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Re: The Holy Grail of Market Timers



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Dear Nathan,
Thank you very much for your reply.
Thank you also for morning reading.
(I hope I am not the cause of a probable headache !!)
Amibroker includes excellent tools and my desire is to
be used by all users (PARTICULARLY NATE!).
For this purpose, I suggested a tutorial Amibroker page
and I am prompt to contribute, as a companion to AFL-
Library.
As for the ^NDX April low, I will be ready by the end of 
this month, and I will be glad if other ladies and gentlemen
accept this invitation.
Best regards
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "Dr. S. Nathan Berger" <snberger@xxxx> wrote:
> Dear Dimitris,
> 
> Let me first thank you, Bill, Anthony and Karl for responding to the
> request for a consensus regarding market timers. 
> 
> I went through the postings at our own AFL Library this morning, 
and was
> nearly overwhelmed by the sheer number of listings for indicators, 
be they
> trend-followers, oscillatios, or miscellaneous indicators which are 
leading
> or coincident. Many of the listings are yours, and the good-will 
feelings
> you enjoy from the group have been well earned by the quality of 
the work
> you have so generously posted so others may enjoy and benefit.
> 
> Surely we all agree there is no one single indicator, a "Holy 
Grail", but
> there must be one or two- widely used, and especially productive, 
which
> traders amongst us use, and which would be of great assistance to 
those of
> us less experienced at trading.
> 
> Apart from my own 'ulterior motives', I am also sensitive to the 
needs of
> 'newbies', who, fortunately for Tomasz, seem to be joining our 
group in
> increasing numbers, and especially sensitive to the needs of those 
of us
> (PARTICULARLY NATE!) who do not know how to program codes for 
ourselves.
> 
> So, yes, let us see if we can do as you suggest, using the early 
April low
> as a common point of reference, and determine a market timer that
> accurately reflects market activity during this 'test' period of 
time. 
> 
> And perhaps we could continue this as an ongoing project. We all 
know
> market conditions change and formulae that worked last month or 
last week
> are no longer productive.
> 
> In difficult markets, such as I feel we have at present, I would 
welcome a
> posting from a group member who is using timing tools that seem to 
be
> especially 'spot on'.
> 
> There is one other comment in your letter that should be emphasized:
> 
> >If we give clear examples with full documentation, readers
> >could compare and judge every system.
> 
> I cannot agree more strongly! In attempting to run many of the 
postings to
> the group, I fail- not because I am dumb, but because I do not 
understand
> the nuances involved. Of course I know how to cut and paste, but 
then if
> the codes don't come up as indicators or commentaries or analyses, 
I just
> delete them and move on, thereby missing the possibility of being 
exposed
> to a really great idea. 
> 
> I hope your suggestion in response to my inquiry, will serve as a 
Clarion
> call for the great pool of talent Amibroker Group represents.
> 
> Best regards,
> 
> 
> Nate
> 
> At 01:32 PM 7/29/01 -0000, you wrote:
> 
> >Your interesting mail gave me an idea:
> >As we know, the 4,5 and 6 April 2001 we have had a new
> >low in ^NDX. (a whishful thought to be the lowest...).
> >If we agree, let us give a specific example for that low.
> >Some theories predict, some other detect, some other confirm.
> >If we give clear examples with full documentation, readers
> >could compare and judge every system.
> >This is my proposition, I have prepared my homework and if 
> >the group agree, let us step in.
> >Dimitris Tsokakis
> 
> 
> Earlier, I had written:
> <SNIP>
> >>would it be possible to run a "poll", a sort of 
> >consensus
> >> regarding preferred market timers?
> >> In browsing other websites, chat rooms and the like, there seems 
to 
> >be no
> >> end of indicies used for this purpose, but frankly, our group is 
as 
> >smart
> >> and sophisticated as any other out there! I would like to know 
what 
> >our
> >> brains are using.
> >> 
> >> For myself, I now trade only no-load mutual funds, so the timing 
> >systems
> >> used for trading futures, etc. are of lesser interest. Can we 
> >please have
> >> some input for general market timers?