|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Yuki,
I will try to give a more technical description of the situation:
According to many [reliable]technical indications the recent N100
trend [counted from Feb13, 2003] was terminated by June 17.
The measure** of this trend was >450units, unexpectedly high for the
last 3 years[the previous highs were 288, 183, 318, 258units].
This fact makes me cautious to go Short, the market will not loose
this extra "energy" at once.
If the trend is over, I do not expect new highs, the next peaks
should be lower than June17.
This fact makes me cautious to go Long with the present local lows.
I dont like to be cautious, it makes me nervous.
After June17 I stay 10%-15% invested for small Long movements with
targets +4% to +5%.
This fact makes me nervous too.
The expectation for better retracements is a reason [explanation] for
moderate Volumes the last two weeks.
DT
**see #28220, #28224 messages for the measure of a trend. I suppose
Mr Heizo Takenaka is not interested for such humble technical
details...
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi DT,
>
> Tuesday, July 1, 2003, 4:48:53 AM, you wrote:
>
> DT> Yuki,
> DT> I am affraid I read, behind the curtain, the
> DT> suspicious "simple"="bullish".
>
> Not from me, you don't. ^_^ My time frame has become shorter and
> shorter, as you know.
>
> Simple to me means responding to (acting upon) what is happening in
> the market right now, rather than trying to figure out why the
market
> is "wrong" or what the market is going to do next. This market may
> (or may not) make a U-turn in the next two weeks. The Dow may be at
> 5,000 by Halloween. I don't know. I do know however that I would
be
> riding short positions time after time after time if that came to
> pass. And I would not be trusting any of those down trends any more
> or any less than I would be trusting the current up trend.
>
> DT> We should not repeat the same mistake.
> DT> Trend is a just a friend till the end, but, no more...
>
> Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.
>
> There is no difference (to me) between the market of the 90s and the
> market right now. The only difference (probably a difference, one
> could argue almost certainly will be a difference, but at this
moment
> until proven otherwise not a difference) is the length of time that
a
> trend may persist.
>
> There was no "proven" trend at any time in the 90s that was safe to
> climb onboard. Mr. Greenspan (since you brought his name up)
> suggested that the trend had gone too far in, I believe it was,
> December of '96 with his "irrational exuberance" speech. A put in
> his name at that time would have expired worthless of course. A
> short on his opinion would have reduced one to penury.
>
> The "safety" or "proven-ness" of that entire bull market trend
exists
> only in hindsight. It could have ended at any time. There was
never
> a guarantee that anyone buying into it was not buying the all-time
> top. Never. It was never, ever, safe. Except in hindsight, which
> does none of us any good at all.
>
> DT> On the other side, Mr Greenspan favorite game seems to be, day
by
> DT> day, the "Inflate or Die".
>
> Yes, I'm well aware of what the world's central bankers are up to
> (Mr. Greenspan has a lot of allies in this quest). But to tell you
> the truth I try and filter this out as much as possible. If they
are
> up to something that will affect the market, it will show up on my
> charts. I won't be able to miss it. And indeed it has shown up, and
I
> didn't.
>
> DT> I donīt trust this kind of trend. Profit taking should be the
> DT> science of the day... DT
>
> Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!!!
>
> What I want to know, however . . . is what kind of trend *do* you
> trust? ^^_^^ I don't "trust" *any* trend. Ever. I expect them
all
> to break down. That's why I take profits.
>
> Hell, I don't even "trust" the markets, knowing full well they are
> full of scoundrels who act in concert at times to fleece the unwary
> and the naive. "Trust" is simply not a word I associate at all with
> "markets" or "trading". I still expect every trade I make to be a
> loser, and am delighted when that expectation is wrong.
>
> So . . . nothing much has changed for me. The subject line of this
> thread says it all to me. The quest for something that is
> impossible. Perhaps it was just bad wording.
>
> Best,
>
> Yuki
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Get A Free Psychic Reading! Your Online Answer To Life's Important Questions.
http://us.click.yahoo.com/Lj3uPC/Me7FAA/ySSFAA/GHeqlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
-----------------------------------------
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
--------------------------------------------
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|