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Yuki,
The situation is explained at
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/52202
This is the T/A H&S and this is the Nikkei.
If you try to apply T/A H&S to this [interesting] period, you will
crash both sides.
[We can not easily speak for the direction of the market, things were
changing without our permission.]
Do not confuse the T/A H&S with your magnificent way of trading.
The recent H&S was an inspiration for you, it is only a T/A fact for
the rest [poor T/A followers] of us.
I hope it is clear now.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DT,
>
> Monday, November 17, 2003, 5:44:14 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Franco Gornati
<francogornati@xxxx>
> DT> wrote:
> >> Hi DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS on 15/11/2003, 17.34.12 +0100 you wrote:
> >>
> >> > Your text is an excellent presentation of "trading T/A before
T/A
> >> > signals", very interesting but a bit dangerous for people who
dont
> >> > even know Dylan. Your H&S was blowing in the wind, I'm afraid
you
> >> > were the only person who walked on this side [not to mention
> >> > the "walk on the wild side" here] and I'm more than happy you
> DT> pocket
> >> > the results.
> >>
> >> Almost every TA text describes Yuki's trading approach to H&S.
It's
> DT> usually labeled as 'aggressive trader' approach to H&S. Then
there
> DT> is 'sure thing trader' approach and even 'late comer' approach.
> >> Surely it can't be mechanized in a simple rule that, btw, it's
> DT> known to be non-effective.
> >> --
> >> Franco
>
> DT> Franko,
> DT> The "aggressive trader" approach, if we speak for the [weak]
H&S
> DT> formations, is statistically wrong [if not catastrophic].
>
> I really don't understand all the static I'm getting on this. Let
me
> refresh your memory:
>
> 1) I anticipated a right shoulder formation. This is NOT to say
that
> I anticipated it would end up being a valid H&S, and that it
> signalled a sure top, but that I anticipated the possibility of
such.
> For God's sake, if I had anticipated the whole thing, I would be
> laughing to death today, raking in HUGE short profits from positions
> I put on Friday, or from the positions I covered Tuesday that in
> retrospect were a mistake. I DID NOT RE-SHORT Friday. I was flat.
> Shame on me, but I expected just a bit more trouble with the
neckline
> than we got.
>
> 2) Moreover, I traded IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAIN TREND, as the
> right shoulder formed at first. Then, I took profits. Then I
WAITED
> as the formation rolled over, and entered shorts last Monday on
> signals.
>
> Catastrophic? Okay. ^^_^^
>
> DT> The same H&S pattern, with the same per=3, occurred many times
in the
> DT> past history of the same ^N225, but, unfortunately, without the
same
> DT> results, even when they were fully formatted. If you examine
the not-
> DT> yet-H&S, then you will crash again and again with the almost-
always-
> DT> tricky last leg.
>
> When you see this type of formation, it is a topping formation. It
> has been a topping formation for the nearly 35 years I have been
> trading. I used to buy them long and get killed many decades ago.
I
> play them correctly now. They fail. They fail, they fail, they
> fail. They may well come back, but they fail first, and I think the
> statistics would bear me out, but I am not prepared to offer
> mathematical proof that would stand up on this board. ^_^
>
> DT> When the statistics is not on your side, then the decision is
not due
> DT> the the H&S pattern.[10 or 100 other important reasons but not
H&S].
> DT> Simply go back to the beginning of this year :The first 5 ^N225
> DT> trading bars, you are in front of a bullish inverted H&S and a
> DT> simultaneous bearish H&S [both fully formated]!!!
>
> I'm sorry, but are you talking about this year? If so, that is
> perhaps the ugliest inverted H&S I've ever seen. ^^_^^ In fact, I
> don't even really see it. The beginning of this year (and the end
of
> last year) look like sideways mush to me.
>
> DT> What would you do then, no matter if you belong to
the 'aggressive
> DT> trader' or the 'sure thing trader' or even the 'late comer'
> DT> approach ??
>
> Well, you simply manage your trades, and not all of them are going
to
> be winners, for sure. I can't believe I'm explaining that you
*you*,
> DT. ^^_^^
>
> Yuki
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