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Mroman,
Yes, I've read the book. And yes, it did teach me
something about trading systems that most of the
experienced system developers on this board
already know--a trading system should not aim for
high accuracy trades, but rather be based on the
old cliche "cut your losses short but let your
profits run". Beatingthetrend, as it's written,
cuts losses to 10% and limits wins to 12%. Because
it's a trend reversal system, it is very dangerous
to try to let your profits run, so a better system
in terms of expectancy (refer to Tharp's book for
definition/explanation) is to go with the trend and
just let it run--do the exact opposite of
beatingthetrend, with a trailing stop, and you will
probably have a higher expectancy system.
I would be happy to post the system except for
possibly copyright violations--however, the basic
signal is very well known by any technical analyst
as:
Lrb=High<Ref(High,-1) AND Low<Ref(Low,-1) AND
Close>(Low+High)/2;
Filter=Lrb;
Buy=Filter;
when the high is less than yesterday's high, the
low is less than yesterday's low, but the close is
greater than halfway of the range. I'm leaving out
the volume indicators and other specifics to the
system that you could probably figure out on your
own. Also, the reverse for shorting is a very
poor signal, with negative expectancy. Thanks for
the info on the yahoo discussion group related to
the system--I'll check it out. It does make for
an interesting "tweakable" system to one that
may be profitable.
Walid
--- mroman59 <mroman59@xxxx> wrote:
> Thanks for the information on Beating The Trend. I
> take it that you
> have read the boook? Unfortunately the book is now
> $49 an not $30
> dollars now, but still comes with money back
> guarantee. I recently
> found some users of the system. They started a Yahoo
> site called
> Trendreversals. They stated that one could go broke
> if you tried to
> play each trade generated and implied that their was
> no shortage of
> trades. They have modified the forumula and discuss
> their picks each
> morning. The formula modification was intended to
> cut down the number
> of possible trades and identify what they consider
> the best of them.
> They claim that their success rate is very high, but
> this includes
> strick money management and stop losses techniques.
> Some traders only
> play BBT Long trades for three days only and shorts
> are for 1 day
> only.
>
> Did you receive the software along with the book?
> How did you like
> the program ie. were you able to or even try to
> modify the formula in
> the software that comes with the book? It sounds
> like you chose to
> code it in AmiBroker rather than use the software
> that comes with the
> Book. Besides the formula, did you learn anything
> useful about
> trading? Can you suggest and similar AFL codes or
> books on reversal
> bars strategy that I can use in AmiBroker. Are any
> of the library
> scripts provided with AmiBroker on trendreversal
> similar to BTT?
>
> Thanks
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, Walid Atia <walid_atia@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Beatingthetrend is nothing more than a long
> reversal
> > bar system, with some volatility and volume
> related
> > indicators added. It is very easy to code in AFL
> > (about 5 lines), and the results over the long
> term
> > are only about 55% probability of win. Since the
> > overall win/loss ratio is around 1, this is not a
> > very exciting system as tested over the last
> several
> > years. But, it has periods where it does
> extremely
> > well (~70% win rate). Finding an overall
> > index-related
> > indicator for which the system success correlated
> > with would be most useful, telling you when to use
> > it or not. Another issue is that there are very
> > few signals generated by the system.
> >
> > You might as well plunk down the $30 to buy the
> ebook,
> > since it comes with a money-back guarantee. It is
> > interesting an well-written, just not the 70%
> > accuracy it implies.
> >
> > Walid
> >
> > --- mroman59 <mroman59@xxxx> wrote:
> > > I don't have the book and I don't know the
> system. I
> > > was inquiring if
> > > anyone was using it to see if they like it and
> would
> > > explain more
> > > about it. AmiBroker already has written scripts
> > > which may be similar
> > > to BTT trading method. Without giving forumla, I
> > > could start with
> > > similar script and modify by asking questions.
> If
> > > the person using it
> > > really think it is great then I will buy the
> book on
> > > their
> > > recommendation. If they don't like it and give
> > > reason for, then I
> > > would consider their opinion. Also, an
> experienced
> > > trader could look
> > > at the web site avertisement www.beatingthetrend
> and
> > > probably tell
> > > what kind of trading strategy it is. I am not
> > > experience and yet I
> > > can speculate that it may be some kind of
> > > trendreveral script or what
> > > is also called a "Dead Cat Bounce". I stated
> this in
> > > my prior post.
> > > Correct me if I am wrong. I think it would be
> copy
> > > right violation is
> > > I posted the script i.e. if I knew it, but if I
> > > modified it and then
> > > posted it would not be a violation. If I posted
> the
> > > E-Book on the web
> > > for you to look at then it would definetly be a
> copy
> > > write violation.
> > > The advertisement for the E-Book, again, is at
> > > www.beatingthetrend.
> > >
> > > Comments anyone.
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Alex Goykhman"
> > > <agoykhman@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Why don't you post a description of the system
> > > (not the book itself,
> > > > that would be a copyright violation) here and
> see
> > > if someone can
> > > make an
> > > > AFL script out of it.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: mroman59 [mailto:mroman59@x...]
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, April 24, 2002 9:58 AM
> > > > To: amibroker@xxxx
> > > > Subject: [amibroker] Beating The Tend
> > > >
> > > > Has anyone purchased the E-Book called Beating
> The
> > > Trend at web
> > > site
> > > > www.beatingthetrend.com. Have you written a
> script
> > > in AmiBroker for
> > > > its trading methodology. What has been your
> > > results and or
> > > > modifications to it? Do you know similar
> scripts
> > > for this trading
> > > > style? I think it it considered a dead cat
> bounce
> > > or trendreversal.
> > > > Please tell me what you think.
> > > > Thanks
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the
> Yahoo!
> > > > <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> Terms of
> > > Service.
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > __________________________________________________
> > Do You Yahoo!?
> > Yahoo! Games - play chess, backgammon, pool and
> more
> > http://games.yahoo.com/
>
>
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