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T> What is a H&S ? Is it an objective T/A formation [for all of us]
DT> or it is what we see [in November] and we donīt see in January
DT> ????
This is what it is for me: see png.
This looks really clear to me. Yes, I anticipated that *maybe* a
right shoulder would set up. But both price and volume suggested to
me that this was possible, as well as the other tools I noted. Now
that it's completed, it sure looks easy to see, doesn't it? Or is it
only me?
I really don't think you can formula-ize this. Maybe you can get
close, but there are so many possible variations that I might agree
on, yet others that I would reject, that I think the formula would be
either too restrictive or too inclusive. AI just isn't that advanced
yet, and NO, this is absolutely not objective, but yes, it is STILL
TA. ^^_^^ It's just not mechanical trading system TA, but it is most
definitely 100 percent true blue, government-certified TA, the kind
you can find in book upon book, as you well know. Anticipation is a
valid component of TA, IMHO. There are places where it can be very
dangerous, but it is not always thus. Please remember: The "A" in
"TA" stands for *analysis*. This means "reasoning and judgment" to
me. How about to you?
Finally, and maybe this might help you in your quantification quest:
I am not so much worried about the period, as I am about the
percentage movements. You bet those neckline pullbacks were brief (I
think this is where you are getting the 3 periods from?). But LOOK
at the ground that gets covered in those 3 days -- TEN FULL PERCENT
DOWN, not once, but TWICE, in a single one-month period. This is NOT
the signature of a happy market I'm afraid. In fact, if I remember
correctly, the OEX was doing stuff like this in the weeks and months
that ran up to the big bang in October of '87. People marveled at how
"resilient" the market was. Suddenly, it was anything but resilient.
This is not at all to suggest that a crash is coming (although it
seems it might have, here, already) ^_^ but just to strongly suggest
that to my eyes, this market experiencing some notable distress.
If the S&P dropped to 950 in the next three days, then worked its way
back to 1050 in four weeks, then plunged again to 950 rather
suddenly, do you think anyone might think about going short on the
next bounce? ^_-
Yuki
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