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Dave,
>From my perpsective all of them ...
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
wrote:
> come on fred, I'm serious, you know what I'm asking.
>
> we don't need to know specifically how far up something will go,
that's just
> one way of knowing something about when it will go back down.
>
> the point is to profit for our trades. that requires buying lower
than we
> sell. what aspects of market behavior have been constant over time
that
> enable us to do that?
>
> dave
> In order to make money, which is what I thought the goal was, do
we
> really need to know how high is up etc. ?
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > knowing that the markets go up and down isn't tradable
knowledge.
> you have
> > to know something about *which* of those two things will
happen, to
> which
> > stocks, when, and/or how far. as far as I know, patterns on
those
> levels do
> > change over time, or at least the lengths over which they cycle
> change.
> >
> > what *tradable* market behaviors are there that are constant
over
> time?
> >
> > dave
> > From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@x...]
> >
> > Uhhh ... the ups and the downs ... as far as I can tell
marlets
> have
> > pretty much done that since the beginning of time. Nothing
much
> > different about it in my view today the it was in any other
time
> > frame.
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
<dmerrill@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > I'm serious fred. what kinds of tradable market behaviors
are
> you
> > talking
> > > about that aren't related to things that change over time?
> > >
> > > basic example: virtually every description of market
behavior
> I'm
> > aware of
> > > has time constants, trigger levels, and other "static"
features
> > whose best
> > > performing values migrate or cycle over time. it seems
unlikely
> on
> > the face
> > > of it that the point where some specific MA crosses another
> > specific MA is a
> > > quasi-permanently useful switch point, for instance. what
> inherent
> > mechanism
> > > of market behavior that makes this optimum, as opposed to
some
> > other pair of
> > > MAs? is it really possible that these specific parameter
values
> are
> > > constant, given all the changes in the economy, the trading
> > population,
> > > analysis technology, etc?
> > >
> > > you must be talking about some other level of behavior
that's
> > constant in
> > > some pan-historical sense, but I'm lost without an example
of a
> > tradable
> > > feature like this.
> > >
> > > (it's interesting to me that auto-optimizing system don't
have
> > those kinds
> > > of static parameters in the same sense. yes, they have
> specifics of
> > course,
> > > like constraints on the range of each parameter, time
constants
> on
> > their
> > > learning behaviors, and a definition of an equity metric.
but
> they
> > make no
> > > assumptions about what time constants or crossover levels
work
> > well, they
> > > just try 'em and see.)
> > >
> > > dave
> > >
> > > forest (:-)
> > >
> > > what kinds of tradable market behavior should we be
looking
> > at/for that
> > > transcend the "short-sighted view of history" we
*shouldn't* be
> > looking for?
> > >
> > > dave
> > >
> > > This makes me want to ask what your longest possible
time
> frame
> > is ?
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
> <dmerrill@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > well yes, you're right, the same stuff is always
> happening.
> > prices
> > > go up,
> > > > prices go down, and they always have.
> > > >
> > > > but that's not useful info to trade on. what we care
> about is
> > > trends of some
> > > > kind that can be predicted/hoped to continue or
reverse in
> > some
> > > particular
> > > > time frame. that's knowledge we can profit from. and
those
> > trends
> > > come and
> > > > go constantly, on every time scale. these shorter-term
> moves
> > are
> > > what we
> > > > trade.
> > > >
> > > > here's my question I guess: if I only see behavior
that
> never
> > > changes over
> > > > the longest possible time frame, what do I see that I
can
> use?
> > > >
> > > > dave
> > > > There are a lot of questions and provacative
statements
> in
> > your
> > > post,
> > > > only one of which from my perspective needs an
> > answer/response.
> > > >
> > > > Market behavior will continually change after
that ...
> > > >
> > > > Change ? from what ? into what ? I guess this is the
> part I
> > don't
> > > > follow. To me there is nothing new in market
behavior
> now
> > that
> > > > didn't exist last month, last year, last decade,
last
> > century, but
> > > > clearly those that take a short sighted view of
history
> and
> > the
> > > > market action that made up that history will clearly
> never
> > see it.
> > > > It's a forest and trees thing ...
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