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----- Original Message -----
From: "Yuki Taga" <<A
href=""><FONT
size=2>yukitaga@xxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT
size=2>>
To: "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <<A
href=""><FONT
size=2>amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT
size=2>>
Sent: Monday, November 17, 2003 6:00
AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: ^N225
patterns
> Hi DIMITRIS,> > T> What is a
H&S ? Is it an objective T/A formation [for all of us]> DT> or it
is what we see [in November] and we don´t see in January> DT>
????> > This is what it is for me: see png.> > This
looks really clear to me. Yes, I anticipated that *maybe* a> right
shoulder would set up. But both price and volume suggested to> me
that this was possible, as well as the other tools I noted. Now>
that it's completed, it sure looks easy to see, doesn't it? Or is
it> only me?> > I really don't think you can formula-ize
this. Maybe you can get> close, but there are so many possible
variations that I might agree> on, yet others that I would reject, that I
think the formula would be> either too restrictive or too
inclusive. AI just isn't that advanced> yet, and NO, this is
absolutely not objective, but yes, it is STILL> TA. ^^_^^ It's just
not mechanical trading system TA, but it is most> definitely 100 percent
true blue, government-certified TA, the kind> you can find in book upon
book, as you well know. Anticipation is a> valid component of TA,
IMHO. There are places where it can be very> dangerous, but it is
not always thus. Please remember: The "A" in> "TA" stands for
*analysis*. This means "reasoning and judgment" to> me. How about
to you?
Exactly, Yuki. And in this case,
proper consideration of volume is essential. A number of commercial and
"home grown" programs have tried to duplicate "eyeballing"
patterns. Works sometimes but "eyeballing" indicates that it misses
or misidentifies at other times. As a descretionary trader,
such a program would be the Holy Grail, and maybe someday it will be
available. I suspect by then, however, that I'll be rocking the days
away and watching sunsets.
> > Finally, and maybe this might
help you in your quantification quest:> I am not so much worried about
the period, as I am about the> percentage movements. You bet those
neckline pullbacks were brief (I> think this is where you are getting the
3 periods from?). But LOOK> at the ground that gets covered in
those 3 days -- TEN FULL PERCENT> DOWN, not once, but TWICE, in a single
one-month period. This is NOT> the signature of a happy market I'm
afraid. In fact, if I remember> correctly, the OEX was doing stuff like
this in the weeks and months> that ran up to the big bang in October of
'87. People marveled at how> "resilient" the market was. Suddenly, it was
anything but resilient.> This is not at all to suggest that a crash is
coming (although it> seems it might have, here, already) ^_^ but just to
strongly suggest> that to my eyes, this market experiencing some notable
distress.> > If the S&P dropped to 950 in the next three days,
then worked its way> back to 1050 in four weeks, then plunged again to
950 rather> suddenly, do you think anyone might think about going short
on the> next bounce? ^_-> > Yuki> Send BUG
REPORTS to <FONT
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SUGGESTIONS to <A
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