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<SPAN
class=016265511-20102003>come on fred, I'm serious, you know what I'm
asking.
<SPAN
class=016265511-20102003>
<SPAN
class=016265511-20102003>we don't need to know specifically how far up something
will go, that's just one way of knowing something about when it will go back
down.
<SPAN
class=016265511-20102003>
<SPAN
class=016265511-20102003>the point is to profit for our trades. that requires
buying lower than we sell. what aspects of market behavior have been constant
over time that enable us to do that?
<SPAN
class=016265511-20102003>
<SPAN
class=016265511-20102003>dave
<BLOCKQUOTE
>In
order to make money, which is what I thought the goal was, do we really
need to know how high is up etc. ? --- In
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" <dmerrill@xxxx>
wrote:> knowing that the markets go up and down isn't tradable
knowledge. you have> to know something about *which* of those two
things will happen, to which> stocks, when, and/or how far. as far
as I know, patterns on those levels do> change over time, or at
least the lengths over which they cycle change.> > what
*tradable* market behaviors are there that are constant over time?>
> dave> From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@xxxx]>
> Uhhh ... the ups and the downs ... as far as I can tell
marlets have> pretty much done that since the beginning
of time. Nothing much> different about it in my view
today the it was in any other time> frame.>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
<dmerrill@xxxx>> wrote:> > I'm
serious fred. what kinds of tradable market behaviors are
you> talking> > about that aren't
related to things that change over time?>
>> > basic example: virtually every description of
market behavior I'm> aware of> >
has time constants, trigger levels, and other "static"
features> whose best> > performing
values migrate or cycle over time. it seems unlikely
on> the face> > of it that the
point where some specific MA crosses another> specific MA
is a> > quasi-permanently useful switch point, for
instance. what inherent> mechanism>
> of market behavior that makes this optimum, as opposed to
some> other pair of> > MAs? is it
really possible that these specific parameter values
are> > constant, given all the changes in the
economy, the trading> population,> >
analysis technology, etc?> >> >
you must be talking about some other level of behavior
that's> constant in> > some
pan-historical sense, but I'm lost without an example of a>
tradable> > feature like this.>
>> > (it's interesting to me that auto-optimizing
system don't have> those kinds> > of
static parameters in the same sense. yes, they have specifics
of> course,> > like constraints on
the range of each parameter, time constants on>
their> > learning behaviors, and a definition of an
equity metric. but they> make no>
> assumptions about what time constants or crossover levels
work> well, they> > just try 'em and
see.)> >> >
dave> >> > forest
(:-)> >> > what kinds
of tradable market behavior should we be looking> at/for
that> > transcend the "short-sighted view of history" we
*shouldn't* be> looking for?>
>> > dave>
>> > This makes me want to
ask what your longest possible time frame> is
?> >> >
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill"
<dmerrill@xxxx>> >
wrote:> > > well yes, you're
right, the same stuff is always happening.>
prices> > go
up,> > > prices go down, and
they always have.> >
>> > > but that's not
useful info to trade on. what we care about is>
> trends of some>
> > kind that can be predicted/hoped to continue
or reverse in> some>
> particular>
> > time frame. that's knowledge we can profit
from. and those> trends>
> come and>
> > go constantly, on every time scale. these
shorter-term moves> are>
> what we>
> > trade.>
> >>
> > here's my question I guess: if I only see
behavior that never> >
changes over> > > the longest
possible time frame, what do I see that I can use?>
> >>
> > dave>
> > There are a lot of questions and
provacative statements in> your>
> post,>
> > only one of which from my
perspective needs an> answer/response.>
> >>
> > Market behavior will continually
change after that ...> >
>> > > Change
? from what ? into what ? I guess this is the part I>
don't> > >
follow. To me there is nothing new in market behavior
now> that>
> > didn't exist last month, last
year, last decade, last> century, but>
> > clearly those that take a short
sighted view of history and> the>
> > market action that made up that
history will clearly never> see it.>
> > It's a forest and trees thing
...
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