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<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>Nice post Cliff,
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>Just some comments to keep the discussion
going...imho:
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
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C:
"...we cannot predict the future as we can only review the
past..."
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>Almost every trader follows certain rules, some rules are followed by
many traders and become market anomalies, almost every trader creates rules to
exploit anomalies. Round and round we go.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
C:"...The
history of profitable trading is the proper determination of future
value..."
<SPAN
class=640153102-14022003>The proper determination of future value might still
have value for long term investors, but
not for active traders. The winds have
changed...
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>
C:
"...The point being, that price action is only a small of the picture we are
trying to paint."
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>Small price actions are the result of non-related factors (order
placements, etc.) and are mostly Random, price patterns have by definition
some predictive value and are the result of trader behavior, long term price
movements are driven by external market forces (economy etc). There are many
time-frames from which to view the market, all are legit, however for best
results we must know which one we are working.
<FONT face="Courier New" color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Herman
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: slyde88
<csoderback@xxxxxxx> [mailto:csoderback@xxxxxxx]Sent:
Thursday, February 13, 2003 2:56 PMTo:
amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re: AB and Neural
Networks [was: The Transcendental use of Data in
Optimizations]> Cliff,> A reactive
system, ie a system we expect to react under some > conditions known
from the past experience, ie a system we predict its > reaction, ie
a predictive system.> As long as stockmarkets are not deterministic
sets of data, > prediction will be the path from A to Z.> Of
course, prediction has a lot of names, a lot of shapes or colours,
> but, it always remains the same : Our ambition to conquer the
unknown > next moment.> You may tune your trading systems to
the future, try to be ahead of > your time reference and then, it
is a relativistic causatum, the > present will be an event of the
past.> It is not always easy, we do not see a perfect eclipse everyday,
but, > when it comes [supposed you are there] it is
magnificent.> You need to be there, when the prediction moment is
mature and take > the money and run.> Run to the next
space-time position and wait, preparing your best > tools.> The
next moment will be unique. Whish you will be there, else, some >
other time perhaps.> Dimitris TsokakisActually what we
have is a Paradox, we cannot predict thefuture as we can only review the
past. We can make a guessat the future by past actions or we can project
the past intothe future.The history of profitable trading is the
proper determinationof future value. Future value being the price at which
anythingcan be sold at a specific time.The tools we have are used
to obtain as much information possibleto try to determine future value.
Any tidbit of information thatmight be considered must be gathered and be
weighed by our tradingsystems. With the flexibility AB we can enter most
any informationand weigh its value. The point being, that price action is
only a small of the picture we are trying to
paint.
Cliff sPost
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