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LOL, right ...
IMHO Van K. Tharp's writings on this topic are more on target.
And in all honesty I'm not surprised that Jones traded his own account
(s) into 90+% DD's using his own mehtods.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx> wrote:
> Well you didn't do it correctly. What simulation software did you
use?
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > Yes I have which is why I said I must be one of the ignorant ones.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > Have you read and tested the stuff in his book, or are you just
> > making
> > > a typically provocative comment?
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Ryan Jones ? OMG ... I must be one of the ignorant ones.
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2" <feierstein@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > > > Hi Leo!
> > > > >
> > > > > Let me elaborate. Although I wouldn't put $.02 on a
*simple*
> > > > > Martingale or anti-Martingale method of money management, I
do
> > think
> > > > > that the latter is certainly viable while the former is
not.
> > How to
> > > > do
> > > > > better? I'd recommend reading The Trading Game by Ryan
Jones
> > *and
> > > > > then running simulations* of the tradeoff between equity
growth
> > and
> > > > > drawdown for the various methods *for your trading
systems*. I
> > > > > developed my personal favorites after reading this book but
> > everyone
> > > > > needs to look at their own curves from their own
simulations for
> > > > > themselves to see what suits them best. This is a tedious
> > project
> > > > and
> > > > > not much fun, but well worth the effort in my opinion.
BTW, if
> > you
> > > > > look at the reviews of this book on amazon, there are some
> > > > *incredibly
> > > > > ignorant* ones by people who obviously didn't take the time
to
> > dig
> > > > in
> > > > > to the material and do their homework which to me, is
running
> > > > > simulations on all of the methods. I have and trust me,
lol,
> > > > there's
> > > > > good stuff in this book.
> > > > >
> > > > > Best Regards,
> > > > >
> > > > > Mark
> > > > >
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "leonardot19"
> > > > <leo.timmermans@xxxx>
> > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > Hi Mark,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Which MM technique would you use than, can you give an
example
> > > > > > please ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Kind regards
> > > > > > Leo
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "MarkF2"
<feierstein@xxxx>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > Neither of these is a technique I'd put $.02 on, quite
> > easily
> > > > > > > demonstrated by bootstrapping representative trades
while
> > > > applying
> > > > > > > them. Every time I mention simulation everyones' eyes
glaze
> > > > > over,
> > > > > > but
> > > > > > > if you're not using it for position sizing or money
> > management
> > > > or
> > > > > > > whatever you want to call it, you're flying blind.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand"
> > <palsanand@xxxx>
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > Dave,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > There is a good link I came across:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > http://www.arbtrading.com/moneymanagement.htm
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I like the Anti-Martingale and Martingale (doubling
up)
> > > > systems
> > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > manage drawdowns. I would use a combination of these
> > systems,
> > > > > so
> > > > > > > > that when I'm losing money I would use Martingale
system
> > and
> > > > > when
> > > > > > > I'm
> > > > > > > > finally making money with the final position, I would
be
> > > > > > > > automatically switched over to Anti-Martingale
system,
> > but
> > > > may
> > > > > > most
> > > > > > > > likely exit losing positions at break-even price. I
would
> > > > > double
> > > > > > > up
> > > > > > > > only when I get stronger signals verfied by OB/OS
> > conditions
> > > > in
> > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > subsequent session, so that my system of using 3BSMA
for
> > the
> > > > > next
> > > > > > > > session is temporarily suspended. It does take
usually
> > about
> > > > 3
> > > > > > > days
> > > > > > > > for a trend-change to fully develop. I would not
double
> > up
> > > > > beyond
> > > > > > > 3
> > > > > > > > consecutive days, because if you are wrong 4 times in
a
> > row,
> > > > > most
> > > > > > > > likely the market is starting a new trend in the
opposite
> > > > > > direction
> > > > > > > > and will go against you and so better to exit. I
have
> > done
> > > > this
> > > > > > > many
> > > > > > > > times, as I find it impossible to optimize my entry
> > points.
> > > > But
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > safest course is to wait for the actual Trend-change
> > signal
> > > > > > > verified
> > > > > > > > by OB/OS conditions, then you may never have to
double up
> > but
> > > > > you
> > > > > > > may
> > > > > > > > miss some signals. This may sound crazy for some but
it
> > does
> > > > > seem
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > work for me especially with the AFL pivot points to
> > predict
> > > > the
> > > > > > > Next
> > > > > > > > bar approximate High/Low of Day and appropriate
position
> > > > sizing.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Regarding whether your system has stopped working or
not,
> > it
> > > > is
> > > > > > > hard
> > > > > > > > to say. I would try to improve the system
performance
> > using a
> > > > > > > system
> > > > > > > > of filters, stops and walkforward testing. Easier
said
> > than
> > > > > > done...
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Pal
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
> > > > > <dmerrill@xxxx>
> > > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > I've been wondering, could I trade a system with
50%
> > > > average
> > > > > > gain
> > > > > > > > per year
> > > > > > > > > since '95, and max system drawdown of 40-50%. even
if
> > I've
> > > > > seen
> > > > > > > > that in
> > > > > > > > > backtests beforehand, could I really look at that
kind
> > of
> > > > > drop
> > > > > > in
> > > > > > > > my account
> > > > > > > > > and still believe I was doing the right thing? or
would
> > I
> > > > > think
> > > > > > > > it'd finally
> > > > > > > > > just stopped working? and if I am able to ignore
that
> > much
> > > > > > > > drawdown, how
> > > > > > > > > would I know if it really *had* stopped working?
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > by the half-the-gain-twice-the-drawdown
tolerability
> > rule,
> > > > > this
> > > > > > > is a
> > > > > > > > > non-starter.
> > > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > > dave
> > > > > > > > > Defense ... Yep or as I've said it's not what you
> > make,
> > > > it's
> > > > > > > what
> > > > > > > > you
> > > > > > > > > keep. DD's are killers from lots of aspects not
just
> > in
> > > > > terms
> > > > > > > of
> > > > > > > > > what they do to your account balance but also
what
> > they do
> > > > > to
> > > > > > > ones
> > > > > > > > > ability psycologically to trade and stay with
systems
> > that
> > > > > do
> > > > > > > > work.
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