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Hi wavemechanic,
Monday, November 17, 2003, 9:42:22 PM, you wrote:
w> Exactly, Yuki. And in this case, proper consideration of volume
w> is essential. A number of commercial and "home grown" programs
w> have tried to duplicate "eyeballing" patterns. Works sometimes
w> but "eyeballing" indicates that it misses or misidentifies at
w> other times. As a descretionary trader, such a program would be
w> the Holy Grail, and maybe someday it will be available. I suspect
w> by then, however, that I'll be rocking the days away and watching
w> sunsets.
I think DT knows how much I respect his coding ability -- and that is
not even comparing it with my own (almost non-existent) coding
ability. ^^_^^ He is great, and there is no doubt about it.
But like you say, I have grave doubts about the ability of anyone to
code these formations in a way that is going to be very useful to me.
Here we are talking about a H&S. This is usually somewhere near the
beginning of any book on TA formations. It's pretty basic. But even
this supposedly basic formation has so many possible variables that
it's doubtful to me that we all could agree on what exactly is a H&S,
and what isn't. Maybe I'm wrong, and we actually could agree. But
somebody is sure to complain about the relationship of the high of
the shoulders to the high of the head, or the slant, or the pullback
level, or the volume, or the number of bars, or something. TA by
committee is probably trades never taken. ^_^
I genuinely respect the attempt to code these things, but even the
reason for attempting to code them runs kind of counter to my method
of trading anyway. As many who have known me for years already know,
I trade the same stuff over and over and over. I have a basic basket
of stocks which right now numbers a whopping 19, and I know those
issues inside and out in terms of the way they trade. I just never
stray (I do some pair trading, too, but the pairs are in the 19), and
I'm convinced by my own experience that I don't need to trade outside
this small universe -- ever. (Once in a great while I can't resist a
fling outside that universe, but I almost always get my fingers
burned.) Over the years, my basket of stocks has never grown. It's
always become smaller and smaller. This type of coding is used I
guess to search a large database of stocks, one that is too large to
search manually. But I just don't trade outside of my little pond,
and I can examine all the fish in there every day. I do use
explorations to make life easier, but I also eyeball each chart every
night, and in a leisurely way, not in a rush of scrolling. I can
take the time to look at lots of different sheets for the same issue,
and I have the time to put some serious "A" into my "TA". I'm sure
this pays off for me, but I'm also sure others prosper just as well
with less of a concentrated focus. As you said, if anyone ever gets
this "eyeball" stuff down just right, it would be like the holy
grail. But I won't live to see it, I'm sure.
Best,
Yuki
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