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Hi DT,
Tuesday, July 1, 2003, 4:48:53 AM, you wrote:
DT> Yuki,
DT> I am affraid I read, behind the curtain, the
DT> suspicious "simple"="bullish".
Not from me, you don't. ^_^ My time frame has become shorter and
shorter, as you know.
Simple to me means responding to (acting upon) what is happening in
the market right now, rather than trying to figure out why the market
is "wrong" or what the market is going to do next. This market may
(or may not) make a U-turn in the next two weeks. The Dow may be at
5,000 by Halloween. I don't know. I do know however that I would be
riding short positions time after time after time if that came to
pass. And I would not be trusting any of those down trends any more
or any less than I would be trusting the current up trend.
DT> We should not repeat the same mistake.
DT> Trend is a just a friend till the end, but, no more...
Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose.
There is no difference (to me) between the market of the 90s and the
market right now. The only difference (probably a difference, one
could argue almost certainly will be a difference, but at this moment
until proven otherwise not a difference) is the length of time that a
trend may persist.
There was no "proven" trend at any time in the 90s that was safe to
climb onboard. Mr. Greenspan (since you brought his name up)
suggested that the trend had gone too far in, I believe it was,
December of '96 with his "irrational exuberance" speech. A put in
his name at that time would have expired worthless of course. A
short on his opinion would have reduced one to penury.
The "safety" or "proven-ness" of that entire bull market trend exists
only in hindsight. It could have ended at any time. There was never
a guarantee that anyone buying into it was not buying the all-time
top. Never. It was never, ever, safe. Except in hindsight, which
does none of us any good at all.
DT> On the other side, Mr Greenspan favorite game seems to be, day by
DT> day, the "Inflate or Die".
Yes, I'm well aware of what the world's central bankers are up to
(Mr. Greenspan has a lot of allies in this quest). But to tell you
the truth I try and filter this out as much as possible. If they are
up to something that will affect the market, it will show up on my
charts. I won't be able to miss it. And indeed it has shown up, and I
didn't.
DT> I don´t trust this kind of trend. Profit taking should be the
DT> science of the day... DT
Plus ca change, plus c’est la meme chose!!!
What I want to know, however . . . is what kind of trend *do* you
trust? ^^_^^ I don't "trust" *any* trend. Ever. I expect them all
to break down. That's why I take profits.
Hell, I don't even "trust" the markets, knowing full well they are
full of scoundrels who act in concert at times to fleece the unwary
and the naive. "Trust" is simply not a word I associate at all with
"markets" or "trading". I still expect every trade I make to be a
loser, and am delighted when that expectation is wrong.
So . . . nothing much has changed for me. The subject line of this
thread says it all to me. The quest for something that is
impossible. Perhaps it was just bad wording.
Best,
Yuki
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