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Bill,
Thank you very much for reply and suggestions.
If you have the time, can you give me a clear and specific example
how to get Aprilīs ^NDX low.
Where is the beginning of time, which price level, why 23% and not
50% or 61.8% etc.
Since you deal a lot with the subject, we could all benefit from your
experience and use Amibroker available tools better.
In the case you do not have ^NDX data, they are available from your
Amiquote.
Thank you in advance.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "wavemechanic" <wd78@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris:
>
> First, for the tools that you are using you have to adjust
periodicity to the time frame. With these tools, if you are going to
analyze long periods of time larger periodicity should be used. It
makes no sense to use a tool such as Fibonacci time when it is preset
at a maximum number that cannot reach the end of the move, as well as
being relatively insensitive at the longer times. In addition, as
you change periodicity (and sometimes even markets) you will have to
learn what parameters to use for the indicators. Unfortunately, I do
not seem to be able to adjust the parameters for two MACD charts
independently, so in the attached daily example I only show one, but
you can check the standard 12/26/9 setting versus the one below. In
addition, you will have to learn what indicators work best,
especially for daily and intraday trading, including a number that
are not standard in AB. Also, at least in my experience, the lower
the periodicity the more refined the Fibonacci and similar studies
have to become, extending beyond what is currently available. For
example, using standard Fibonacci time analysis from 3/24/00 to
9/1/00 produces a 1.618 time target of 5/22/01 (on target). In
practice, one runs a number of such segments and looks for time
clusters. Similarly, one can look for price clusters. One also
needs to be able under some conditions to do the analysis with
calendar days, not trading days - particularly for Gann studies,
which have the advantage of being able to project from a single
point. In all cases, one looks for price and time to converge in
conjunction with indicator reinforcement. When that occurs you are
probably at a critical point. This is not a systems approach to
trading, but rather one based on line-type studies that many find
work quite well.
>
> In your example, there is no attempt to project price, just time
with a relatively crude study (Fibonacci time study) that is
mismatched for the periodicity and time frame chosen. Given time and
price projections, appropriate use of indicators will help pick out
the critical point when more than one is present, which is often the
case. Most find that they have to spend a fair amount of time
studying various aspects of this approach, as it is not a cookbook
approach to trading. So do not be surprised it you do not succeed
the first time, especially if all of the required tools are not
available to you. The current tools, however, are most probably OK
for the type of mutual fund trading that I think Nate does, and the
previous example is right up those lines. In that example, Nate
would have traded 3-4 times during the year and captured a good part
of the move from 120 to 34. Not bad.
>
> Bill
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Dimitris Tsokakis
> To: amibroker@xxxx
> Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2001 2:35 PM
> Subject: [amibroker] NDX, Fib time and MACD
>
>
> If I begin from the March 2000 High, I am quite out of April 2001
low.
> (27 days and the worse thing is that the next vertical line will
be much later)
> If I begin from minor Sept 2000 high, I buy 5 days before April
2001 low.
> (There is a simple question here: Why I have to buy? Shall I buy
in any
> Fib vertical line?)
> As for MACD, what is the proposal?
> Buy at A, sorry, a whipsaw, buy again at B, sorry, sell at C,
sorry, buy
> again at D and this will be your lucky time?
> This is not serious.
> In other words, the main problem with MACD is the well known
> whipsaws which may cause a great damage, especially if you are
the type
> of day-trader who would risk to buy the day before.
> My question for Fibonacci sequences is simple :Where is the
begining of
> "time". As I read, at a distinct high or law. Is this correct?
> Any answer appreciated.
> Best regards
> Dimitris Tsokakis
>
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