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Fine, I won't pretend to answer one when you stop pretending to ask
one. As I've stated, I see nothing different in the market action of
todays markets .vs. those of 10, 50 or 100 years ago. I don't know
how to be more clear then that.
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
wrote:
> forget it fred. I respect your progamming skills, your intellect,
and what I
> know of your trading history as well. but if you're not going to
answer the
> question, don't pretend to.
>
> dave
> From my perpsective all of them ...
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > come on fred, I'm serious, you know what I'm asking.
> >
> > we don't need to know specifically how far up something will go,
> that's just
> > one way of knowing something about when it will go back down.
> >
> > the point is to profit for our trades. that requires buying
lower
> than we
> > sell. what aspects of market behavior have been constant over
time
> that
> > enable us to do that?
> >
> > dave
> > In order to make money, which is what I thought the goal was,
do
> we
> > really need to know how high is up etc. ?
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
<dmerrill@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > knowing that the markets go up and down isn't tradable
> knowledge.
> > you have
> > > to know something about *which* of those two things will
> happen, to
> > which
> > > stocks, when, and/or how far. as far as I know, patterns on
> those
> > levels do
> > > change over time, or at least the lengths over which they
cycle
> > change.
> > >
> > > what *tradable* market behaviors are there that are constant
> over
> > time?
> > >
> > > dave
> > > From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@x...]
> > >
> > > Uhhh ... the ups and the downs ... as far as I can tell
> marlets
> > have
> > > pretty much done that since the beginning of time.
Nothing
> much
> > > different about it in my view today the it was in any
other
> time
> > > frame.
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
> <dmerrill@xxxx>
> > > wrote:
> > > > I'm serious fred. what kinds of tradable market
behaviors
> are
> > you
> > > talking
> > > > about that aren't related to things that change over
time?
> > > >
> > > > basic example: virtually every description of market
> behavior
> > I'm
> > > aware of
> > > > has time constants, trigger levels, and other "static"
> features
> > > whose best
> > > > performing values migrate or cycle over time. it seems
> unlikely
> > on
> > > the face
> > > > of it that the point where some specific MA crosses
another
> > > specific MA is a
> > > > quasi-permanently useful switch point, for instance.
what
> > inherent
> > > mechanism
> > > > of market behavior that makes this optimum, as opposed
to
> some
> > > other pair of
> > > > MAs? is it really possible that these specific parameter
> values
> > are
> > > > constant, given all the changes in the economy, the
trading
> > > population,
> > > > analysis technology, etc?
> > > >
> > > > you must be talking about some other level of behavior
> that's
> > > constant in
> > > > some pan-historical sense, but I'm lost without an
example
> of a
> > > tradable
> > > > feature like this.
> > > >
> > > > (it's interesting to me that auto-optimizing system
don't
> have
> > > those kinds
> > > > of static parameters in the same sense. yes, they have
> > specifics of
> > > course,
> > > > like constraints on the range of each parameter, time
> constants
> > on
> > > their
> > > > learning behaviors, and a definition of an equity
metric.
> but
> > they
> > > make no
> > > > assumptions about what time constants or crossover
levels
> work
> > > well, they
> > > > just try 'em and see.)
> > > >
> > > > dave
> > > >
> > > > forest (:-)
> > > >
> > > > what kinds of tradable market behavior should we be
> looking
> > > at/for that
> > > > transcend the "short-sighted view of history" we
> *shouldn't* be
> > > looking for?
> > > >
> > > > dave
> > > >
> > > > This makes me want to ask what your longest possible
> time
> > frame
> > > is ?
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
> > <dmerrill@xxxx>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > well yes, you're right, the same stuff is always
> > happening.
> > > prices
> > > > go up,
> > > > > prices go down, and they always have.
> > > > >
> > > > > but that's not useful info to trade on. what we
care
> > about is
> > > > trends of some
> > > > > kind that can be predicted/hoped to continue or
> reverse in
> > > some
> > > > particular
> > > > > time frame. that's knowledge we can profit from.
and
> those
> > > trends
> > > > come and
> > > > > go constantly, on every time scale. these shorter-
term
> > moves
> > > are
> > > > what we
> > > > > trade.
> > > > >
> > > > > here's my question I guess: if I only see behavior
> that
> > never
> > > > changes over
> > > > > the longest possible time frame, what do I see
that I
> can
> > use?
> > > > >
> > > > > dave
> > > > > There are a lot of questions and provacative
> statements
> > in
> > > your
> > > > post,
> > > > > only one of which from my perspective needs an
> > > answer/response.
> > > > >
> > > > > Market behavior will continually change after
> that ...
> > > > >
> > > > > Change ? from what ? into what ? I guess this
is the
> > part I
> > > don't
> > > > > follow. To me there is nothing new in market
> behavior
> > now
> > > that
> > > > > didn't exist last month, last year, last decade,
> last
> > > century, but
> > > > > clearly those that take a short sighted view of
> history
> > and
> > > the
> > > > > market action that made up that history will
clearly
> > never
> > > see it.
> > > > > It's a forest and trees thing ...
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