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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DIMITRIS,
>
> Monday, June 30, 2003, 8:56:05 PM, you wrote:
>
> DT> As for the Daveīs comment, what would "the first 6-year-old
> DT> child" say back in Jan2000 for the present "trend"?
>
> I'm surprised at you for such a question. ^^_^^
>
> The child would have said "up". (And, the child would have been
> right, and, if the trader who queried the child managed both trades
> and money well, the trader smart enough to listen to the child would
> have made money . . . until about 2 months later when the trader
> would have suffered some losses, the magnitude of those losses
> depending on the traders discipline and money management
techniques.)
>
> The child eventually would have said "down" of course, and the only
> question is, what is the child's "look back period", and I said this
> is the real basic choice one has to make. You make this choice
based
> on your capitalization, and your capacity for risk, and your
> emotional temperament, or on some combination of those things. One
> size does not fit all.
>
> And what if you'd asked that child the same question some time early
> in '99? Or '95? Or '96? The child would have made a fortune for
> you. Of course the child will ultimately be "wrong", because every
> trend, every single last one, will eventually turn. And no one knows
> when that is finally going to happen.
>
> We can certainly make educated guesses about it, but we certainly
> cannot prove that a trend will end at a particular point in time, or
> that it will not end. So, no "proof" about trend exists, in my
book.
> What exists is evidence of trending and non-trending periods. When
> we see evidence of a trending period's beginning, we want to ride
> that trend. What is that evidence? I believe I stated this.
Basically
> a directional move that survives a counter move and then goes on to
> continue to plow new ground in the same direction. And it's just
> about that simple.
>
> Flawless? We both know much better. But it's about as basic as you
> get in this business, and it's certainly something that can pay a
lot
> of bills. People lose money constantly in this business trying to
> predict trend changes (they get out too early, and vertigo keeps
them
> from ever getting back in, or even worse, they take a position
> against the main trend, and get chewed up time after time after time
> trying to guess the turn, instead of betting that the trend will
> *not* change, and being willing to take the loss when that bet
> finally fails, as it eventually must).
>
> I'm long a bunch of stuff right now that I'm not particularly too
> happy about. But it keeps making new highs after pullbacks. I am
not
> about to lose money watching it continue without me, or trying to
> short it because the "valuation" is too high. I will continue to
> take money off the table to lock in profits, and eventually I'll get
> blown out of the remaining positions, one by one. C'est la vie. So
> I have no opinion about this current trend. I only know that at the
> moment it is ongoing. I found long ago that opinions about the
> market cost way to much money in carrying charges. Opinions often
> make it psychologically very difficult to do what I absolutely must
> do in order to succeed. So I try, very very hard, not to have any
> opinions.
>
> Will happily look at the other thread you referenced when I get a
> chance. You always have interesting and good ideas, DT.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
But sometimes simple is very, very good. ^_-
> Best,
>
> Yuki
Yuki,
I am affraid I read, behind the curtain, the
suspicious "simple"="bullish".
We should not repeat the same mistake.
Trend is a just a friend till the end, but, no more...
You know, my favorite game back in 80s was the Super-QIX.
I could trust the accuracy of my movements more than the prediction
of the monster next movement.
On the other side, Mr Greenspan favorite game seems to be, day by
day, the "Inflate or Die".
You know better perhaps the inevitable result, the market may loose
its directionality [the basis of my systems and, perhaps, my whole
StockMarket logic]
Money is cheap now, cheaper than before, but, volumes augmentation is
not proportional.
The recent result is a prolonged uptrend without serious fundamentals.
Sometimes I think what walks like a duck and swims like a duck and
quacks like a duck, may be not a duck but a fuzzy bear, pretending
the hibernal torpor.
We will suppose it is a duck, but, it will be probably [another]
mistake.
OK, I donīt go Short the last month, but, I donīt trust this kind of
trend.
Profit taking should be the science of the day...
DT
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