong places and at the wrong things.
Consequently, they search for magical trading systems with 75%
accuracy or better or for great entry systems that they think will
help them pick the right stock. Picking the right stock has
nothing to do with success and neither does the accuracy of your
stock picking.I strongly disagre with the above
statement. Half of investing/trading is knowing what and when to
trade. The other half is knowing what amount to risk. His statements
are due to a strong belief in the Efficient Market Hypothesis
(EMH).<A
href="">http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?id=2623<A
href="">http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?id=2883>
> At the time of the thread i bought and read his book "Trade your
way to> finacial freedom". It was fun reading however I proved
a number of his> assumptions wrong 'for my trading systems'; my
systems are definitely not> random. Testing several systems
over 280,000 bars, with average trade> durations from 2-10 bars
his predictions for winning and losing streaks for> example was
way off. If you are interested you may search the archives, i>
posted some of my code used to analyze systems, as well as results
complete> with charts on this list.> > Far too
little time is spend on system analysis, way too much time goes
into> driving profits up by optimization. All systems are
different; analyze your> own systems, do not believe that
anybody else can tell you have they behave> under various
market conditions.> Part of exploiting and maximizing a
trading systems potential is knowing how to risk our money. A
well thought out system should have the entry and exit point fixed
before the trade is entered. The difference is your risk. The money
management discussion "how many" is then based on your total account
size, %Risk/Trade, Entry and Exit points. MM has everything to
do with Entries and Exits (Stops), because one needs to use these
entry and exit stops your system and the market specifies in order to
determine the "how many". This is one of the great
secrets. This goes contradictory to the game's philosophy which
treats entries and setups as false control illusions. It
is true that while we are searching for a Holy grail system spending
endless time there, position sizing might offer a much easier path
because it optimizes expectancy while controls the risk of your
choice, you know you can live long enough to earn your expectancy
returns.I agree with Edward O. Thorp who says: The central
problem for gamblers is to find positive expectation bets. But the
gambler also needs to know how to manage his money,i.e. how much to
bet. In the stock market (more inclusively, the securities markets)
the problem is similar but more complex. The gambler, who is now an
investor, looks for excess risk adjusted return. In both these
settings, we explore the use of the Kelly criterion, which is to
maximize the expected value of the logarithm of wealth (maximize
expected logarithmic utility). The criterion is known to
economists and financial theorists by names such as the geometric mean
maximizing portfolio strategy, maximizing logarithmic utility, the
growth-optimal strategy, the capital growth criterion, etc.MM
is an integral part of the basic system design and the goal of your
system should be to bet the optimum amount, where the risk/reward
ratio of your system is the best it can be, i.e., it maximizes
expectancy within levels of risk that are acceptable. If you
have an edge over this game, then you should take advantage of it, but
do it with the track's money by using a small initial bankroll, i.e,
an Anti-Martingale system unless one is day-trading. But, in
order to apply MM effectively, trader's needs to have a defined system
for entering and exiting the market with a historical and accurate
profit and loss record. Having a well tested trading system
helps insure that traders get consistent trading results from future
trades, within normal statistical boundaries. It is understanding
these statistical boundaries that represents a large aspect of
managing an account both effectively and efficiently. The main way
traders learn to understand these statistical boundaries is to have a
sufficient sample of tested trades.> bets regards,>
herman.rgds, Pal> -----Original
Message-----> From: Pal Anand
[mailto:palsanand@xxxx]> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004
4:34 PM> To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: [amibroker] Re:
Comments on Van Tharp courses please> > >
I downloaded the free "Secrets of the Masters Game" and played
with> it. The first 2 levels are a piece of
cake. The 3rd level is> difficult, but in only 3
trials out of 75 I finished it. I think I>
have unlocked the secret code for the right combination of the
Risk> ($ per Share) and Investment level (# Shares
to buy.) This is no> mean feat. There is
only one combination which is optimum. Find> this
combination and I would acknowledge that you are a Master
and> you dont need to spend on anything else.
Here are the instructions> to download and for the
game:> > <A
href="">http://www.iitm.com./_vti_bin/shtml.dll/regform.htm>
> Position Sizing: The Secrets> of
the Masters Trading Game> Instructions for Level
Three> > This level is similar to level
one. You are given a trading system> that
goes long in the market. Your only choice is to decide
how> much to risk for each trade. That's
it! You simply decide how much> to
risk. Overall, level two is an even better system than level
one> gave you. Over many trials, your
expectancy will be 0.91 as> compared with 0.45 for the
first level.> > Now that you've reached this
level, we recommend that you begin by> saving the
game. If you should go bankrupt, you will have to
start> again at the beginning of the game if you
don't have a saved game at> this level.
However, we hope you can get through the game
without> going bankrupt.>
> Once again, you will have the opportunity to make 75
trades. Your> minimum goal is to make a
profit of 50% by the end of the 75 trades> so that
you can advance to level four. However, you will>
automatically advance to level three should you increase your
equity> by 500% from the starting value.>
> If you have not made a profit at the end of 75
trades, you will need> to start this level over
again. However, if you have made a profit>
that's less than 50%, you will then have another 25 trades to
reach> your goal of 50% to advance to the next
level.> > If you have a loss at the end of 75
trades, you will have to start> the level over
again with a 10% penalty (subtracted from your
prior> starting equity).>
> The probabilities and payoffs for this level are
given in the> statistics section of the game (in the
View menu.) We'd suggest> that you study them
carefully and develop a strategy before you> begin the
game.> > Level Three> >
> Questions & Answers> >
Question:> Why am I not allowed to go short? I
would be right 70% of the> time. Isn't that what
it's all about?> > Response:>
Hopefully you'll step out of the box of needing to be right
by> playing this game. You should be learning the
importance of large R-> multiples over being
right. Wait until you get a 30R or 20R trade>
in your favor and see what that does for your account. Or would
you> rather have that against you? If being
right is that important to> you, you'll have your
chance to go against the expectancy in level>
five.> > Question:> What's a
good strategy to play this game?> >
Response:> Figuring out a good strategy and learning
from your mistakes is one> of the skill
requirements of this game. What is your
worst-case> loss? It's four percent, so you'll
risk bankruptcy by risking over> 25% on any
trade. Also think about how many losses you could
have> in a row. You're only right 30% of the
time. It's very likely that> you might have 9
losses in a row in your 75 trades. You might
even> have a streak of losses as big as 20 or
more. You need to play to> survive that you
that you can make money on the 30R trades that> might
come up. With those two guidelines, design your own
strategy.> > IITM also sells products
designed to help you with strategy> development.
These include 1) the money management report; 2) a>
newsletter issue devoted to optimal bet size; and 3) optimal
bet> size software that will be available for purchase
in mid-2002.> > Question:>
Once again, I don't have much information on any of
these> investments or trades. How am I to know
which one's will go up?> >
Response:> You don't know what will go up, that's
true. But you do know the> payoffs and
probabilities of the system you will be trading.
That's> all you need to know to figure out to work
out bet sizing> strategies. Those strategies are
the key to success and this game> is designed to
get you away from predicting the market and into>
thinking about those strategies.> > rgds,
Pal> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"relentless1000" <cgmv@xxxx> wrote:> > I
purchased the "Developing a winning trading system that
fits> you"> > audio tape course
back in December 03 (got it on sale for $699).>
> Just as I've found with other books and courses its not
a> blueprint> > for making a
fortune, but I did come away learning a handful of>
> helpful things.> >> > I
found it a little pricey since it is an audio taped
seminar.> The> > advertising for
it says it's profesionally edited. I found the>
> recording to be of less quality than I expected. Several
times> > through the 12 tapes people in the seminar
ask questions or make> > comments that you
cannot hear well, sometimes even the instructors>
> cannot be heard for short periods until the microphone picks
them> > up. Not a major problem but for ~
$ 700+, I expect a little> better>
> job than this.> >> > The
content is organized well and pretty informative, altough
I> think> > for much less money
you could buy some books and get pretty much>
the> > same info. I think if you studied Van's
book "Trade your way to> > Financial Freedom"
and Charles LeBeau's book "Computer Analysis of>
> the Futures Market" (Charles was a major part of the audio
taped> > course, I found his input very helpful)
you'd get a majority of> the> >
technical content.> >> > Good
Luck> >> >
GV> >> >>
>> >> > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Al Venosa"
<advenosa@xxxx>> wrote:> >
> All of his stuff is pricey. I never took his peak
performance> > course, but I know someone who did.
He learned a lot about himself> > when he went
through it, but I don't think he is using much of
it> > today. Just like anything else. I don't
think you are using much> of>
> the stuff you learned in college today, either, but it was
good> > training. You pays your money and you takes
your chances, so goes> the> >
cliche. Why don't you call Van and ask him about his
course> > offerings?> >
>> > > Al V.> >
> ----- Original Message -----> >
> From: Greg> > > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> > > Sent:
Saturday, March 06, 2004 10:56 AM> >
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
please> > >> >
>> > > Al and
Phil,> > >> >
> Thanks for your comments on Van Tharps' courses. I
was> wondering> > if you know
anything about his Peak Performance Course for>
Investors> > and Traders. It looks interesting,
although a little pricey. I> know>
> of people paying much more for a personal adviser that works
with> > them on some of the areas that Tharp
deals with, such as making a> > business plan.
Seems like Tharp goes into areas that will> >
psychologically prepare you for trading. I guess I'll have to
read> > through the description of the course
more thoroughly and then> decide>
> if I it would be worthwhile for me.> >
>> > > Thanks again for your
comments,> > >> >
> Greg> >
> ----- Original Message
-----> > > From: Al
Venosa> > > To:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 11:41
AM> > > Subject: Re:
[amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses please>
> >> > >> >
> Hi, Greg:> >
>> > > I took Van's
Advanced Stock Market course about 2.5 years>
ago.> > Don't even know if he still offers it.
Although I enjoyed it> > immensely, especially all
the money management material, the main> >
lecturer, Dennis Ullom, was a CANSLIM trader of sorts. Since
I'm> more> > of a mechanical
trading system type of person, I didn't get that>
much> > out of his presentations because a lot of
that sort of trading> > philosophy is discretionary,
or at least subjective judgment. If> > that's
your thing, then you will likely get a lot more out of
it> than> > I did. But I
thought the money management stuff was very>
worthwhile.> > For about $80, you could buy Van's
Report on Money Management plus> > his book
"Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" and learn all
you> need> > about money
management for a fraction of the price of his
course,> > IMO.> >
>> > >
Regards,> > >> >
> Al Venosa> >
> ----- Original Message
-----> > >
From: Greg> >
> To:
AmiBroker@xxxxxxxxxxx> >
> Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004
10:18 AM> > >
Subject: [amibroker] Comments on Van Tharp courses
please> > >> >
>> > >
Hi,> > >> >
> I was wondering if anyone here
has taken any of the> courses> >
offered by Van Tharp. If so could you please comment on
there> > helpfulness.> >
>> > >
Thanks,> >
> Greg>
> >> > >> >
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