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Franko,
The Historical H&S [and inv H&S] together with the necklines is
x = Cum(1);
per = 3;
back=100;
inter=200;
s11=H;s12=L;R=0;RR=0;
/* H & S */
pR = PeakBars( s11, per, 1 ) == 0;
endt1= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, R+1 ));
medt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, R+2));
startt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, x, R+3 ));
dt1=endt1-startt1;
C1=x==endt1 OR x==medt1 OR x==startt1;
endR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, R+1 ) );
medR=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( pR, s11, R+2 ) );
startR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( pR, s11, R+3 ));
Filter1=medR>endR AND medR>startR AND abs(startR-endR)<0.02*
(startR+endR) AND
dt1<inter AND endt1>SelectedValue(x)-back;
MaxGraph=12;Graph1=C;Graph1Style=64;GraphXSpace=5;
/*H&S Neck Line*/
Aper=medt1-startt1;bper=endt1-medt1;
La= SelectedValue(ValueWhen(x==medt1,LLV(L,Aper)));
Lb=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(x==-1+endt1,LLV(L,bper)));
Fa=L==La AND x>startt1 AND x<medt1;
Fb=L==Lb AND x>medt1 AND x<endt1;
endt= SelectedValue(ValueWhen( Fb, x ));
startt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( Fa, x ));
dtS =endt-startt;endS = Lb;startS = La;
aS = (endS-startS)/dtS;bS = endS;
trendlineS = aS * ( x -endt ) + bS;
Graph3 = IIf(Filter1 AND x>startt-5 AND x<endt+back,trendlineS,-
1e10);Graph3BarColor=7;
/*Inverted H & S*/
tpR = TroughBars( s12, per, 1 ) == 0;
tendt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(tpr,x,RR+1));
tmedt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(tpr,x,RR+2));
tstartt1=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(tpr,x,RR+3));
tdt1=tendt1-tstartt1;
C2=x==tendt1 OR x==tmedt1 OR x==tstartt1;
tendR = SelectedValue(ValueWhen( tpR, s12, RR+1 ) );
tmedR=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( tpR, s12, RR+2 ) );
tstartR = SelectedValue( ValueWhen( tpR, s12, RR+3 ));
Filter2=tmedR<tendR AND tmedR<tstartR AND
abs(tstartR-tendR)<0.02*(tstartR+tendR) AND tdt1<inter AND
tendt1>SelectedValue(x)-back;
/*Inverted H&S Neck Line*/
tAper=tmedt1-tstartt1;tbper=tendt1-tmedt1;
Ha= SelectedValue(ValueWhen(x==tmedt1,HHV(H,tAper)));
Hb=SelectedValue(ValueWhen(x==-1+tendt1,HHV(H,tbper)));
tFa=H==Ha AND x>tstartt1 AND x<tmedt1;
tFb=H==Hb AND x>tmedt1 AND x<tendt1;
Rendt= SelectedValue(ValueWhen(tFb, x ));
Rstartt=SelectedValue(ValueWhen( tFa, x ));
Rdt =Rendt-Rstartt;endR = Hb;startR = Ha;
aR = (endR-startR)/Rdt;bR = endR;
trendlineR = aR * ( x -Rendt ) + bR;
Graph4 = IIf(Filter2 AND x>Rstartt-5 AND x<Rendt+back,trendlineR,-
1e10);Graph4BarColor=10;
upcr=filter2 AND Cross(C,trendlineR) AND x>tendt1;
dncr=filter1 AND Cross(trendlineS,C) AND x>endt1;
/*H&S target*/
diff1=ValueWhen(x==medt1,C-trendlineS);
target1=trendlineS-diff1;
target1cross=Cross(target1,C) AND Filter1;
Graph5=IIf(filter1 AND x>endt1 AND x<endt1+back,target1,-1e10);
Graph5Style=8;Graph5BarColor=7;
/*Inverted H&S target*/
diff2=ValueWhen(x==tmedt1,trendlineR-C);
target2=trendlineR+diff2;
target2cross=Cross(C,target2) AND Filter2;
Graph6=IIf(Filter2 AND x>tendt1 AND x<tendt1+back,target2,-
1e10);Graph6Style=8;Graph6BarColor=10;
Graph1BarColor=IIf(C1 AND Filter1,7,IIf(C2 AND Filter2,10,IIf(upcr OR
target2cross,5,IIf(dncr OR target1cross,4,1))));
The recent ^N225 H&S was visible for per=3 [per stands for the zig
percentage...]
Move your cursor to the right to see previous H&S formations.
For the ^N225 go to the beginning of 2003 to see the simultaneous H&S
and invH&S.
This is the objective side. Same per for both Nov and Jan, same H&S
detection, no matter if someone "sees" it or not.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Franco Gornati <francogornati@xxxx>
wrote:
> DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS wrote:
>
> > When the statistics is not on your side, then the decision is not
due
> > the the H&S pattern.[10 or 100 other important reasons but not
H&S].
>
> Dimitris, sorry for the delay of the answer. I don't know exactly
the
> statistics you employ here but, on the methodological ground, you
should
> make them conditional on the information available.
> If you are going to assign a probability to an event you shouldn't
drop
> bit of information. Counting the number of times something has
happened
> is only a part of the information available.
> TA patterns (per se) are useless. For example, when we talk of
inversion
> H&S we are talking of a subset of all H&S. H&S for their very
> configuration are likely to be found at inversion point (just as
> divergences). But, think, I just discovered somewhere on the
Internet
> that also a H&S of continuation exist. Yes. They have exhausted
every
> possible world.
> That's why I said that the simple mechanical H&S strategy is a poor
> strategy.
> But if you have additional information, and Yuki amply provided it,
that
> you can synthesize in a coherent forecast and you gauge its
> probabilities (that are *always* subjective) positive for your
setup,
> then you go for the trade.
> Anyway, the only existence of a H&S configuration is not sufficient
> reason to take that trade.
I will agree 100%. We need more evidence. If there are any
suggestions from experience, we may add them to the above code to
make it better, as I wrote to Yuki. I would try to code additional
inputs, if the subject is interesting.
Dimitris Tsokakis
>
> > For your further analysis, I may provide you with the Historical
H&S
> > code [similar to the Historical trendlines already posted here]
to
> > see the severe reality of the past right on your amibroker screen.
> > Just let me know if you are interested...
>
> It would be nice.
>
> Take care,
>
> Franco
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