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Nice try ... As far as what trading system he used and whether or not
it was viable, how would I know. As far as what MM techniques he
used, again how would I know except for the fact that it seems to say
one of two things, either his stuff doesn't work as demonstrated in
his book or he didn't think well enough of it to use it as opposed to
using something else. As far as your other reference goes, your
either part of that group in which case you should have understood
the reply I made and it should have made some sense or you aren't in
which case you don't have a clue as to what you are referring to.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx> wrote:
> "LOL, right ..."? What simulation software did you use? No
answer?
> I didn't think I'd get one. You don't know what you're talking
about
> unless you've run extensive MCS on these methods with numerous
systems
> and compared them side by side. I've tested Van Tharp's stuff and
> would agree that it works. But there's stuff in Jones' book that
> produces better risk/reward curves. BTW, what he did with his own
> account (assuming what you say is true) is irrelevant. How do you
> *know* that he did it "using his own methods?" Did he have a viable
> trading system to begin with? Did he follow it? If so, which money
> management method from his book did he use and did he follow that?
> Your humble opinion, lol? This from the guy who banned Tomasz from
> his group, lol! Look Fred, if you've got nothing better to do than
> sit there and try to start a flame war, please do it with someone
> else. Because you simply don't know what you're talking about on
> this. Have a great day.
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > LOL, right ...
> >
> > IMHO Van K. Tharp's writings on this topic are more on target.
> >
> > And in all honesty I'm not surprised that Jones traded his own
> account
> > (s) into 90+% DD's using his own mehtods.
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > Well you didn't do it correctly. What simulation software did
> you
> > use?
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Yes I have which is why I said I must be one of the ignorant
> ones.
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > Have you read and tested the stuff in his book, or are you
> just
> > > > making
> > > > > a typically provocative comment?
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > > > > Ryan Jones ? OMG ... I must be one of the ignorant ones.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2"
> <feierstein@xxxx>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > Hi Leo!
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Let me elaborate. Although I wouldn't put $.02 on a
> > *simple*
> > > > > > > Martingale or anti-Martingale method of money
management,
> I
> > do
> > > > think
> > > > > > > that the latter is certainly viable while the former is
> > not.
> > > > How to
> > > > > > do
> > > > > > > better? I'd recommend reading The Trading Game by Ryan
> > Jones
> > > > *and
> > > > > > > then running simulations* of the tradeoff between
equity
> > growth
> > > > and
> > > > > > > drawdown for the various methods *for your trading
> > systems*. I
> > > > > > > developed my personal favorites after reading this book
> but
> > > > everyone
> > > > > > > needs to look at their own curves from their own
> > simulations for
> > > > > > > themselves to see what suits them best. This is a
> tedious
> > > > project
> > > > > > and
> > > > > > > not much fun, but well worth the effort in my opinion.
> > BTW, if
> > > > you
> > > > > > > look at the reviews of this book on amazon, there are
> some
> > > > > > *incredibly
> > > > > > > ignorant* ones by people who obviously didn't take the
> time
> > to
> > > > dig
> > > > > > in
> > > > > > > to the material and do their homework which to me, is
> > running
> > > > > > > simulations on all of the methods. I have and trust
me,
> > lol,
> > > > > > there's
> > > > > > > good stuff in this book.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Best Regards,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Mark
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "leonardot19"
> > > > > > <leo.timmermans@xxxx>
> > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > Hi Mark,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Which MM technique would you use than, can you give
an
> > example
> > > > > > > > please ?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Kind regards
> > > > > > > > Leo
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2"
> > <feierstein@xxxx>
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > Neither of these is a technique I'd put $.02 on,
> quite
> > > > easily
> > > > > > > > > demonstrated by bootstrapping representative trades
> > while
> > > > > > applying
> > > > > > > > > them. Every time I mention simulation everyones'
> eyes
> > glaze
> > > > > > > over,
> > > > > > > > but
> > > > > > > > > if you're not using it for position sizing or money
> > > > management
> > > > > > or
> > > > > > > > > whatever you want to call it, you're flying blind.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand"
> > > > <palsanand@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > > Dave,
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > There is a good link I came across:
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > http://www.arbtrading.com/moneymanagement.htm
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > I like the Anti-Martingale and Martingale
(doubling
> > up)
> > > > > > systems
> > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > > manage drawdowns. I would use a combination of
> these
> > > > systems,
> > > > > > > so
> > > > > > > > > > that when I'm losing money I would use Martingale
> > system
> > > > and
> > > > > > > when
> > > > > > > > > I'm
> > > > > > > > > > finally making money with the final position, I
> would
> > be
> > > > > > > > > > automatically switched over to Anti-Martingale
> > system,
> > > > but
> > > > > > may
> > > > > > > > most
> > > > > > > > > > likely exit losing positions at break-even price.
> I
> > would
> > > > > > > double
> > > > > > > > > up
> > > > > > > > > > only when I get stronger signals verfied by OB/OS
> > > > conditions
> > > > > > in
> > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > subsequent session, so that my system of using
> 3BSMA
> > for
> > > > the
> > > > > > > next
> > > > > > > > > > session is temporarily suspended. It does take
> > usually
> > > > about
> > > > > > 3
> > > > > > > > > days
> > > > > > > > > > for a trend-change to fully develop. I would not
> > double
> > > > up
> > > > > > > beyond
> > > > > > > > > 3
> > > > > > > > > > consecutive days, because if you are wrong 4 times
> in
> > a
> > > > row,
> > > > > > > most
> > > > > > > > > > likely the market is starting a new trend in the
> > opposite
> > > > > > > > direction
> > > > > > > > > > and will go against you and so better to exit. I
> > have
> > > > done
> > > > > > this
> > > > > > > > > many
> > > > > > > > > > times, as I find it impossible to optimize my
entry
> > > > points.
> > > > > > But
> > > > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > > safest course is to wait for the actual
> Trend-change
> > > > signal
> > > > > > > > > verified
> > > > > > > > > > by OB/OS conditions, then you may never have to
> > double up
> > > > but
> > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > may
> > > > > > > > > > miss some signals. This may sound crazy for some
> but
> > it
> > > > does
> > > > > > > seem
> > > > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > > work for me especially with the AFL pivot points
to
> > > > predict
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > > Next
> > > > > > > > > > bar approximate High/Low of Day and appropriate
> > position
> > > > > > sizing.
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Regarding whether your system has stopped working
> or
> > not,
> > > > it
> > > > > > is
> > > > > > > > > hard
> > > > > > > > > > to say. I would try to improve the system
> > performance
> > > > using a
> > > > > > > > > system
> > > > > > > > > > of filters, stops and walkforward testing.
Easier
> > said
> > > > than
> > > > > > > > done...
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > Pal
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
> > > > > > > <dmerrill@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > > > I've been wondering, could I trade a system
with
> > 50%
> > > > > > average
> > > > > > > > gain
> > > > > > > > > > per year
> > > > > > > > > > > since '95, and max system drawdown of 40-50%.
> even
> > if
> > > > I've
> > > > > > > seen
> > > > > > > > > > that in
> > > > > > > > > > > backtests beforehand, could I really look at
that
> > kind
> > > > of
> > > > > > > drop
> > > > > > > > in
> > > > > > > > > > my account
> > > > > > > > > > > and still believe I was doing the right thing?
or
> > would
> > > > I
> > > > > > > think
> > > > > > > > > > it'd finally
> > > > > > > > > > > just stopped working? and if I am able to
ignore
> > that
> > > > much
> > > > > > > > > > drawdown, how
> > > > > > > > > > > would I know if it really *had* stopped working?
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > by the half-the-gain-twice-the-drawdown
> > tolerability
> > > > rule,
> > > > > > > this
> > > > > > > > > is a
> > > > > > > > > > > non-starter.
> > > > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > > > dave
> > > > > > > > > > > Defense ... Yep or as I've said it's not what
> you
> > > > make,
> > > > > > it's
> > > > > > > > > what
> > > > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > > > keep. DD's are killers from lots of aspects
> not
> > just
> > > > in
> > > > > > > terms
> > > > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > > > what they do to your account balance but also
> > what
> > > > they do
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > > ones
> > > > > > > > > > > ability psycologically to trade and stay with
> > systems
> > > > that
> > > > > > > do
> > > > > > > > > > work.
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