|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
"LOL, right ..."? What simulation software did you use? No answer?
I didn't think I'd get one. You don't know what you're talking about
unless you've run extensive MCS on these methods with numerous systems
and compared them side by side. I've tested Van Tharp's stuff and
would agree that it works. But there's stuff in Jones' book that
produces better risk/reward curves. BTW, what he did with his own
account (assuming what you say is true) is irrelevant. How do you
*know* that he did it "using his own methods?" Did he have a viable
trading system to begin with? Did he follow it? If so, which money
management method from his book did he use and did he follow that?
Your humble opinion, lol? This from the guy who banned Tomasz from
his group, lol! Look Fred, if you've got nothing better to do than
sit there and try to start a flame war, please do it with someone
else. Because you simply don't know what you're talking about on
this. Have a great day.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> LOL, right ...
>
> IMHO Van K. Tharp's writings on this topic are more on target.
>
> And in all honesty I'm not surprised that Jones traded his own
account
> (s) into 90+% DD's using his own mehtods.
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx> wrote:
> > Well you didn't do it correctly. What simulation software did
you
> use?
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Yes I have which is why I said I must be one of the ignorant
ones.
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > > Have you read and tested the stuff in his book, or are you
just
> > > making
> > > > a typically provocative comment?
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > Ryan Jones ? OMG ... I must be one of the ignorant ones.
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2"
<feierstein@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > > > Hi Leo!
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Let me elaborate. Although I wouldn't put $.02 on a
> *simple*
> > > > > > Martingale or anti-Martingale method of money management,
I
> do
> > > think
> > > > > > that the latter is certainly viable while the former is
> not.
> > > How to
> > > > > do
> > > > > > better? I'd recommend reading The Trading Game by Ryan
> Jones
> > > *and
> > > > > > then running simulations* of the tradeoff between equity
> growth
> > > and
> > > > > > drawdown for the various methods *for your trading
> systems*. I
> > > > > > developed my personal favorites after reading this book
but
> > > everyone
> > > > > > needs to look at their own curves from their own
> simulations for
> > > > > > themselves to see what suits them best. This is a
tedious
> > > project
> > > > > and
> > > > > > not much fun, but well worth the effort in my opinion.
> BTW, if
> > > you
> > > > > > look at the reviews of this book on amazon, there are
some
> > > > > *incredibly
> > > > > > ignorant* ones by people who obviously didn't take the
time
> to
> > > dig
> > > > > in
> > > > > > to the material and do their homework which to me, is
> running
> > > > > > simulations on all of the methods. I have and trust me,
> lol,
> > > > > there's
> > > > > > good stuff in this book.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Best Regards,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Mark
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "leonardot19"
> > > > > <leo.timmermans@xxxx>
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > Hi Mark,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Which MM technique would you use than, can you give an
> example
> > > > > > > please ?
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Kind regards
> > > > > > > Leo
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2"
> <feierstein@xxxx>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > Neither of these is a technique I'd put $.02 on,
quite
> > > easily
> > > > > > > > demonstrated by bootstrapping representative trades
> while
> > > > > applying
> > > > > > > > them. Every time I mention simulation everyones'
eyes
> glaze
> > > > > > over,
> > > > > > > but
> > > > > > > > if you're not using it for position sizing or money
> > > management
> > > > > or
> > > > > > > > whatever you want to call it, you're flying blind.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand"
> > > <palsanand@xxxx>
> > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > Dave,
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > There is a good link I came across:
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > http://www.arbtrading.com/moneymanagement.htm
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > I like the Anti-Martingale and Martingale (doubling
> up)
> > > > > systems
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > manage drawdowns. I would use a combination of
these
> > > systems,
> > > > > > so
> > > > > > > > > that when I'm losing money I would use Martingale
> system
> > > and
> > > > > > when
> > > > > > > > I'm
> > > > > > > > > finally making money with the final position, I
would
> be
> > > > > > > > > automatically switched over to Anti-Martingale
> system,
> > > but
> > > > > may
> > > > > > > most
> > > > > > > > > likely exit losing positions at break-even price.
I
> would
> > > > > > double
> > > > > > > > up
> > > > > > > > > only when I get stronger signals verfied by OB/OS
> > > conditions
> > > > > in
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > subsequent session, so that my system of using
3BSMA
> for
> > > the
> > > > > > next
> > > > > > > > > session is temporarily suspended. It does take
> usually
> > > about
> > > > > 3
> > > > > > > > days
> > > > > > > > > for a trend-change to fully develop. I would not
> double
> > > up
> > > > > > beyond
> > > > > > > > 3
> > > > > > > > > consecutive days, because if you are wrong 4 times
in
> a
> > > row,
> > > > > > most
> > > > > > > > > likely the market is starting a new trend in the
> opposite
> > > > > > > direction
> > > > > > > > > and will go against you and so better to exit. I
> have
> > > done
> > > > > this
> > > > > > > > many
> > > > > > > > > times, as I find it impossible to optimize my entry
> > > points.
> > > > > But
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > safest course is to wait for the actual
Trend-change
> > > signal
> > > > > > > > verified
> > > > > > > > > by OB/OS conditions, then you may never have to
> double up
> > > but
> > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > may
> > > > > > > > > miss some signals. This may sound crazy for some
but
> it
> > > does
> > > > > > seem
> > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > work for me especially with the AFL pivot points to
> > > predict
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > > Next
> > > > > > > > > bar approximate High/Low of Day and appropriate
> position
> > > > > sizing.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Regarding whether your system has stopped working
or
> not,
> > > it
> > > > > is
> > > > > > > > hard
> > > > > > > > > to say. I would try to improve the system
> performance
> > > using a
> > > > > > > > system
> > > > > > > > > of filters, stops and walkforward testing. Easier
> said
> > > than
> > > > > > > done...
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > Pal
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
> > > > > > <dmerrill@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > > I've been wondering, could I trade a system with
> 50%
> > > > > average
> > > > > > > gain
> > > > > > > > > per year
> > > > > > > > > > since '95, and max system drawdown of 40-50%.
even
> if
> > > I've
> > > > > > seen
> > > > > > > > > that in
> > > > > > > > > > backtests beforehand, could I really look at that
> kind
> > > of
> > > > > > drop
> > > > > > > in
> > > > > > > > > my account
> > > > > > > > > > and still believe I was doing the right thing? or
> would
> > > I
> > > > > > think
> > > > > > > > > it'd finally
> > > > > > > > > > just stopped working? and if I am able to ignore
> that
> > > much
> > > > > > > > > drawdown, how
> > > > > > > > > > would I know if it really *had* stopped working?
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > by the half-the-gain-twice-the-drawdown
> tolerability
> > > rule,
> > > > > > this
> > > > > > > > is a
> > > > > > > > > > non-starter.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > dave
> > > > > > > > > > Defense ... Yep or as I've said it's not what
you
> > > make,
> > > > > it's
> > > > > > > > what
> > > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > keep. DD's are killers from lots of aspects
not
> just
> > > in
> > > > > > terms
> > > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > > what they do to your account balance but also
> what
> > > they do
> > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > ones
> > > > > > > > > > ability psycologically to trade and stay with
> systems
> > > that
> > > > > > do
> > > > > > > > > work.
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Buy Ink Cartridges or Refill Kits for your HP, Epson, Canon or Lexmark
Printer at MyInks.com. Free s/h on orders $50 or more to the US & Canada.
http://www.c1tracking.com/l.asp?cid=5511
http://us.click.yahoo.com/mOAaAA/3exGAA/qnsNAA/GHeqlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
-----------------------------------------
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
--------------------------------------------
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|