|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
There are a zillion ways to go with this stuff. But first it is important to note, imo, that there is no absolute way to predict price and time. There are techniques that have been shown to provide good "heads up" targets. A number of Fibonacci and Gann studies fall into this category. These studies in conjunction with standard indicators provide good projections and "heads up" warnings. The attached QQQ chart shows the Fibonacci time cycle study available in AmiBroker, a .786 Fibonacci expansion of AB, and run-of-the-mill MACD. MACD would have gotten you short near the top, out near thebottom, and depending on what other voodoo you use given you some minor whipsaw action in the middle. The important thing in this case, however, is to look for concurrence between MACD, Fibonacci time target, and Fibonacci price target. There are other studies, particularly in the Gann area, thatjust use the initial price to project targets with the same accuracy. Etc., etc., etc. Not rocket science, but one can make a buck.
Bill
----- Original Message -----
From: Dr. S. Nathan Berger
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, July 29, 2001 11:10 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Re: The Holy Grail of Market Timers
Dear Dimitris,
Let me first thank you, Bill, Anthony and Karl for responding to the
request for a consensus regarding market timers.
I went through the postings at our own AFL Library this morning, and was
nearly overwhelmed by the sheer number of listings for indicators, be they
trend-followers, oscillatios, or miscellaneous indicators which are leading
or coincident. Many of the listings are yours, and the good-will feelings
you enjoy from the group have been well earned by the quality of the work
you have so generously posted so others may enjoy and benefit.
Surely we all agree there is no one single indicator, a "Holy Grail", but
there must be one or two- widely used, and especially productive, which
traders amongst us use, and which would be of great assistance to those of
us less experienced at trading.
Apart from my own 'ulterior motives', I am also sensitive to the needs of
'newbies', who, fortunately for Tomasz, seem to be joining our group in
increasing numbers, and especially sensitive to the needs of those of us
(PARTICULARLY NATE!) who do not know how to program codes for ourselves.
So, yes, let us see if we can do as you suggest, using the early April low
as a common point of reference, and determine a market timer that
accurately reflects market activity during this 'test' period of time.
And perhaps we could continue this as an ongoing project. We all know
market conditions change and formulae that worked last month or last week
are no longer productive.
In difficult markets, such as I feel we have at present, I would welcome a
posting from a group member who is using timing tools that seem to be
especially 'spot on'.
There is one other comment in your letter that should be emphasized:
>If we give clear examples with full documentation, readers
>could compare and judge every system.
I cannot agree more strongly! In attempting to run many of the postings to
the group, I fail- not because I am dumb, but because I do not understand
the nuances involved. Of course I know how to cut and paste, but then if
the codes don't come up as indicators or commentaries or analyses, I just
delete them and move on, thereby missing the possibility of being exposed
to a really great idea.
I hope your suggestion in response to my inquiry, will serve as a Clarion
call for the great pool of talent Amibroker Group represents.
Best regards,
Nate
At 01:32 PM 7/29/01 -0000, you wrote:
>Your interesting mail gave me an idea:
>As we know, the 4,5 and 6 April 2001 we have had a new
>low in ^NDX. (a whishful thought to be the lowest...).
>If we agree, let us give a specific example for that low.
>Some theories predict, some other detect, some other confirm.
>If we give clear examples with full documentation, readers
>could compare and judge every system.
>This is my proposition, I have prepared my homework and if
>the group agree, let us step in.
>Dimitris Tsokakis
Earlier, I had written:
<SNIP>
>>would it be possible to run a "poll", a sort of
>consensus
>> regarding preferred market timers?
>> In browsing other websites, chat rooms and the like, there seems to
>be no
>> end of indicies used for this purpose, but frankly, our group is as
>smart
>> and sophisticated as any other out there! I would like to know what
>our
>> brains are using.
>>
>> For myself, I now trade only no-load mutual funds, so the timing
>systems
>> used for trading futures, etc. are of lesser interest. Can we
>please have
>> some input for general market timers?
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
------=_NextPart_001_012A_01C11830.7BBA7A80
Content-Type: text/html;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4616.200" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>Nate:</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>There are a zillion ways to go with this stuff.
But first it is important to note, imo, that there is no absolute way to predict
price and time. There are techniques that have been shown to provide good
"heads up" targets. A number of Fibonacci and Gann studies fall into
this category. These studies in conjunction with standard indicators
provide good projections and "heads up" warnings. The attached QQQ chart
shows the Fibonacci time cycle study available in AmiBroker, a .786 Fibonacci
expansion of AB, and run-of-the-mill MACD. MACD would have gotten you
short near the top, out near the bottom, and depending on what other voodooyou
use given you some minor whipsaw action in the middle. The important thing
in this case, however, is to look for concurrence between MACD, Fibonacci time
target, and Fibonacci price target. There are other studies, particularly
in the Gann area, that just use the initial price to project targets with the
same accuracy. Etc., etc., etc. Not rocket science, but one canmake
a buck.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT size=2>Bill</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=snberger@xxxx href="mailto:snberger@xxxx";>Dr. S.
Nathan Berger</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Sunday, July 29, 2001 11:10
AM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [amibroker] Re: The Holy
Grail of Market Timers</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV><TT>Dear Dimitris,<BR><BR>Let me first thank you, Bill, Anthony
and Karl for responding to the<BR>request for a consensus regarding market
timers. <BR><BR>I went through the postings at our own AFL Library this
morning, and was<BR>nearly overwhelmed by the sheer number of listings for
indicators, be they<BR>trend-followers, oscillatios, or miscellaneous
indicators which are leading<BR>or coincident. Many of the listings are yours,
and the good-will feelings<BR>you enjoy from the group have been well earned
by the quality of the work<BR>you have so generously posted so others may
enjoy and benefit.<BR><BR>Surely we all agree there is no one single
indicator, a "Holy Grail", but<BR>there must be one or two- widely used, and
especially productive, which<BR>traders amongst us use, and which would be of
great assistance to those of<BR>us less experienced at trading.<BR><BR>Apart
from my own 'ulterior motives', I am also sensitive to the needs
of<BR>'newbies', who, fortunately for Tomasz, seem to be joining our group
in<BR>increasing numbers, and especially sensitive to the needs of those of
us<BR>(PARTICULARLY NATE!) who do not know how to program codes for
ourselves.<BR><BR>So, yes, let us see if we can do as you suggest, using the
early April low<BR>as a common point of reference, and determine a market
timer that<BR>accurately reflects market activity during this 'test' period of
time. <BR><BR>And perhaps we could continue this as an ongoing project. We all
know<BR>market conditions change and formulae that worked last month or last
week<BR>are no longer productive.<BR><BR>In difficult markets, such as I feel
we have at present, I would welcome a<BR>posting from a group member who is
using timing tools that seem to be<BR>especially 'spot on'.<BR><BR>There is
one other comment in your letter that should be emphasized:<BR><BR>>Ifwe
give clear examples with full documentation, readers<BR>>could compareand
judge every system.<BR><BR>I cannot agree more strongly! In attempting torun
many of the postings to<BR>the group, I fail- not because I am dumb, but
because I do not understand<BR>the nuances involved. Of course I know howto
cut and paste, but then if<BR>the codes don't come up as indicators or
commentaries or analyses, I just<BR>delete them and move on, thereby missing
the possibility of being exposed<BR>to a really great idea. <BR><BR>I hope
your suggestion in response to my inquiry, will serve as a Clarion<BR>call for
the great pool of talent Amibroker Group represents.<BR><BR>Best
regards,<BR><BR><BR>Nate<BR><BR>At 01:32 PM 7/29/01 -0000, you
wrote:<BR><BR>>Your interesting mail gave me an idea:<BR>>As we know,
the 4,5 and 6 April 2001 we have had a new<BR>>low in ^NDX. (a whishful
thought to be the lowest...).<BR>>If we agree, let us give a specific
example for that low.<BR>>Some theories predict, some other detect, some
other confirm.<BR>>If we give clear examples with full documentation,
readers<BR>>could compare and judge every system.<BR>>This is my
proposition, I have prepared my homework and if <BR>>the group agree, let
us step in.<BR>>Dimitris Tsokakis<BR><BR><BR>Earlier, I had
written:<BR><SNIP><BR>>>would it be possible to run a "poll",a
sort of <BR>>consensus<BR>>> regarding preferred market
timers?<BR>>> In browsing other websites, chat rooms and the like, there
seems to <BR>>be no<BR>>> end of indicies used for this purpose,but
frankly, our group is as <BR>>smart<BR>>> and sophisticated as any
other out there! I would like to know what <BR>>our<BR>>> brainsare
using.<BR>>> <BR>>> For myself, I now trade only no-load mutual
funds, so the timing <BR>>systems<BR>>> used for trading futures,
etc. are of lesser interest. Can we <BR>>please have<BR>>>some
input for general market timers?<BR><BR></TT><BR><BR><TT>Your
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service</A>.</TT>
<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
------=_NextPart_001_012A_01C11830.7BBA7A80--
Attachment:
gif00085.gif
Attachment:
Description: "Description: GIF image"
|