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<SPAN
class=618400812-20102003>forget it fred. I respect your progamming skills, your
intellect, and what I know of your trading history as well. but if you're not
going to answer the question, don't pretend to.
<SPAN
class=618400812-20102003><FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>
<SPAN
class=618400812-20102003>dave
<BLOCKQUOTE
>From
my perpsective all of them ...--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave
Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx> wrote:> come on fred, I'm serious,
you know what I'm asking.> > we don't need to know specifically
how far up something will go, that's just> one way of knowing
something about when it will go back down.> > the point is to
profit for our trades. that requires buying lower than we> sell.
what aspects of market behavior have been constant over time that>
enable us to do that?> > dave> In order to
make money, which is what I thought the goal was, do
we> really need to know how high is up etc. ?>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
<dmerrill@xxxx>> wrote:> >
knowing that the markets go up and down isn't tradable
knowledge.> you have> > to know
something about *which* of those two things will happen,
to> which> > stocks, when, and/or how
far. as far as I know, patterns on those> levels
do> > change over time, or at least the lengths over
which they cycle> change.>
>> > what *tradable* market behaviors are there that
are constant over> time?>
>> > dave> > From:
Fred [mailto:fctonetti@xxxx]> >>
> Uhhh ... the ups and the downs ... as far as I can tell
marlets> have> >
pretty much done that since the beginning of time. Nothing
much> > different about it in my view
today the it was in any other time> >
frame.> >> > --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
<dmerrill@xxxx>> >
wrote:> > > I'm serious fred. what kinds
of tradable market behaviors are>
you> > talking>
> > about that aren't related to things that change over
time?> > >>
> > basic example: virtually every description of market
behavior> I'm> >
aware of> > > has time constants, trigger
levels, and other "static" features> >
whose best> > > performing values migrate
or cycle over time. it seems unlikely>
on> > the face>
> > of it that the point where some specific MA crosses
another> > specific MA is
a> > > quasi-permanently useful switch
point, for instance. what> inherent>
> mechanism> > > of market
behavior that makes this optimum, as opposed to some>
> other pair of> > > MAs?
is it really possible that these specific parameter
values> are> > >
constant, given all the changes in the economy, the
trading> > population,>
> > analysis technology, etc?>
> >> > > you must be
talking about some other level of behavior that's>
> constant in> > > some
pan-historical sense, but I'm lost without an example of
a> > tradable>
> > feature like this.> >
>> > > (it's interesting to me that
auto-optimizing system don't have> >
those kinds> > > of static parameters in
the same sense. yes, they have> specifics
of> > course,>
> > like constraints on the range of each parameter, time
constants> on> >
their> > > learning behaviors, and a
definition of an equity metric. but>
they> > make no>
> > assumptions about what time constants or crossover
levels work> > well,
they> > > just try 'em and
see.)> > >>
> > dave> >
>> > > forest
(:-)> > >>
> > what kinds of tradable market behavior
should we be looking> > at/for
that> > > transcend the "short-sighted
view of history" we *shouldn't* be> >
looking for?> > >>
> > dave> >
>> > > This
makes me want to ask what your longest possible time>
frame> > is ?>
> >> >
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave
Merrill"> <dmerrill@xxxx>>
> > wrote:>
> > > well yes, you're right, the
same stuff is always> happening.>
> prices> >
> go up,> >
> > prices go down, and they always
have.> > >
>> > > >
but that's not useful info to trade on. what we care> about
is> > > trends of
some> > > >
kind that can be predicted/hoped to continue or reverse
in> > some>
> > particular>
> > > time frame. that's
knowledge we can profit from. and those>
> trends> >
> come and> >
> > go constantly, on every time scale. these
shorter-term> moves> >
are> > > what
we> > > >
trade.> > >
>> > > >
here's my question I guess: if I only see behavior
that> never> >
> changes over> >
> > the longest possible time frame, what do I
see that I can> use?>
> > >>
> > > dave>
> > > There are a lot
of questions and provacative statements>
in> > your>
> > post,>
> > > only one of
which from my perspective needs an> >
answer/response.> >
> >> >
> > Market behavior will continually
change after that ...> >
> >> >
> > Change ? from what ? into what ?
I guess this is the> part I>
> don't> >
> > follow. To me there is
nothing new in market behavior> now>
> that> >
> > didn't exist last month, last
year, last decade, last> > century,
but> > >
> clearly those that take a short sighted view of
history> and> >
the> > >
> market action that made up that history will
clearly> never> > see
it.> > >
> It's a forest and trees thing
...
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