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Objective functions (was RE: [amibroker] Re: Optimization -- again)



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You can post whatever you think appropriate in terms of stats.  One 
would hope they include at least CAR and MDD.  Given that this is the 
first semi-positive response I've gotten you to make regarding 
systems that reach back in time prior to 3/2000, it's hardly I that 
has the narrow point of view.

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> 
wrote:
> What is this ?
> Except the mechanical character of the system, will you tell us now 
> the appropriate statistics before and after and whatever comes in 
> your mind to fit your narrow point of view ?
> You may apply these rules to your systems but it doesnīt mean you 
> express a universal must for mechanical systems.
> Anyway, you will have my examples in 6h...
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > Dimitris,
> > 
> > I have always wanted the answer ... I've yet to see one
> > 
> > The question has ALWAYS been the same ...
> > 
> > Let's see the equity curve of some system you like with the 
> > appropriate stats from 2-3 years before to 2-3 years after the 
> > relatively recent top.  I've posted mine, several times.  I'm 
still 
> > trading the same system(s).
> > 
> > Fred
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" 
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> 
> > wrote:
> > > Fred,
> > > It is the hard way to avoid any other opinion except yours !!
> > > Full examples are already available at request.
> > > Except if you want to keep this sterile and unproductive 
thought.
> > > You may avoid to change your position, [I will agree it is 
> > > convenient] but I really wonder why do you provocatively ask 
the 
> > same 
> > > question if you donīt want any answer...
> > > As for the dance, I think it takes 2 to tango...
> > > Dimitris Tsokakis 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > DT,
> > > > 
> > > > Nonsense ...
> > > > 
> > > > We've been here before.  Let's not do the same dance again, 
> okay ?
> > > > 
> > > > Fred
> > > > 
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" 
> > > <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> 
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > Fred,
> > > > > Although it is hard to understand your request, yes, I did 
it 
> > > [and 
> > > > I 
> > > > > will do it again...]
> > > > > And when I say mechanical, I mean it.
> > > > > Mechanical in logic, execution, starting date and ending 
date 
> > > > > [cycles].
> > > > > I have already posted some hint, I may post more, if you 
find 
> > it 
> > > > > interesting...
> > > > > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> 
> wrote:
> > > > > > LOL ... Okay, if you say so ... Let me know when any of 
you 
> > > guys 
> > > > > who 
> > > > > > believe this START trading mechanical systems with REAL 
> > money, 
> > > > I'll 
> > > > > > be very interested in your real time results.
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" 
<jcasavant@xxxx> 
> > > wrote:
> > > > > > > Fred,
> > > > > > > I think market behavior does change because the market 
> > itself 
> > > > has 
> > > > > > changed.
> > > > > > > 10 years ago your broker told you "Buy GE, put it under 
> the 
> > > > > > mattress, you
> > > > > > > will make money". If you took his advice and bought it 
on 
> > > > Monday 
> > > > > > only to
> > > > > > > watch it fall all week then called him up he would tell 
> > > you "We 
> > > > > are 
> > > > > > in this
> > > > > > > for the long haul, relax" ...... and you probably did, 
> > > > especially 
> > > > > > since your
> > > > > > > trade probably cost you over $100 round trip. 10 years 
> ago 
> > a 
> > > > one 
> > > > > > year or 6
> > > > > > > month hold was considered "Short Term" today that is no 
> > > longer 
> > > > > the 
> > > > > > case.
> > > > > > > With online brokerage accounts you can now buy and sell 
> > that 
> > > > same 
> > > > > > chunk of
> > > > > > > stock for $10 per side. Your broker isn't selling the 
> stock 
> > > de 
> > > > > > jour, instead
> > > > > > > you are picking it your self. You have access to 
hundreds 
> > of 
> > > > > > websites,
> > > > > > > dozens of data providers and have computer power on 
your 
> > desk 
> > > > > that 
> > > > > > could
> > > > > > > have launched a rocket a half a generation ago. And 
more 
> > > > > > importantly so do
> > > > > > > millions of other "Small investors". Day traders didn't 
> > even 
> > > > > exist. 
> > > > > > This
> > > > > > > isn't your fathers market,  IMO to back test data from 
10 
> > or 
> > > 20 
> > > > > > years ago
> > > > > > > and think that optimizing on that data to trade today 
> holds 
> > > > > little 
> > > > > > value.
> > > > > > > The markets turn on a dime and there is a whole new 
breed 
> > of 
> > > > more 
> > > > > > nimble
> > > > > > > traders taking part in the action. The dynamics and 
> > > psychology 
> > > > of 
> > > > > > the market
> > > > > > > is completely different. It is no longer ruled by the 
> few. 
> > > > Watch 
> > > > > the
> > > > > > > buy/sells go through and you see trade after trade of 
100-
> > 200 
> > > > or 
> > > > > > 500 shares.
> > > > > > > This is not Dean Whiter placing trades but Joe and Jill 
> six 
> > > > pack. 
> > > > > 5 
> > > > > > years
> > > > > > > ago I used to always wait until the first have hour of 
> > > trading 
> > > > > had 
> > > > > > passed
> > > > > > > before placing a trade to avoid the built up demand 
> already 
> > > in 
> > > > > the 
> > > > > > pipe. Now
> > > > > > > if I wait more than 10 minutes the train is out of the 
> > > station. 
> > > > > > Perhaps it
> > > > > > > is just a forest/trees scenario but I think there are 
> > > > fundamental
> > > > > > > differences in the way the markets react today versus 
the 
> > > > recent 
> > > > > > past......
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > Jayson
> > > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > > From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@x...]
> > > > > > > Sent: Sunday, October 19, 2003 5:38 PM
> > > > > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > > Subject: Objective functions (was RE: [amibroker] Re: 
> > > > > Optimization -
> > > > > > - again)
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > There are a lot of questions and provacative statements 
> in 
> > > your 
> > > > > > post,
> > > > > > > only one of which from my perspective needs an 
> > > answer/response.
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > Market behavior will continually change after that ...
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > Change ? from what ? into what ? I guess this is the 
part 
> I 
> > > > don't
> > > > > > > follow.  To me there is nothing new in market behavior 
> now 
> > > that
> > > > > > > didn't exist last month, last year, last decade, last 
> > > century, 
> > > > but
> > > > > > > clearly those that take a short sighted view of history 
> and 
> > > the
> > > > > > > market action that made up that history will clearly 
> never 
> > > see 
> > > > it.
> > > > > > > It's a forest and trees thing ...
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" 
> > > <dmerrill@xxxx>
> > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > I'm not trying to be argumentative, honest (:-)... 
I'm 
> > more 
> > > > > than a
> > > > > > > little
> > > > > > > > sick of saying the same thing over and over, but I  j 
u 
> s 
> > > t   
> > > > d 
> > > > > o
> > > > > > > n ' t   g
> > > > > > > > e t   i t .
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > ------------------------------
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I fail to see the huge difference in principle 
between 
> > > equity
> > > > > > > feedback and
> > > > > > > > backtesting.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > let's start by assuming that backtesting performance 
of 
> a 
> > > > system
> > > > > > > and its
> > > > > > > > parameters over some period of past data tells you 
> > > something 
> > > > > about
> > > > > > > its
> > > > > > > > future performance. it's not a perfect predictor, but 
> > it's 
> > > > the 
> > > > > > best
> > > > > > > evidence
> > > > > > > > we have. does this seem like a reasonable starting 
> point? 
> > > what
> > > > > > > alternative
> > > > > > > > is there?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > if that's true, why is it better to do it only once? 
> what
> > > > > > > justification is
> > > > > > > > there for picking one examination period over 
another? 
> > > clearly
> > > > > > > market
> > > > > > > > behavior will change continually after that. don't we 
> > need 
> > > a 
> > > > > way 
> > > > > > of
> > > > > > > working
> > > > > > > > that looks at what's been happening and evolves our 
> > > response?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > sounds like we examine performance up to some point 
and 
> > > > adjust,
> > > > > > > trade with
> > > > > > > > the best-choice system and parameters for a while, 
then 
> > > > examine 
> > > > > > and
> > > > > > > adjust
> > > > > > > > again later. make sense? what alternative is there?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > so then, how often do we re-examine performance 
> history? 
> > to 
> > > > put 
> > > > > it
> > > > > > > > differently, how long do we ignore any changes in 
> market 
> > > > > dynamics
> > > > > > > that may
> > > > > > > > or may not have occurred? why would intermittently 
> > refusing 
> > > > to 
> > > > > > look
> > > > > > > and
> > > > > > > > respond improve system performance or reliability?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > if that needs to be done, why not have the system 
> itself 
> > do 
> > > > it, 
> > > > > as
> > > > > > > part of
> > > > > > > > its inherent operation? why is it better for us as an 
> > > outside 
> > > > > > agent
> > > > > > > to
> > > > > > > > periodically run some separate tests, reach into the 
> > > > internals 
> > > > > of
> > > > > > > the
> > > > > > > > system, and change stuff?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > or should we just continue with the system and 
> parameters 
> > > we 
> > > > > > choose
> > > > > > > at the
> > > > > > > > beginning? are they somehow more valid than what we'd 
> > > choose 
> > > > > > later,
> > > > > > > using
> > > > > > > > the same backtesting methods, but on a different date 
> > range 
> > > > of 
> > > > > > data?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > ------------------------------
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > I realize that even if it seems to make sense 
> logically, 
> > > this 
> > > > > all 
> > > > > > a
> > > > > > > complete
> > > > > > > > crock if no systems put together like this even 
> backtest 
> > > well,
> > > > > > > never mind
> > > > > > > > forward testing.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > but every time I think about abandoning this line of 
> > > > research, 
> > > > > it
> > > > > > > seems like
> > > > > > > > the first thing I'd want to do with a new system 
would 
> be 
> > > > (let 
> > > > > me
> > > > > > > guess),
> > > > > > > > test and possibly adjust it using data up to some 
date, 
> > > then 
> > > > run
> > > > > > > with it for
> > > > > > > > a while after that and see if equity growth is good. 
if 
> > it 
> > > > is, 
> > > > > I'd
> > > > > > > want to
> > > > > > > > lather, rinse and repeat with other in and out of 
> sample 
> > > > data, 
> > > > > to
> > > > > > > make sure
> > > > > > > > that wasn't coincidence.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > sounds way too familiar to be a completely different 
> > animal.
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > dave
> > > > > > > >   From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@x...]
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >   That IS what I was trying to say.  I suspect 
because 
> > > equity 
> > > > > feed
> > > > > > > back
> > > > > > > >   is like looking in a rear view mirror, great for 
> > letting 
> > > us 
> > > > > know
> > > > > > > >   where we were and how we could have adjusted the 
past 
> > to 
> > > > make 
> > > > > it
> > > > > > > >   better, but that's about it.
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > 
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